Towards a More Extreme Scenario for a Raling Antiproton and a Missile Exchange between Iran and Israel

In recent days, American officials have been assessing how a missile exchange between Iran and Israel could unfold. The most optimistic prediction has been a repeat of what happened in April, when the United States, Israel, Jordan and others intercepted almost all of the hundreds of missiles and drones fired toward Israel.

Afterward, President Biden urged Prime Minister Netanyahu of Israel to “take the win,” and Israel’s response was muted: While it fired at an air base in Isfahan, a city surrounded by some of Iran’s significant nuclear facilities, it avoided hitting the facilities themselves. Next time, they could try to get assets from Iran.

American officials tell us that this time, more extreme scenarios are being considered, especially with regards to the nuclear facilities and enrichment sites at Natanz. American officials said that Iran may be able to produce a bomb-grade nuclear material in days or weeks at Natanz. It would take far longer to produce a nuclear weapon.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said late Tuesday that the missile attack was in response to several recent killings, including the assassination of Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah late Friday in Beirut; the death of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, who was killed in Tehran in July in a strike widely assumed to be carried out by Israel; and an Iranian commander.

The attack caused minor damage at one military base and shrapnel seriously injured a 7-year-old girl from an Arab Bedouin community in southern Israel.

Iran‘s response to the Israeli attack on Tuesday, April 26: The U.S. counterattack is likely to be much stronger than in April

Grant Rumley, a former Pentagon official and senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said Iran would likely replicate the April attack with a combination of drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles. “This time, it’s clear Iran wanted to avoid the failures of April by primarily using ballistic missiles, he said, “which travel much faster and can quickly overwhelm an air defense system.”

Unlike the April attack where Israel had days of warning to coordinate defenses with their allies in the region, Tuesday’s attack came with only hours of advance notice.

“Israel has much more free rein in the Iranian context than in April, as there’s essentially no more threat that Hezbollah would join,” Mr. Citrinowicz said.

In April, Israel was worried that issuing too intense of a response would prompt Iran to order its proxy militias — particularly Hezbollah in Lebanon — to retaliate extensively.

But after launching a bombing campaign that killed Hezbollah’s leader and other commanders last week, along with a ground invasion overnight Tuesday, Israel has weakened Hezbollah, stripping Iran of much of its deterrence against a wider Israeli attack, said Danny Citrinowicz, a retired Israeli intelligence officer who specialized in Iran.

Israel may be urged by the Biden administration to stop responding. Mr. Citrinowicz said that the U.S. officials were likely to have less power than in April with the elections around the corner.

Israeli military spokesperson Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari called Iran’s attack “a severe and dangerous escalation,” and promised, “We will respond wherever, whenever and however we choose.” Danny Danon, Israel’s ambassador to the United Nations, said the response will be “decisive and painful” on Wednesday.

Even an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities — long a source of fear for Israel, which worries about Tehran gaining a nuclear weapon — “should be considered,” General Amidror added.

Naftali Bennett, a former Israeli prime minister, wrote on social media that Israel was facing “the biggest opportunity in the past 50 years” to change the face of the region.

Iran’s nuclear project, major energy facilities and terrorist regime need to be destroyed, according to Mr. Bennett. “The tentacles of that octopus are severely wounded — now’s the time to aim for the head,” he added.

The Israeli Defense Mission in the Diaspora: A Cold War in the War Between the Hamas and the Hezbollah Regimes

According to Palestinian civil defense, a man was killed after a missile fell on the city of Jordan in the West Bank.

The Israeli military announced a soldier killed in combat in Lebanon, according to The Associated Press, which said Hezbollah claimed to have killed and wounded an unspecified number of Israeli troops.

There were sirens going off in Israel on Wednesday after the Israeli military said there were around 100 rockets fired from Lebanon. Near the border with Lebanon, the military issues alert to communities around the port city of Haifa.

AvicHay Adraee, spokesman for the Israeli military, advised residents of 24 additional villages to leave southern Lebanon. He said that civilians risked their lives if they were near Hezbollah fighters, facilities or weapons.

Israel says it is sending more troops into southern Lebanon to fight Hezbollah, as Israel also promised a “painful” response after Iran fired nearly 200 missiles at Israel Tuesday night.

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“The strategic advantage at this point is that it maintains the loyalty of these groups across the region, and therefore maintains its influence,” said Maha Yahya, director of the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut, Lebanon’s capital.

Citing what it said were promises of renewed diplomacy from the West, Iran had largely kept quiet in the wake of the assassination of Hamas’ political leader in Tehran and the killing of the Hezbollah head in Israel.