Why the Russian standoff with the West over Ukraine is so perilous? – Belarus’ President Aleksandr Lukashenko argues against deploying large numbers of troops into Ukraine

WARSAW — President Aleksandr G. Lukashenko of Belarus announced on Monday that Russian troops would return to his country in large numbers, a replay of the military buildup there that preceded Russia’s February invasion of Ukraine.

“This won’t be just a thousand troops,” Mr. Lukashenko told senior military and security officials in Minsk, the Belarusian capital, after a meeting over the weekend with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia in St. Petersburg.

He gave no details on Monday of the size or precise purpose of the new joint force, stirring speculation that Belarus might send troops into Ukraine to help Russia’s flailing military campaign. He could be preparing his country for the arrival of many Russian soldiers who are ill trained, former convicts, and some who don’t have any experience at all.

The Belarusian strongman, who has so far resisted pressure from Moscow to send in his own troops, accused Ukraine, which shares a long border with Belarus, of planning attacks from the south, without citing evidence.

The creation of a joint force with Russia will make it clear to all that Belarus is not a victim of the conflict in Ukraine.

Artyom Shraibman, a Belarusian political analyst now in exile in Warsaw, said Mr. Lukashenko would likely try to resist deploying his own troops in Ukraine because that “would be so dangerous for him on so many levels. It would be catastrophic politically.”

Heavily dependent on Moscow for money, fuel and security assistance, all vital to his own survival after 28 years in power, Mr. Lukashenko is widely believed to be under growing Russian pressure to get more involved in the Ukraine war.

Communications between leaders are critical at times of crisis – and any understanding and trust between Xi and Biden could come into play in the event, for instance, that the two sides’ naval forces slide into a clash in the South China Sea. Biden has known Xi for years and having a channel to the top in Beijing is especially vital now that his counterpart has become synonymous with the Chinese state itself, as “Xi Jinping thought” becomes official doctrine. The lack of such communications between leaders is one reason why the Russian standoff with the West over Ukraine is so perilous.

The two leaders are to meet each other on the sidelines of the Group of 20 summit in Indonesia on Monday. The mood in the room is likely to be different than that in the surrounding area.

Biden, meanwhile, arrived in Asia following a better-than-expected performance by his party in the US midterm elections – with the Democrats projected to keep the Senate in a major victory. Biden voiced confidence Sunday after he was asked if the results allowed him to have a stronger hand on Monday. “I know I’m coming in stronger,” he told reporters.

“Xi will try to emphasize the importance of peace to Putin,” she added. The time is ripe for peace talks between China and Russia due to Russia being impatient with little progress on the battlefield.

But at the summit in Bali, Indonesia, it was clear that while both sides want to avoid a clash now, their goals – China wants to be the preeminent Asian and potentially global power, as does the US – remain fundamentally incompatible.

A senior White House official said Thursday Biden wants to use the talks to “build a floor” for the relationship – in other words, to prevent it from free falling into open conflict. The main objective of the sit-down is not about reaching agreements or deliverables – the two leaders will not release any joint statement afterward – but about gaining a better understanding of each other’s priorities and reducing misconceptions, according to the US official.

Jake Sullivan, a US national security adviser, told reporters that the meeting is unlikely to result in any major breakthrough or dramatic shift in the relationship.

Beijing has low hopes for a reset with Washington. Shi Yinhong, an international relations professor at Renmin University, said it would be an “enormous over-expectation” to believe the meeting can lead to any lasting and significant improvement in bilateral ties.

Officials said the US is seeing China publicly trying to present itself as a proponent of peace – Wang said in Munich on Saturday that Beijing would be introducing a “peace plan” for Ukraine and Russia – and maintain relationships with Europe, while at the same time quietly aiding Russia’s war effort and considering the provision of lethal aid.

Each side blames the other entirely for the state of the relationship and each believes they are faring better than the other in the situation, said Kennedy, who has recently returned from a weeks-long visit to China – a rare opportunity in recent years due to China’s zero-Covid border restrictions.

“The Chinese think they’re winning, the Americans think they’re winning, and so they’re willing to bear these costs. Kennedy said the other side is unlikely to make any significant changes. “All of those things reduce the likelihood of significant adjustments.”

The fact that the leaders are talking face to face is positive, say experts. Keeping dialogue open is crucial for reducing risks of misunderstanding and miscalculations, especially when suspicions run deep and tensions run high.

Equally, Xi’s public comments before the talks that “a statesman should think about and know where to lead his country. He should also think about and know how to get along with other countries and the wider world,” could be seen as an acknowledgment of new responsibility with China now a major world power. But they could also be read as the kind of lecture that Washington once delivered to Chinese leaders that Xi is now taking the opportunity to throw back at the US.

According to Vice President Biden, he wants to lay out how each of the red lines is different when he sits down with China’s President.

I feel like the US or China has not been very precise with what it says about its red lines. And I also don’t think either has been very clear about what positive rewards the other side would reap from staying within those red lines,” said Kennedy, of CSIS.

For Beijing, no red line is starker or more crucial than its claim over Taiwan – a self-governing democracy the Chinese Communist Party has never controlled. Xi views “reunification” with the island as a key unresolved issue on China’s path toward “great rejuvenation,” a sweeping vision he has vowed to achieve by 2049.

China’s foreign ministry blasted the US for “shoving responsibility, shifting blame and spreading false information.”

China responded by launching large scale military exercises around Taiwan that formed an effective blockade; it also halted dialogue with the US in a number of areas, from military, climate change and cross-border crime to drug trafficking.

Now the two leaders are sitting down in the same room – a result of weeks of intensive discussions between the two sides – Taiwan is widely expected to top their agenda. But in a sign of the contentiousness of the issue, barbs have already been traded.

Biden has said he would make no “fundamental concessions” to Xi, and Sullivan has announced plans to brief Taiwan about the talks with an aim to make Taipei feel “secure and comfortable” about US support.

Beijing condemned the plan immediately. “It is egregious in nature. Shortly after the ministry confirmed that Xi would meet Biden at the G20, China’s foreign ministry spoke out against it.

Experts in the US and China say some progress on greater communication and access between the two countries will already be considered a positive outcome – such as restoring suspended climate and military talks.

The summit in Indonesia yielded two important outcomes, according to the US: A joint position that Russia must not use a nuclear weapon in Ukraine and an expected resumption of talks on climate between American and Chinese negotiators, a boost for the COP 27 global climate conference in Egypt.

The US made a statement about their opposition to use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine, as well as the fact that there is agreement that a nuclear war should never be fought.

Leon Panetta, a former CIA chief and White House chief of staff who dealt with US-China relations for many years, expressed cautious optimism after talks on the sidelines of the G20 summit.

“If the result of this meeting is to put the relationship back on a more diplomatic plane, in which instead of beating each other up they can begin a dialogue on the kind of issues that need to be dealt with, I think this meeting could very well be pivotal,” Panetta told CNN’s John King on “Inside Politics.”

Beijing’s Foreign Policy Towards the Cold War: Report from CNN’s Analyzed Report of the US and China’s Cold War

Neither side should try to change or undermine the other system, the Chinese Foreign Ministry said.

So, Washington’s foreign policy has come full circle, since part of Richard Nixon’s motivation in engaging China during the 1970s Cold War deep freeze was to open strategic gaps between Beijing and Moscow.

Both leaders have been courting autocratic regimes. Russia is seeking armaments for its floundering war in Ukraine, and China is hard at work trying to become the center of a new alliance to counter the West. The project has faltered; it is far from a resounding success. But it is very much a work in progress.

Ghitis is a world affairs columnist, and a former CNN producer. She writes for CNN, The Washington Post, and World Politics Review. The views expressed in this commentary are her own. View more opinion on CNN.

Biden at the Kremlin: Running with the Wind: The Case for Democracy in the War between the United States and the Russian Spite of Crime

Shortly after taking office and with the United States still reeling from the attack on the US Capitol, President Joe Biden said “We’ve got to prove democracy works.” Future generations will be considering the question of autocracy or democracy in their PhD thesis, he predicted.

As Biden and Xi were meeting, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky made an emotional, triumphant return to the devastated, now liberated city of Kherson, the one provincial capital that Russian invaders had conquered.

Beijing has long refused to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, or even refer to it as such. It has instead decried Western sanctions and amplified Kremlin talking points blaming the US and NATO for the conflict.

And yet, China and Russia remain close, the world’s two leading autocracies determined to challenge the West and undercut the notion that genuine democracy is the most desirable system of government – lest it come for their jobs.

Biden was overshadowed by Putin this week, with his daring overnight train journey into Kyiv and speech in the Polish capital, a location chosen for its role on NATO’s frontline. Putin’s address to the Russian parliament was a staider affair, sprinkled with his now familiar nuclear threats and conspiracy theories about the West.

Putin decided not to attend the G20 summit, avoiding confrontations with world leaders as he became a pariah on the global stage.

Biden’s re-election as the absolute ruler of China: a video conference call with the Kremlin on Thursday

To be sure, Biden is not the only leader with a strong hand. With his re- election as China’s leader, Xi can now rule for as long as he wants. He doesn’t have to worry about things like elections, a critical press or an opposition party. He is the absolute ruler of the country for a long time to come.

Xi is faced with a mountain of daunting problems. The economy has slowed down so much that China is reluctant to reveal economic data. China has a vaccine that was once used as a tool of global diplomacy. As the world slowly comes back to normal, China is imposing a series of lockdowns because it was affected by the swine flu.

It’s important for the competition to show that democracy works, defeating efforts of countries who want to suppress it and proving that wars of aggression won’t succeed, as well as show that unprovoked wars will not succeed.

The Russians and the Chinese will make a video conference call on Friday with analysts watching to see if the Chinese leader retreats from his support of Putin, as China faces an unprecedented Covid outbreak.

The two leaders will primarily discuss bilateral relations between their countries, and exchange views on regional issues and their strategic partnership, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said on Thursday.

While China claimed impartiality in the Ukraine conflict, it parroted Kremlin lines blaming NATO for starting the conflict, and refused to condemn Moscow.

The Rise and Fall of China: The Implications of Putin’s Revolution in the Confronting World with the Dark Side of the Cold War

But more than 10 months into the grinding war, the world looks much different – and the dynamic between both partners has shifted accordingly, experts say.

But dismissing Putin’s conspiratorial claims and sense that the West is engaged in a long campaign to topple him would be a mistake. Putin may be able to survive a war that kills more Ukrainians and ends up costing Western governments billions, because he can live with the fact that he has control over Russia.

On Thursday, Russia launched what Ukrainian officials described as one of the biggest missile barrages since the war began in February, with explosions rattling villages and cities across Ukraine, damaging civilian infrastructure and killing at least three people.

Ukrainian officials fear that Russia will cause a cascading effect on the power grid as it prepares to launch a big attack on it in order to plunge the country into darkness before Christmas in 2022, as Ukrainians celebrate the New Year and Orthodox Christians look forward to Christmas.

China, too, is growing more isolated in its stance toward Russia, said Alfred Wu, associate professor at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore.

Though India has not condemned Moscow’s invasion outright, Modi told Putin in September that now was not the time for war and urged him to move toward peace.

“Now with domestic issues out of the way, Xi is in a better position to work on Russia,” said Stimson Center’s Sun, referring to his consolidation of power in October.

She said that high energy prices had led to increased trade between the two countries and that they could work together economically.

However, Wu said, the protests, Covid outbreak and consequent economic toll have placed Xi in a more vulnerable position that could mean less material and public support for Russia.

Editor’s Note: A version of this story appeared in CNN’s Meanwhile in China newsletter, a three-times-a-week update exploring what you need to know about the country’s rise and how it impacts the world. Sign up here.

The chaos unleashed by leader Xi Jinping’s abrupt and ill-prepared exit from zero-Covid is spilling over into the new year, as large swathes of the country face an unprecedented Covid wave.

Its tightly-sealed borders are gradually opening up, and Chinese tourists are eager to explore the world again, but some countries appear cautious to receive them, imposing new requirements for a negative Covid test before travel. How rapidly global visitors will return to China is a question.

“We have now entered a new phase of Covid response where tough challenges remain,” Xi said in a nationally televised New Year’s Eve speech. The light of hope is in front of us as we are holding on with great fortitude. Perseverance and solidarity mean victory and we need an extra effort to pull through.

There were more cases than there were patients after the lifting of restrictions last month.

Hospitals are overwhelmed, doctors are stretched to the limit, and crematoriums can’t keep up with the increased number of dead, all because of the country’s fragile health system.

And experts warn the worst is yet to come. While some major metropolises like Beijing may have seen the peak of the outbreak, less-developed cities and the vast rural hinterland are still bracing for more infections.

Hundreds of millions of people from big cities will be returning to their hometowns to savesay savesay savesay is the most important festival for family reunion in china and as the travel rush for lunar new year begins this week hundreds of millions of people from big cities will savesay savesay is the most important festival for

The government has launched a booster campaign for the elderly, but many remain reluctant to take it due to concerns about side effects. Fighting vaccine hesitancy will require significant time and effort, when the country’s medical workers are already stretched thin.

The China Crisis Revisited: China’s Emergence at a Cold War Look Ahead in the Intl-HNK-Mic

China is a vital source of Chinese demand and an increase in their growth will provide a boost to economies that rely on it. There will be more international travel. Rise in demand will put upward pressure on the prices of energy and raw materials.

Other experts also expect the economy to recover after March. In a recent research report, HSBC economists projected a 0.5% contraction in the first quarter, but 5% growth for 2023.

Despite all this uncertainty, Chinese citizens are celebrating the partial reopening of the border after the end of quarantine for international arrivals and the resumption of outbound travel.

The announcement on December 26 that restrictions on travel had been loosened was accompanied by spikes in traffic on travel websites.

Several Chinese nationals overseas told CNN they had been unable or unwilling to return home for the last few years while the lengthy quarantine was still in place. Graduations, weddings, childbirths, deaths were missed because of that stretch.

Foreign embassies and tourism departments in some countries posted invites to Chinese travelers on Chinese social media sites. But others are more cautious, with many countries imposing new testing requirements for travelers coming from China and its territories.

Officials from these countries have pointed to the risk of new variants emerging from China’s outbreak – though numerous health experts have criticized the targeted travel restrictions as scientifically ineffective and alarmist, with the risk of inciting further racism and xenophobia.

China’s reputation and relationship with its neighbors were damaged when it emerged from isolation and will be the key factor in whether it can repair it.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/02/china/china-2023-lookahead-intl-hnk-mic/index.html

The Violation of Democracy: When China and Russia Meteorized the War on the “Front of the Cold War”, as China and Italy toured the world

The lack of top-level face-to-face diplomacy certainly didn’t help, neither did the freeze on in-person exchanges among policy advisers, business groups and the wider public.

The United States Secretary of State, French President, and Dutch Prime Minister are expected to visit Beijing this year, along with the newly elected Prime Minister of Italy.

Tensions over Taiwan, technological containment, and China support for Russia may flare again in the new year, according to a virtual meeting with Putin on December 30 in which Xi highlighted China’s support for Russia.

Both leaders said that they wanted to strengthen strategic coordination, and that they wanted to show more stability into the world, according to Chinese state media.

Wang said Saturday at the Munich Security Conference that China is ready to present its peace proposition for Ukraine in a rare remark that referred to the Ukraine conflict as “warfare.” Ursula Von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, told CNN on Saturday that they need more proof that China isn’t working with Russia.

Notice that it was an open question. In the past, people believed that autocracy would be the better system. How many of you believe in that?

How many believe Russia, China or Iran offer a better model than an open society with all its foibles and challenges? How many believe the US would be better off with a more autocratic president?

Democracy fought back with determination and conviction, as well as being idealistic. The autocrats went on the defensive. populism began to lose steam. Many of the positive trends were forged with great effort and suffered enormous human suffering.

The autocracy brothers wanted their system to be seen as superior by the world in order to quiet any doubts at home. According to the non-partisan democracy monitor, democracy was losing ground for 16 consecutive years. Around 20% of the world’s population live in countries that are called “free countries”, according to research by the organization.

While global strongmen struggled, self-assured “geniuses” like Musk revealed their own weaknesses, and the populations that fed up with tyranny demanded change.

Some of the credit goes to Putin, whose imperialist ploy to conquer neighboring Ukraine struck like a thunderbolt. The ideal was no longer freedom. The battle for democracy was no longer a metaphor. This was a war that involved missiles, destruction and death.

The invasion strengthened NATO in a way that had not been done before. Even Sweden and Finland – countries that had long cherished their neutrality – wanted to join.

The Rise of Women in the “Woman, Life, Freedom” and its Impact on Human Rights: Iran’s Women’s “Oasis”

In Iran, women rose up against the theocracy, fed up with its repressive rules. The regime responded with more violence, killing hundreds according to human rights organizations.

The activists of the “Woman, Life, Freedom” did not plan to continue their fight against the regime. How far will they go? How far will the regime go to snuff them out? How will the rest of the world respond?

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/06/opinions/democracy-china-russia-2023-ghitis/index.html

Trump’s campaign: A battleground for the enigmatic Russian, the populist and the adversarial agenda of China and the West

Donald Trump is starting a new campaign. The British referred to it as a lead balloon. He’s becoming an increasingly isolated, rather pathetic figure after many of his top choices failed in the midterm elections and election deniers fared badly. Even his calls for Republicans to unite behind Kevin McCarthy as the new House Speaker seemed to do little to quell the rebellion this week. The struggle over the speakership seemed to be messy but democracy was on display. Trump’s legal troubles seem endless.

Bolsonaro lost his reelection bid due to his resemblance to Trump. Like Trump, he refused to admit defeat or attend the inauguration of the man who defeated him, President Luiz Inácio “Lula” da Silva. Bolsonaro decamped to Florida.

In the UK, the populist Boris Johnson lost the premiership and after an embarrassing interlude with the hapless Liz Truss, the decidedly non-populist centrist, Rishi Sunak, became prime minister. Back when Johnson was leading his country out of the European Union, populists across Europe wanted their own versions of Brexit. We don’t hear that anymore. French President Emmanuel Macron defeated his populist opponent, Marine Le Pen who, like other European populists, had to run from her record of closeness to Putin.

In addition to fortifying NATO and strengthening alliances, which President Joe Biden’s administration has accomplished with great success, the US must aim to forestall the creation of a credible, unified force of aggressive antidemocratic regimes.

But the rule of the strongest doesn’t work when you can’t win, which is how Russia’s plans started to unravel, and China had to rethink its commitment.

Is the relationship with Putin getting worse or better? It looks like Xi wants it both ways. He wants the relationship with a country that has invaded its neighbor without provocation, but he’s trying to present himself as a responsible global leader; an alternative to the democratic Western model for other countries to follow.

According to US intelligence, Russia has bought artillery shells from North Korea, another notorious dictatorship, which denies its involvement in a war whose morality is beyond the pale.

Iranian drones have been one of the weapons of choice as Russia kills Ukrainian civilians and destroys Ukraine’s infrastructure. Tehran first denied it was arming Russia, saying it “has not and will not” provide weapons to Russia.

Tehran, which has a repressive and interventionist regime, is being courted by both Moscow and Beijing.

This week, Ebrahim Raisi became the first Iranian president to visit China in 20 years. The trip, at Xi’s invitation, ostensibly aims to implement an agreement for a 25-year strategic cooperation pact the two reached at a meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in 2021.

The Beijing-Tehran ties have raised alarms among both Democrats and Republicans in Congress, who fear China’s support could help Tehran evade sanctions related to its nuclear and conventional weapons programs, support for terrorism and human rights abuses.

Clearly, there’s an internal contradiction in Xi’s dual goals. If you want to elevate your standing to that of a respected global leader, it’s hard to create an alliance of rule-breaking autocrats and assorted dictators, and then expect other countries to join enthusiastically.

China has reiterated its calls for a political settlement to the Ukraine conflict on the one-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion, as Beijing comes under increasing pressure from the United States and its allies over its growing partnership with Moscow.

Territorial and sovereignty integrity of all countries will be respected in China’s proposal, Wang said, adding that Beijing will continue to work for peace.

Wang said that the conflict was caused by Western allies, such as the U.S., and that NATO should stop trying to mess up Asia.

Ursula Von der Leyen said that they need more proof that China isn’t working with Russia.

Nuland said that the US has warned Beijing against giving lethal support to the Russian’s request for weapons. The topic of this was discussed by the Secretary of State and the Chinese Foreign Minister during a trip to Germany.

The previous post wrongly said the first Chinese official to visit Russia since the start of the war in Ukranian was this visit. It is the first visit by China’s top diplomat since the Russian invasion.

Western officials have raised concerns that China may possibly provide lethal military assistance to Russia.

The officials wouldn’t say what the US has seen suggesting a shift in China’s posture, but they did say that US officials had given intelligence to their allies and partners at the conference.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken raised the issue when he met with his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, on Saturday on the sidelines of the conference, officials said.

A senior State Department official said the Secretary warned about the consequences of China giving material support to Russia or helping them dodge sanctions.

The Russian War on the Warsaw Scale and the Security of the Second World War II: China vs. the USA in a Cold War

“This warfare cannot continue to rage on. Wang told the conference that they needed to think about what efforts would bring this warfare to an end.

“To date, we have seen Chinese companies – and, of course, in China there is really no distinction between private companies and the state – we have seen them provide non-lethal support to … Russia for use in the Ukraine,” Blinken said.

“The concern that we have now is based on information we have that they’re considering providing lethal support. We made it clear to them that that would cause a serious problem for us and our relationship.

As US President Joe Biden touched down in Ukraine to meet with his counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky on Monday, China’s top diplomat was traveling in the opposite direction, on his way to Russia.

The fact the two trips took place just a few days before the one year anniversary of the war illustrates the sharpening of fault lines between the world’s two superpowers.

Wang made a veiled dig at the US by stating that it was against reaping benefits of the crisis and that they did not add fuel to the fire.

Nuland said that it can’t just be a cynical ceasefire that allows the Russians time to rest and return. I think we would applaud and give a peace price if we knew that Putin and his army were out of Ukraine.

He urged European officials to think about “what framework should there be to bring lasting peace to Europe, what role should Europe play to manifest its strategic autonomy.”

Beijing’s foreign ministry warned against the 2024 Russian-Russia war and that the U.S. had no intention of attacking it, even as the Russian-American public perceived it

China has always taken a prudent and responsible approach to military exports and does not provide arms sales to conflict areas or peoples, the foreign ministry said in a daily briefing.

“Who is calling for dialogue and peace? Who is giving out knives for confrontation? The international community can see clearly,” the spokesperson said.

Beijing had been careful not to take actions that could cause a blow to the economy caused by three years of zero- Covid policy.

And while Beijing’s pro-Russian rhetoric appears to have softened in recent months, its support for Moscow – when measured by its annual trade, diplomatic engagements and schedule of joint military exercises – has bolstered over the past year.

There are always opportunities for a crisis to turn into a nightmare and Wang told Putin that.

In the middle of an air raid in Kyiv and a speech in Warsaw, Biden went there and denounced Putin, who he claimed was responsible for the deaths of civilians in eastern Ukraine.

The Russian translation of Mr Wang’s remarks says he told Mr. Putin that relations have never been directed against third countries. Our relations with the international community have not been negatively affected.

And this new and complicated foreign policy picture is not just a problem for American diplomats. There are rising challenges abroad as well as the depletion of US and Western weapons stock as arms to Ukraine, posing questions about military capacity and whether current defense spending is sufficient. Key Republicans meanwhile are accusing Biden of snubbing voters facing economic and other problems, even as he tries to position Democrats as the protectors of working Americans as the 2024 campaign dawns.

Biden promised that President Putin would fail in his desire for land and power and the Ukrainian people would love their country.

That may be the case. Putin said there was no chance of the war ending soon. He told them that if Russia does not prevail the conflict will lead to at least several months of bloodshed and even a face-saving exit from the country.

Putin is living in an alternate reality that Western ears find strange. Biden said he spoke to the people of Russia again. The United States and Europe have no desire to control or destroy Russia. Putin said today that the West was not planning to attack Russia.

The Russian leader will likely be watching rising opposition to Biden’s involvement in the war among conservatives in the US. On Monday, for instance, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis hinted – on the very day that Biden was standing with Ukrainians in Kyiv – that the future of Ukraine would not be priority should he win the White House.

On Fox, it was said that the fear of Russia going into NATO countries had not come close to happening. They have shown that they are a third-rate military power.

Biden’s Breakup of the Cold War War Throat and the Status of the Cooperation Between the United States and its European Allies

The estrangement between the United States and Russia is almost complete according to the results of Biden’s trip.

Putin, for example, announced Tuesday that Russia would suspend participation in the New START nuclear treaty with the United States. Since Moscow has stopped implementing the deal, it wasn’t clear what impact this would have.

Given that its economy is struggling, and its conventional forces are under extreme pressure, Russia also lacks resources to ignite a new nuclear arms race with Washington. But the collapse of one of the last building blocks of a post-Cold War thaw between Russia and the US exemplifies the almost total lack of communication between the rivals.

The Biden administration accused Russia of committing crimes against humanity last week, which will make it hard for the two countries to resume normal relations even after the Ukraine war ends.

One reason why the US was willing to discuss the nuclear situation with Russia regardless of the other situation was because it’s dangerous if the top two nuclear powers are not talking.

Linda Thomas-Greenfield, the US Ambassador to the United Nations, warned on CNN Sunday that such a step would cross a US red line, but she did not say what consequences would be.

A long-dragging conflict could also drive divides between the US and Europe – further playing into China’s foreign policy goals. It could bring about political dissent in Washington, which could weaken Biden’s ability to fulfill his foreign policy goals.

Mr. Putin said the trade volume of China and Russia could reach $200 billion this year, up from last year’s $188 billion.

“Everything is moving forward, developing, we are reaching new frontiers,” Mr. Putin said. We are talking about economic issues.

But even in that meeting, Mr. Wang’s published comments did not use the words war or invasion to describe the fighting in Ukraine. And while in Moscow, Mr. Wang may be even more reluctant to expose any deep differences between China and Russia.

A top US State Department official said Thursday that the Biden administration will be putting constraints on Chinese companies in relation to the war in Ukraine.

Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs Victoria Nuland said that the United States “will be putting other constraints on entities, Chinese-based or Chinese-subs of entities in Europe, which we think are active in evading sanctions,” along with sanctions package that will be announced on Friday – the anniversary of the invasion.

The forthcoming sanctions will also “clamp down on more Russian banks that have been evading sanctions” as well as “the middlemen who are flipping back money to the Russian government” through oil trade.

“What the Chinese are saying about the Ukraine crisis and how the EU wants to help” Secretary of State Ned Price, the European Union, and the United States

Nuland did not say how the Chinese will present the plan. A presentation will be made by China at the UN Security Council tomorrow. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken will be at the meeting.

China is trying to have it both ways. China is trying to broadcast and disguise itself in this veneer of neutrality, even as it deepens its engagement with Russia in key ways – politically, diplomatically, economically, and potentially in the security realm as well,” State Department spokesperson Ned Price said Wednesday.

In Beijing, the ambassador of the European Union to China, Jorge Toledo, told reporters at a briefing that China’s position paper was not a peace proposal, adding that the EU is “studying the paper closely,” according to Reuters.

“Conflict and war benefit no one. All parties must stay rational and exercise restraint, avoid fanning the flames and aggravating tensions, and prevent the crisis from deteriorating further or even spiraling out of control,” the paper said.

The US and other Western countries imposed economic sanctions on Russia. “Unilateral sanctions and maximum pressure cannot solve the issue; they only create new problems,” it said. “Relevant countries should stop abusing unilateral sanctions and ‘long-arm jurisdiction’ against other countries, so as to do their share in deescalating the Ukraine crisis.”

Much of the language used in the document appears targeted at the West. The paper said that there should be no Cold War mentality in the United States.

The security of a region shouldn’t be achieved by increasing the number of military blocs. The legitimate security interests and concerns of all countries must be taken seriously and addressed properly, it said, apparently in line with Moscow’s view that the West provoked the war through the NATO expansion.

The paper was blasted by American officials, who stated that the war could end tomorrow if Russia stopped attacking Ukraine and withdrew its forces.

“China should do everything in its power to stop the war and restore peace in Ukraine and urge Russia to withdraw its troops,” Ukraine’s Chargé d’Affaires to China Zhanna Leshchynska said at the same briefing in Beijing.

China’s stance on the Ukraine crisis and the role of diplomatic negotiation in ensuring the non-collapse of the Russian splintering coalition

“This requires us to identify changes more voluntarily and respond to the changes more actively to further strengthen our comprehensive strategic partnership,” Wang said.

“Dialogue and negotiation are the only viable solution to the Ukraine crisis,” the 12-point position paper stated. “All efforts conducive to the peaceful settlement of the crisis must be encouraged and supported.”

Beijing sent its top diplomat, Wang Yi, to Moscow where he met with Russian President Putin and other Russian officials, and he said that diplomatic negotiation was the only way out of the crisis.

There is not much leverage involved. The document lays out principles, but there’s no real reason why you would want to stop using it. There is no big appeal for you to get something. There’s no big cost if you don’t comply,” said Ian Chong, associate professor of political science at National University of Singapore.

The sources said that it did not appear that Beijing has made a final decision yet but negotiations were still ongoing about the price and scope.

It would mark a significant increase of China’s support for Russia with the possible provision of drones and other small arms for use in the military, according to sources.

It is possible that it would provide a significant boost to Russian capabilities. Russian fighters are running so low on ammunition that Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the Russian mercenary group Wagner, on Wednesday published photos of several dozen dead Wagner fighters and publicly blamed their deaths on the Russian Ministry of Defense’s inability to supply them with enough ammunition.

China’s response to US accusations that the United States is in favor of peace talks: a brief response to Mr. Zelensky

Wang Yi, China’s counterpart, responded earlier this week to the US’ allegations that China was in favor of peace talks.

But the lines between public and private entities in China are negligible, the sources said, and US intelligence suggests that Beijing has been using the companies for plausible deniability.

If the support of the Allies of Ukraine remained, Zelensky was confident that his country would be defeated by the Russians within a year.

Asked about reports that Beijing was considering providing Moscow with lethal weapons, Mr. Zelensky initially ignored the question. When it was raised a second time, he said that working to ensure China did not arm Russia was one of his top priorities.

Mr. Zelensky had the question translated a second time and then engaged the reporter directly, telling her that it was not about geography or geopolitics but basic principles.

Is China’s belief that innocents shouldn’t be killed questionable? That a nuclear power plant should not be occupied? Is that respect for a nation’s rights something that an invader should stop doing?

Russian Prime Minister Rectifies the Worst Moments from the War-that-are-seared-in-their-Minds

He said he was already starting public diplomatic relations and switched to English to emphasize his openness to talks with China. We have so many things in common that we need to speak about them with each other.

Again, Mr. Zelensky was careful not to alienate a potential ally. Israel’s targeting of Iranian drone and missile production facilities in Iran is probably more important than words of public support.

He said that he understood Israel’s long and complex history with Russia but wanted the country to take a strong stance against it during the war.

There were hard questions about possible internal disputes in his government. A journalist from Azeri wanted a picture taken with the Ukrainian leader for his son. Mr. Zelensky obliged.

When he first saw atrocities committed by Russian soldiers, the Ukrainian leader said was the worst moment of the war. “It was horrible,” he said.

Even though the answer to that question would only be determined on the battlefield, there were still questions over two and half hours.

Source: https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/02/24/world/russia-ukraine-zelensky-news/new-york-times-reporters-reflect-on-the-moments-from-the-war-that-are-seared-in-their-minds

Alexander Lukashenko meets with China for a “full-weather strategic partnership” to boost economic ties between Belarus and the West

Mr. Zelensky said that they wouldn’t make sense at the moment. Before any talks, he said, Russia would have to stop the destruction and killing, and respect the right of Ukrainians to live on Ukrainian land.

China’s Foreign Ministry said on Sunday that Alexander Lukashenko will hold talks in Beijing with Chinese officials on Tuesday and Thursday.

His trip comes after the two leaders agreed to upgrade their countries’ ties to an “all-weather comprehensive strategic partnership” during a September meeting on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in Uzbekistan, which Putin also attended.

In an interview with the Chinese state news agency, Xinhua, Lukashenko said the position paper was a testimony to China’s peaceful foreign policy and that a new step would have a far-reaching impact.

The backdrop of Belarus’ damaged ties with the West – and an interest in diversifying a Russia-dependent economy – could see Lukashenko keen to focus on boosting economic ties with China during this visit.

Belarus has been targeted by sweeping sanctions from the US and its allies in response to Moscow’s aggression after Lukashenko allowed Russian troops to invade Ukraine through the 1,000-kilometer (621-mile) Ukrainian-Belarusian border north of Kyiv.

Belarus was an early joiner of China’s Belt and Road development initiative, launched a decade ago, and trade between the two last year increased 33% year-on-year to surpass $5 billion, according to Xinhua.

In a call between Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang and his Belarussian counterpart Sergei Aleinik on Friday, Qin pledged that China would “support Belarus in its efforts to safeguard national stability and development,” and “oppose external interference in Belarus’s internal affairs and illegal unilateral sanctions against the country,” according to a Chinese Foreign Ministry readout.