Russian War Crimes and the Kremlin: The “Mirror” of Putin’s Special Operation in Ukraine and the Implications for Russia’s Security and Security
This is the logic that Putin is following, as he rubber-stamps sham referendums in Ukranian regions and proclaims them part of Russia.
Ahead of the one-year anniversary of the Kremlin’s invasion of its neighbor, Putin delivered his remarks. The assembled audience included uniformed soldiers the Kremlin said had come directly from the frontlines of Moscow’s “special military operation” in Ukraine.
He said that despite Russia’s threats about nuclear weapons, there has been no detected change in Russia’s nuclear posture, but Putin’s rhetoric “is by itself reckless and dangerous.”
Andrey Kortunov, who runs the Kremlin-backed Russian International Affairs Council in Moscow, sees it, too. He told CNN that President Putin wanted to end the whole thing quickly.
Putin is facing dangers at home following his recent drive for 300,000 troops, which won’t reverse his battlefield losses any time soon.
The total exodus was put higher by independent Russian media. They say that the number of military age men leaving the country after being drafted has more than doubled to between 160,000 and 190,000.
CNN is unable to verify the Russian figures, but the 40 kilometers (around 25 miles) traffic tailbacks at the border with Georgia, and the long lines at crossings into Kazakhstan and Finland, speak to the backlash and the strengthening perception that Putin is losing his fabled touch at reading Russia’s mood.
Kortunov understands the public mood over the large costs and loss of life in the war and he doesn’t know what goes on in the Kremlin. People would start asking questions about why we got into this mess. Why, you know, we lost so many people.”
Putin’s logical option, Kortunov says, is to declare victory and get out on his own terms. But for this he needs a significant achievement on the ground. “Russia cannot simply get to where it was, on the 24 February of this year, say, okay, you know, that’s fine. Our mission is accomplished. The public should be presented with something that can be considered a victory.
He used the same playbook annexing Crimea from Ukraine in 2014 and now, like then, threatens potential nuclear strikes should Ukraine, backed by its Western allies, try to take the annexed territories back.
The person who was Petraeus. There is a chance that Putin could order tactical nuclear weapons to be used in Ukraine. Such weapons would make Russia worse off, rather than better, and that would be a bad decision on his part.
Explosive seismology and nuclear astrophysics: Putin in Kyiv and the geopolitical status of the region
Both Danish and Swedish seismologists recorded explosive shockwaves from close to the seabed: the first, at around 2 a.m. local time, hitting 2.3 magnitude, then again, at around 7 p.m., registering 2.1.
Within hours, roiling patches of sea were discovered, the Danes and the Germans sent warships to secure the area, and Norway increased security around its oil and gas facilities.
At least four leaks in Russia’sNord Stream pipe were discovered, each at the surface resembling a boiling cauldron, the largest one kilometer across, and together they released toxic greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.
Russian naval vessels were seen by European security officials in the area in the days prior, Western intelligence sources have said. NATO’s North Atlantic Council has described the damage as a “deliberate, reckless and irresponsible act of sabotage.”
Nord Stream 2 was never operational, and Nord Stream 1 had been throttled back by Putin as Europe raced to replenish gas reserves ahead of winter, while dialling back demands for Russian supplies and searching for replacement providers.
“I think this is a pretty grim picture, in part because Putin didn’t feel deterred in the first place,” Hill said. “The other thing is that Putin also feels that he has a lot of support from the rest of the world, including from China … it may very well take countries like China, pushing Russia, for there to be any break in Putin’s resolve.”
Having failed in the face of Western military unity backing Ukraine, Putin appears set to test Western resolve diplomatically, by trying to divide Western allies over terms for peace.
Putin is expected to make a pitch to Germany and France to use whatever means necessary to end this war and put pressure on the Ukrainians.
In response to an increasing influx of advanced Western weapons, economic, political and humanitarian aid to Kyiv, Putin has occasionally said that he might use nuclear weapons. When a member of the Human Rights Council asked him Wednesday to pledge that Russia would not be the first to use such weapons, Putin demurred. He said Russia would not be able to use nuclear weapons at all if it agreed not to use them first and then came under a nuclear strike.
At his meeting, Putin discussed the mobilization of 300,000 reservists that he ordered in September to bolster forces in Ukraine. He said only about 150,000 have been deployed so far to combat zones and the rest are still undergoing training. Putin said there wasn’t need for the Defense Ministry or the country to do that.
Sept. 28: Moscow-backed officials in parts of Ukraine made an appeal for the regions to join the Russian Federation. Putin’s approval rating fell 6 points to 77% in a poll by the Levada Center. The US Defense Department announced over a billion dollars of additional security aid to Ukranian.
In support of Ukraine joining NATO, the leaders of 9 European countries made a joint statement. And Pope Francis made a strong plea for Putin to end the war.
You can read past recaps here. For context and more in-depth stories, you can find more of NPR’s coverage here. Also, listen and subscribe to the NPR State ofUkraine newsletter for news throughout the day.
CNN’s Spectacular Tuesday Attacks on Ukraine’s National University and Presidential Office Building: After the Prime Minister, President Denys Shmyhal, and Prime Minister Alexander Zaporizya
The author knows Michael Bociurkiw, who is a global affairs analyst. He is a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and a former spokesperson for the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. He is a regular contributor to CNN Opinion. The opinions expressed in this commentary are his own. CNN has more opinion.
The attacks on Monday didn’t come as much of a surprise, especially after Russian President Putin accused the Ukrainians of launching an attack on the bridge.
But with the ability to target major Ukrainian cities, including the capital, Russia has shown that it can still cause immense damage and dislocation. Monday’s strikes heightens Russia-Ukraine conflict to one of its most dangerous phases since 2014. Putin has suggested that tactical nuclear weapons are still on the table.
A few hits were placed around the Taras Shevchenko National University and close to the Presidential Office Building. Ukrainian officials said that five people were killed in strikes on the capital.
As of midday local time, the area around my office in Odesa remained eerily quiet in between air raid sirens, with reports that three missiles and five kamikaze drones were shot down. (Normally at this time of the day, nearby restaurants would be heaving with customers, and chatter of plans for upcoming weddings and parties).
In a few hours after Monday’s attacks, Zaporizya was hit by multiple strikes on apartment buildings, mostly while people slept. Several dozens are injured and at least 17 people are dead.
In a video filmed outside his office Monday, a defiant President Volodymyr Zelensky said it appeared many of the 100 or so missile strikes across Ukraine were aimed at the country’s energy infrastructure. Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said at least 11 important infrastructure facilities in eight regions and the capital have been damaged.
There were scenes of the early days of the war when Russian forces were near the capital and some media outlets moved their operations to underground bomb shelters. In one metro station serving as a shelter, large numbers of people took cover on platforms as a small group sang patriotic Ukrainian songs.
In order to make sure that as many people as possible are out of harm’s way, businesses were asked to shift work online and millions were going to be in bomb shelters.
With so many asylum seekers returning home, the attacks may cause more harm to business confidence.
The symbolism of the only bridge connecting mainland Russia and the peninsula is a point of pride for Putin. His 70th birthday, which was a day after the attack, can be taken as an added blow to an aging autocrat’s ability to survive shame and humiliation.
dictators like to hardwire newly claimed territory with expensive, record-breaking infrastructure projects. In 2018, Putin personally opened the Kerch bridge – Europe’s longest – by driving a truck across it. The world’s longest sea crossing bridge was built by Beijing after the former Portuguese and British territories were reclaimed by the Chinese. The road bridge has been delayed for about two years.
Ukrainians must win the war. The crisis will be worsened with a weaker reaction than a strong attack from the Kremlin
The reaction among Ukrainians to the explosion was instantaneous: humorous memes lit up social media channels like a Christmas tree. Many people shared their jubilation through text messages.
Putin couldn’t sit still because he was consumed by pride and self-interest. He did not know how to respond by unleashing more death and destruction but he did know how to do it with the force that came from a former KGB operatives.
Putin has been placed on thin ice because of increasing criticism at home, something that was also an act of selfish desperation.
It’s been said that Russia must not win the war. It is time to edit the phrase. Ukraine must win the war,” said Yermack. He spoke from his home in Kyiv on a day when Russian airstrikes bombarded the city. Their goal is to cause a humanitarian catastrophe in Ukrainian towns and cities. “They want to make living conditions too harsh to survive this winter. They want to cause another wave of emigration.
It’s important for Washington and other countries to use urgent phone diplomacy to convince China and India that they shouldn’t use more deadly weapons.
A humanitarian crisis that will reverberate throughout Europe will be worsened by anything short of these measures. A weak reaction will be taken as a sign in the Kremlin that it can continue to weaponize energy, migration and food.
The Ukrainian War is Coming: The Phenomenology of the War and Putin’s Ruling with Putin on the Russia-Gaussian Scale
Furthermore, high tech defense systems are needed to protect Kyiv and crucial energy infrastructure around the country. With winter just around the corner, the need to protect heating systems is urgent.
The time has also come for the West to further isolate Russia with trade and travel restrictions – but for that to have sufficient impact, Turkey and Gulf states, which receive many Russian tourists, need to be pressured to come on board.
Not for the first time, the war is teetering towards an unpredictable new phase. Keir Giles is a senior consulting fellow at Chatham House and he said that this war is the 3rd, 4th and possibly fifth war they have been watching.
The pace of the war will likely be slowed by the winter, but it will not stop the fighting. The Ukrainians will do well on the battlefield due to the harsh weather. “The Ukrainians can knock on the door and be taken in and get warmed up and get a bowl of soup from their fellow citizens. He said they’re welcome as liberators, but the Russians are trying to kill them.
The stakes of the war have been heightened as winter approaches. Giles said that the Russians would like to keep it up. The successes of the Ukrainians have sent a message to the Kremlin. “They are able to do things that take us by surprise, so let’s get used to it,” Giles said.
Monday’s attacks, and further strikes throughout the week, were evidence of Russian President Vladimir Putin lashing out after a series of setbacks in the war that have put him under pressure domestically.
Russia’s counter-offensive in the Kherson province: Where is Russia? How Ukraine is going to respond to Russian attacks in the coming months
Ukrainian troops hoist the country’s flag above a building in Vysokopillya, in the southern Kherson region, last month. The officials say they’ve liberated hundreds of settlements.
Russia said Thursday its forces would help evacuate residents of occupied Kherson to other areas, as Ukraine’s offensive continued to make gains in the region. The announcement came shortly after the head of the Moscow-backed administration in Kherson appealed to the Kremlin for help moving residents out of harm’s way, in the latest indication that Russian forces were struggling in the face of Ukrainian advances.
These counter-offensives have shifted the momentum of the war and disproved a suggestion, built up in the West and in Russia during the summer, that while Ukraine could stoutly defend territory, it lacked the ability to seize ground.
Russia is going to wait it out if it isn’t resolved by then, said Dougherty. Now, after being pushed back in Ukraine’s Fall offensive, “they have a smaller front” to defend.
If the Russians could get to Christmas with the frontline looking like it is, it would be a huge success.
Beyond that, it appears that Russia is massing replacement soldiers and additional units to launch an offensive to take the portions of Donetsk and Luhansk provinces in the southeast, that they do not control – while also establishing defensive positions in depth in other areas that they control in the south.
A major blow in the hands of the rebels would send an important signal and also cause the price of energy in Europe to go up.
Giles said that there is an incentive for Ukraine to get things done quickly. “The winter energy crisis in Europe, and energy infrastructure and power being destroyed in Ukraine itself, is always going to be a test of resilience for Ukraine and its Western backers.”
Ukraine’s national electricity company, Ukrenergo, says it has stabilized the power supply to Kyiv and central regions of Ukraine after much of the country’s electricity supply was disrupted by Russian missile attacks on Monday and Tuesday. But Ukrainian Prime Minister has warned that “there is a lot of work to do” to fix damaged equipment, and asked Ukrainians to reduce their energy usage during peak hours.
As Russia begins a new offensive in eastern Ukraine, the US and its allies are skeptical Moscow has amassed the manpower and resources to make significant gains, US, UK and Ukrainian officials tell CNN. “It’s likely more aspirational than realistic,” said a senior US military official.
“We know – and Russian commanders on the ground know – that their supplies and munitions are running out,” Jeremy Fleming, a UK’s spy chief, said in a rare speech on Tuesday.
The I SW said that Russia’s limited supply of precision weapons in this role might make it hard for Putin to disrupt ongoing Ukrainian counter-offensives.
Over the course of a year, the US and its allies have sent nearly $50 billion to the Ukrainian military. To keep that up, and to rebuild its own reserves, the Pentagon is racing to re-arm, with the biggest increase in production of ammunition in decades and putting some of the defense industry on a war footing despite America technically not being at war.
The Russians don’t have the stocks of precision munitions to sustain high-tempo missile assault into the future, so the barrage of missile strikes will be an occasional feature for shows of extreme outrage.
The assistance for Putin may be on the way. An announcement by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko that Belarus and Russia will “deploy a joint regional group of troops” raised fears of deepened military cooperation between the close allies and that Belarusian troops could formally join Russia in its invasion. Belarus has been complaining of alleged Ukrainian threats to its security in recent days, which observers say could be a prelude to some level of involvement.
“The reopening of a northern front would be another new challenge for Ukraine,” Giles said. It would provide Russia a new route into the Kharkiv oblast (region), which has been recaptured by Ukraine, should Putin prioritize an effort to reclaim that territory, he said.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has been campaigning for long range missile systems from NATO and the US. In a conversation with US President Joe Biden last Sunday, Zelensky thanked the US for its continued support and asked for more air defense help. He told Biden that “Russian missile terror” has destroyed about half of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said Tuesday that Ukraine needed “more” systems to better halt missile attacks, ahead of a meeting of NATO defense ministers in Brussels.
The system is widely considered one of the most capable long-range weapons to defend airspace against incoming ballistic and cruise missiles as well as some aircraft. Because of its high altitude capability it can shoot down Russian missiles far away from its intended targets.
Ukraine “badly needed” modern systems such as the IRIS-T that arrived this week from Germany and the NASAMS expected from the United States , Bronk said.
What can European governments say about Russia and Ukraine if it is a war against the Ukrainian people or against the consequences of Ukraine’s actions?
Giles thinks that Russia can use the war as a way to get governments in Europe to remove their support for Ukraine.
That’s not to say mobilized forces will be of no use. If used in support roles, like drivers or refuelers, they might ease the burden on the remaining parts of Russia’s exhausted professional army. They could also fill out depleted units along the line of contact, cordon some areas and man checkpoints in the rear. They won’t become a capable fighting force. Already there are signs of discipline problems among mobilized soldiers in Russian garrisons.
Mr. Putin could use his strength against the people of Ukraine. The attacks of the past week — particularly striking critical civilian infrastructure — could be expanded across Ukraine if missile supplies hold out, while Russia could directly target the Ukrainian leadership with strikes or special operations.
“Even if President (Volodymyr) Zelenskyy reached some conclusion that maybe we should, to stop the punishment, we should negotiate. The conviction of the Ukrainian people is what makes me think that he can’t do that anymore.
The Security Conference of the Cipher Brief: What the Russians Really Want to Learn from the Last Days of the Crime and the War of Crime in Ukraine
Petraeus spoke at an annual conference in Sea Island, Ga., run by The Cipher Brief, which brings together members of the national security community — current and former — to stand back and look at the big picture on global security.
“From the beginning, the security conference has always been a place of understanding and dialogue. What is new is that this is now taking place at the same time as a war of aggression is being waged on European soil by Russia against Ukraine,” Pistorius said. “The stakes for the conference are even higher now, because of that.”
The chief of staff to President Zelenskyy spoke at the conference and said that the conflict has to end with a Ukrainian victory on the battlefield.
The leader of Russia doesn’t want a way out of the conflict according to a former CIA officer who runs the Intelligence Project at Harvard. He says it’s the opposite. “Putin’s muscle memory when he runs into an obstacle is to escalate,” said Kolbe. “There’s a lot of tricks he can still pull out to try to undermine morale in Ukraine and in the West.”
“That is essentially a metaphorical burning of bridges,” said Alperovitch. “What this means is that this war is likely to continue for many, many months, potentially many years, as long as he’s in power and as long as he has the resources to continue fighting.”
He proved to the Ukrainians and their soldiers that they are not alone as the Russian attack their power plants effectively weaponizes winter.
The End of the War: Paul Kolbe, the CIA’s Paul Petraeus, and the Formation of a World Without Warf
Nobody said the war was near an end at the Georgia conference. “If a war ends with stalemate or defeat, I don’t see any chances of a negotiation in the near term,” said Paul Kolbe, the former CIA official.
This war began with a Russian invasion in 2014, he noted, and is now as intense as it’s ever been. Greg Myre is an NPR reporter. Follow him @gregmyre1.
I believe we’ll see Ukrainian forces that are more able than the Russians to achieve the kind of combined arms effects that I describe, which could enable more effective offensive operations, and also will allow them to unhinge some of the Russian defenses. We may not see all of this until the spring or summer, given how long it takes for Ukrainian forces to receive the new western tanks and other systems.
Over the course of decades, Petraeus has been studying warfare. He was the US and coalition commander of the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq and later served as director of the CIA. He earned his Ph.D. from Princeton with a dissertation on the Vietnam War and the lessons the American military took from it. Petraeus is also the co-author, with British historian Andrew Roberts, of the forthcoming book, “Conflict: The Evolution of Warfare from 1945 to Ukraine.”
Russia is on the brink of rearming: How much ammunition can it make in a few weeks of war? An expert on the Russian military
Nine months in, Russian hopes of a swift seizure have been well and truly dashed, its army largely on the defensive across more than 600 miles of battle lines strung along the eastern and southern reaches of Ukraine.
Indeed a truce or negotiations may be the only path to victory possible at this moment for the Russian leader; his manpower exhausted and weapons supplies dwindling.
Michael Kofman, director of Russian studies at the CNA think tank and a leading expert on the Russian military, told me that a premature truce allows both parties to re-arm.
Experts say that Russia is starting to rearm. One of the most important aspects of this war wasmunition availability, says Kofman. “If you burn through 9 million rounds, you cannot make them in a month. He said the issue was what production rate could be mobilized.
Kofman cited available information showing that the manufacture of munitions – which have been the staples of the exchanges so far along Ukrainian front lines – has gone from two, and in some factories to three, shifts a day in Russia. This suggests that “they have the component parts or otherwise they wouldn’t be going to double and triple shifts,” he said.
Negotiating with the Ukrainians: What Do They Want to Say? Putin, Milley, Dougherty, Ryan, CNN, and the Petraeus
When there is an opportunity to negotiate, seize it. General Mark Milley, chairman of the US Joint Chief of Staff told them to seize the moment.
Petro Poroshenko told the Council on Foreign Relations that they should imagine how Ukrainians understand negotiations. Your wife has been killed and your daughter raped, but you don’t hear from them until the killer comes to your house and opens the door to the second floor. Let’s have a negotiation.’ What would be your reaction?
General Mick Ryan, a fellow of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told me that giving the Russians time to regroup and rearm would relieve the pressure on their forces. “They have been at it hard for nine months. Their forces are tired.
The images showed that “in total, at least 52 Russian ammunition depots have been hit by the Ukrainian military since the end of March 2022.” It is a good chunk of the Russian depots analysts think are on the Ukrainian side.
Old ammo. CNN’s Ellie Kaufman and Liebermann reported earlier this week on a US military official who says Russian forces have had to resort to 40-year-old artillery ammunition as their supplies of new ammo are “rapidly dwindling.”
And, he added, the Russians are “willing to trade mobilized soldiers and artillery shells.” The Russians are expecting that “over time, NATO and the Western allies and Ukrainians won’t be willing to continue to make those trades. And eventually it’ll push them to negotiate. That, I totally believe, is Putin’s bet,” said Dougherty.
Petraeus: There are some ironies of the situation with this question. Putin wants to make Russia great again. However, what he has done is make NATO great again – with two very capable, historically neutral powers (Finland and Sweden) seeking NATO membership; with substantially increased defense spending by NATO members, most notably Germany; with augmentation of NATO forces in the Baltic states and eastern Europe; and with the greatest unity among NATO members since the end of the Cold War.
But at some point, they’ll also get tired of this war, he added. And the Russian mindset may become “we may not have everything we wanted. We will annex a large portion of the Donbas into the Russian Federation so we can hold onto the peninsula. And I think that’s kind of their bet right now.”
At the same time, a truce would also allow the West to rebuild rapidly depleting arsenals that have been drained by materiel sent to Ukraine, even upgrade what’s been supplied.
There is a question as to whether the US and its allies will be ready to return to a conflict that many wish has already ended.
Vladimir Putin defended the invasion of Ukraine, insisting that its nuclear arsenals “are state-of-the-art” are deterrent
KYIV, Ukraine — Russian President Vladimir Putin acknowledged Wednesday that his “special military operation” in Ukraine is taking longer than expected but said it has succeeded in seizing new territory and added that his country’s nuclear weapons are deterring escalation of the conflict.
The war that began with Russia’s invasion of the country has killed tens of thousands and driven millions from their homes. He vowed to keep fighting for his interests and to protect himself using all means available. He said that he had no option but to send in troops because the West had only “spit in the face” Russia’s security demands.
Speaking at a meeting of his human rights council, Putin described the land gains as a significant result for Russia and stated that the Sea of Azov has become Russia’s internal sea. In one of his frequent historic references to a Russian leader he admires, he added that “Peter the Great fought to get access” to that body of water.
After failing to take the Ukrainian city of Kyiv, Russia seized swaths of southern Ukraine and captured the important Sea of Azov port of Mariupol in May. In September, Putin illegally annexed four Ukrainian regions, even though he did not fully control them. In 2014, he had illegally annexed Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula.
He said that the possibility of using it in case of a nuclear strike on our territory will be very limited if it doesn’t use it first.
Putin rejected Western criticism that his previous nuclear weapons comments amounted to saber-rattling, claiming they were “not a factor provoking an escalation of conflicts, but a factor of deterrence.”
“We haven’t gone mad. Putin said that they are fully aware of what nuclear weapons are. He added, without elaborating: “We have them, and they are more advanced and state-of-the-art than what any other nuclear power has.”
In his comments, the Russian leader didn’t talk about Russia’s battlefield setbacks or attempts to cement control over the seized regions but did address issues with supplies, treatment of wounded soldiers and limited desertions.
The governor of the region posted pictures of the new anti-tank barriers in the open fields. On Tuesday, the governor had said a fire broke out at an airport in the region after a drone strike. Belgorod workers were working on anti-tank barriers and officials were creating self-defense units. Belgorod has seen numerous fires and explosions, apparently from cross-border attacks, and its governor reported Wednesday that Russia’s air defenses have shot down incoming rockets.
In brazen drone attacks, two strategic Russian air bases more than 500 kilometers (300 miles) from the Ukraine border were struck Monday. Moscow blamed Ukraine, which didn’t claim responsibility.
Moscow responded with strikes by artillery, multiple rocket launchers, missiles, tanks and mortars at residential buildings and civilian infrastructure, worsening damage to the power grid. Private Ukrainian power utility Ukrenergo said temperatures in eastern areas where it was making repairs had dropped to as low as minus 17 degrees Celsius (near zero Fahrenheit).
There was a warning from the US embassy in Russia on Wednesday about “unpredicted consequences” after news that the US was about to send the system to Ukraine.
“Earlier, many experts, including those overseas, questioned the rationality of such a step which would lead to an escalation of the conflict and increase the risk of directly dragging the US army into combat,” Zakharova said at a briefing in Moscow.
The US officials had argued that the Patriot system was too complicated to give to Ukraine. Russia’s targeted campaign on civilian infrastructure jettisoned those arguments.
The Pentagon press secretary was asked about Russian warnings that the system would be provocative. Pat said the comments wouldn’t have an effect on aid to Ukraine.
“I find it quite ironic that officials of a country that brutally attacked its neighbor in an unprovoked invasion would use words like provocative to describe defensive systems that are supposed to save lives and protect civilians,” he said.
In what may be a no less subtle message than calling the Patriot deployments provocative, Russia’s defense ministry shared video of the installation of a “Yars” intercontinental ballistic missile into a silo launcher in the Kaluga region for what Alexei Sokolov, commander of the Kozelsky missile formation, called “combat duty as planned.”
Appearing this week on Russian state TV, Commander Alexander Khodakovsky of the Russian militia in the Donetsk region suggested Russia could not defeat the NATO alliance in a conventional war.
In the trenches: What do Ukranian troops need to do to defend themselves against Russian attacks in the next few months? CNN interview with Will Ripley
The crews needed to operate the missile batteries are much larger than the ones for smaller air defense systems. The training of the missile batteries usually takes months and the United States will now have to do it under constant attacks from Russia.
In an interview with The Economist published Thursday, Zelensky also rejected the idea recently suggested by US Secretary of State Antony Blinken that Ukraine seek to reclaim only land seized by Russia since February 2022 and not areas like Donbas and Crimea, which have been under Russian control since 2014.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg told the French news outlet France 24 this week, before the Patriot missile development, that the alliance still has two main objectives: provide aid to Ukraine and also make sure that NATO forces don’t become directly involved and escalate the war.
The official told reporters that if you load the bullets they cross your fingers that they will fire or explode.
Perhaps the biggest challenge facing the West in its support for Ukraine as the war enters its second year is sheer logistics, and maintaining the pace of weapons and ammunition supplies to Ukraine as stockpiles dwindle.
In the trenches. Will Ripley filed a report for CNN on trenches and fortifications being built on the border of Ukraine and Belarus, where there is growing concern about Russia assembling troops. Ripley talks to a sewing machine repairman turned tank driver.
“I also think no one is asking for a blank check,” Clinton added. “I believe that the Ukrainians have proven that they are a really good investment for the United States. They are not asking us to be there to fight their war. They’re fighting it themselves. They’re asking us and our allies for the means to not only defend themselves but to actually win.”
The speech made it seem like the Ukrainian people were connected to their own revolution and that it was important for us to think about the families in Ukranian that will be on the front lines during Christmas.
More will be deployed with trained soldiers soon, but he warned they aren’t able to deliver the modern versions of the fighting vehicles.
The War Between Ukraine, the US, and the Soviet Union: CNN’s Evening in America Reveals Vladimir Putin as the US Secretary of State
Clinton, who previously met Russian President Vladimir Putin as US secretary of state, said the leader was “probably impossible to actually predict,” as the war turns in Ukraine’s favor and his popularity fades at home.
The bodies of Russian conscripts will be thrown into the fighting in Ukraine according to Clinton.
This story was adapted from the December 22 edition of CNN’s Meanwhile in America, the daily email about US politics for global readers. Click here to read past editions and subscribe.
Unbroken, defiant, a civilian forced to don green military garb, the Ukrainian president spent Wednesday in Washington, DC, on his daring first trip out of his country since Russia’s brutal, unprovoked invasion in February. He expressed heartfelt gratitude for America’s multi-billion dollar weapons and ammunition lifeline – but made clear he’d never stop asking for more.
The uncertainties and risks of a war between the US and Russia can be obscured by Zelensky’s heroic bearing.
There is growing skepticism in congress about the cost of US involvement in wars, and at a time when millions of Ukrainians are being put at risk by the comic actor-turned-wartime hero.
At an emotional peak of his speech in the House chamber, Zelensky handed Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Vice President Kamala Harris a Ukrainian flag he retrieved from the hottest battle front at Bakhmut on Tuesday.
The flag was brought to the US Congress, to members of the House of Representatives, and to senators who could save millions of people.
Zelensky masters historical allusion and public relations theater. He compared the conflict in Yugoslavia to the battle in the colonies, where a ragtag army battled an out-gunned enemy. He evoked the heroism of US soldiers dug into freezing foxholes in the Battle of the Bulge during Christmas 1944, which thwarted the last effort by Nazi Germany to repel the allied liberation of Europe. He pointed out that during the war, President Franklin Roosevelt promised a victory for freedom.
His point was that the fight between Ukraine and the Soviet Union was much more than just an old grudge. It was that his fight is America’s and everyone’s – to hold back tyranny and save global democracy.
The welcoming of the Ukrainian leader to the room suggested that the House Republicans would be shamed if they abandoned him.
What do we really need to know about the US and Russia in the fight against Putin? A tribute to Zelensky during a visit to Washington in December 2016
— To Europeans, enduring their own grim winter of high electricity and heating prices after cutting off from Russian energy, and who may be minded to push for an end to the conflict on Putin’s terms, Zelensky showed that the West is united and that Biden means it when he said Wednesday the US is in “for as long as it takes.”
We’ll celebrate Christmas, or maybe it will be a night of darkness. He said that there will be no electricity, not because it’s more romantic, but because. Even if there is no electricity, the light of our faith in ourselves will not be put out.
Zelensky repeatedly pointed out that despite the largesse of US artillery support and the imminent arrival of high-tech weapons like a Patriot missile battery that Biden unveiled Wednesday, his nation was still outmanned and outgunned.
The president has tried to limit the effectiveness of the weapons he sends into the battle so as to avoid provoking a direct fight with Russia while still trying to protect the European democracy from the threat of being attacked by Putin.
In December of 2016 Vice President Biden pledged clearly defined consequences to Putin during a secure video teleconference, more than two months before the invasion.
Zelensky also had a message for some members of the incoming GOP House majority, who are skeptical of massive aid for Ukraine, and the possible new House speaker, Rep. Kevin McCarthy, who warned again after the speech on Wednesday that he did not support a blank check for Ukraine.
However, given partisan fury that will erupt in a divided Washington next year, there is no guarantee that America’s lawmakers will even be able to fund their own government – let alone one fighting for its survival thousands of miles away.
Several Republican members who have expressed reservations about aid to Ukraine – like Reps. Lauren Boebert of Colorado and Matt Gaetz of Florida – did not stand to applaud when Zelensky was introduced.
Zelensky remembered a visit to Washington that started 81 years ago Thursday, by another leader of a dark, bomb-ridden nation, desperate for US help to turn the tide against communism. Pelosi, likely presiding over her final great congressional occasion, recalled how her father was in the House, as a Maryland congressman, when British Prime Minister Winston Churchill addressed Congress on December 26, 1941. Zelensky borrowed one of the great statesman’s greatest lines, as he also presented himself as the symbol of a nation’s defiance.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Vladimir Kuleba and the UN Security Council Report on Ukraine’s Resolution of the Ukraine War Crimes Under the Zelenskyy Protocol
The foreign minister of Ukraine said that his government wants to hold a peace summit at the United Nations by the end of February, in order to get some kind of help from the Secretary-General.
Russia can’t be invited to such a summit if they face a war crimes tribunal first, according to the Foreign Minister.
Kuleba also said he was “absolutely satisfied” with the results of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s visit to the U.S. last week, and he revealed that the U.S. government had made a special plan to get the Patriot missile battery ready to be operational in the country in less than six months. Usually, the training takes up to a year.
Kuleba said in an interview that diplomacy is an important part of the fight for the war in 2023.
The summit could be held at the UN, because it’s not about making a favor to a certain country, he said. “This is really about bringing everyone on board.”
Zelenskyy presented a peace formula at the Group of 20 that included the restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity, the withdrawal of Russian troops, the release of prisoners, and a tribunal to prosecute those guilty of the aggression against the country.
About Guterres’ role, Kuleba said: “He has proven himself to be an efficient mediator and an efficient negotiator, and most importantly, as a man of principle and integrity. We would be happy with his participation.
Source: https://www.npr.org/2022/12/26/1145539638/ukraine-russia-peace-summit-foreign-minister
Russian Foreign Ministry on the U.S. Visit during Zelenskyy’s First Foreign Visit since February 24, 2005: “It’s Important for Russia to Stand Up for Ukraine”
“They regularly say that they are ready for negotiations, which is not true, because everything they do on the battlefield proves the opposite,” he said.
Zelenskyy’s visit to the U.S. was his first foreign trip since the war started on Feb. 24. Kuleba praised Washington’s efforts and emphasized the importance of the visit.
“This shows how both the United States are important for Ukraine, but also how Ukraine is important for the United States,” said Kuleba, who was part of the delegation to the U.S.
He said that the U.S. government developed a program for the missile battery to complete the training faster than usual “without any damage to the quality of the use of this weapon on the battlefield.”
While Kuleba didn’t mention a specific time frame, he said only that it will be “very much less than six months.” He stated that training will be done outside of Ukranian.
During Russia’s ground and air war in Ukraine, Kuleba has been second only to Zelenskyy in carrying Ukraine’s message and needs to an international audience, whether through Twitter posts or meetings with friendly foreign officials.
Russia’s status as a permanent member of the UN Security Council was called into question by Ukraine on Monday. Kuleba said they have long “prepared for this step to uncover the fraud and deprive Russia of its status.”
After the fall of the Soviet Union, Russian didn’t go through the legal procedure for obtaining membership in the United Nations Security Council, says the Foreign Ministry.
What America has done in Ukraine during the Cuban Missile Crisis: Implications for the United States and the War on the Security and Security of the Community
This is something America has done before. During the Cuban Missile Crisis, the most dangerous nuclear confrontation so far, the Soviet Union’s position shifted in a matter of days, ultimately accepting an outcome that favored the West. Had “red lines” thinking been in vogue, America might well have accepted an inferior compromise that weakened its security and credibility.
America should be focused on three things. First, it should no longer declare that there are measures it will refrain from taking, and weapons systems it will not provide, to support Ukraine. To signal unilateral restraint is to make an unforced concession. Worse, it emboldens Russia to probe for, and try to impose, further limits on U.S. action — making the war more, not less, risky.
“Russia is preparing for maximum escalation. It is gathering everything possible, doing drills and training. When it comes to an offensive from different directions, as of now, I can say that we are not excluding any scenario in the next two to three weeks.”
“These will be defining months in the war,” Oleksiy Danilov, Secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, told Sky News in an interview broadcast Tuesday.
“During the week, military representatives from the two countries will practice joint planning of the use of troops based on the prior experience of armed conflicts in recent years,” the ministry said in a statement.
“It’s unlikely Russian forces will be particularly better organized and so unlikely they’ll be particularly more successful, though they do seem willing to send more troops into the meat grinder,” a senior British official told CNN.
“They amassed enough manpower to take one or two small cities in Donbas, but that’s it,” a senior Ukrainian diplomat told CNN. “Underwhelming, compared to the sense of panic they were trying to build in Ukraine.”
US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said Tuesday in Brussels that the US is not seeing Russia “massing its aircraft” ahead of an aerial operation against Ukraine.
How did Russia lose the Cold War? Comments on Bergen’s View of the State of the Ukraine and How it Is Taking It All Seriously
Peter Bergen is a vice president at New America, a CNN national security analyst and a professor of practice at Arizona State University. You have a choice of opinion on CNN.
He says the Russians have lost a lot of battles because of their military culture, doctrine, organizational structures and training failures. The first open-source war is in many ways the result of a Cold War war, but other aspects of the battle are being waged with upgraded weaponry and drones.
Petraeus, who criticized the Biden administration’s withdrawal of Afghanistan, strikes a different tone on Ukraine. He says the President’s team has done a very impressive job of leading NATO and the West to counter the Russian invasion, though there have been times he would have liked to have seen decisions to provide certain weapons systems (such as western tanks and longer-range precision munitions) made sooner than they were.
Petraeus: It is not Russia. The Battles of Ukrainian cities like Kyiv,Sumy, Chernihiv, and Kharkiv were lost by Russia, and they didn’t take the rest of the southern coast.
The battle lines west of Dnipro have been fairly static after the withdrawal, although Russian forces have madeIncremental and very costly gains in villages in southeastern Ukraine. Additional forces are being deployed to defend the areas under pressure.
So, the situation is essentially a stalemate at present, albeit with Russia making costly attacks in several areas, and with both sides building up forces for offensive operations expected in the late winter (likely the Russians) and spring/summer (the Ukrainians).
There are some hints of the future of warfare that we are seeing. We see the Ukrainian use of drones (of only modest range and capability) as aerial observers identifying Russian headquarters and other targets for the precision munitions the US has provided (which will double in range from 70-80 kilometers to 150 kilometers when the just announced US precision munitions arrive in Ukraine).
In a context that includes the widespread presence of smart phones, internet access, and social media, we see a war for the first time.
Source: https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/14/opinions/petraeus-how-ukraine-war-ends-bergen-ctpr/index.html
What do NATO have to do to deter future conflict? An opinion piece from Vladimir Putin during the first two months of NATO missionary operations in Ukraine
There would be more capable outlying systems in every domain, not just in the air but also in sea, sub-sea, on the ground and in cyberspace.
I recall an adage back in the Cold War days that stated, “If it can be seen, it can be hit; if it can be hit, it can be killed.” In truth, we didn’t have the surveillance assets, precision munitions and other capabilities needed to truly “operationalize” that adage in those days. Unless there are substantial defenses and hardening of those assets, all platforms, bases, and headquarters will be vulnerable in the future to be hit and destroyed.
Imagining all this underscores, of course, that we must take innumerable actions to transform our forces and systems. We must deter future conflict by ensuring that there are no questions about our capabilities or our willingness to employ them – and also by doing everything possible to ensure that competition among great powers does not turn into conflict among them.
Thanks to Putin, the description of NATO as suffering from “brain death” by French President Macron in late 2019 has turned out to be more than a bit premature.
Petraeus: All of the above and more. The list is long, including poor campaign design; wholly inadequate training (what were they doing for all those months they were deployed on the northern, eastern, and southern borders of Ukraine?); poor command, control, and communications; inadequate discipline (and a culture that condones war crimes and abuse of local populations); poor equipment (exemplified by turrets blowing off of tanks when fires ignite in them); insufficient logistic capabilities; inability to achieve combined arms effects (to employ all ground and air capabilities effectively together); inadequate organizational architecture; lack of a professional noncommissioned officer corps; a top-down command system that does not promote initiative at lower levels and pervasive corruption that undermines every aspect of their military – and the supporting military-industrial complex.
Petraeus: Not at all. Russia has enormous military capacity and still a nuclear superpower, as well as being blessed with mineral and agricultural wealth. It has a population of more than 150 million, which is double that of the next largest European country, Germany.
Source: https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/14/opinions/petraeus-how-ukraine-war-ends-bergen-ctpr/index.html
The Unstable Nation in the War-Time: How Ukrainians and Russians Have Adapted their Military Systems and Their Missions to the West
And it is still led by a kleptocratic dictator who embraces innumerable grievances and extreme revanchist views that severely undermine his decision-making.
You know the observation made by Stalin: “Quantity has a quality all its own.” Russia has a bigger population than the Ukranian one. Will this affect the war in the long term?
In addition, as many as 300,000 new recruits are being sent to the frontlines, and up to 100,000 more are on the way. That is not trivial because quantity matters.
In the same way,Ukrainians know what they are fighting for, but it is not clear that many of the Russian soldiers are also from sectarian and ethnic minorities.
All of those technologies have proven very important, and the Ukrainians have shown enormous skill in adapting many technologies and commercial applications for military use.
In fact, the Ukrainians have also shown exceptional abilities to “McGyver” solutions for a variety of problems – whether adapting Western missiles for use on MiG-29 fighter aircraft, repairing battle-damaged armored vehicles left on the battlefield by the Russians (remember the Ukrainians’ “tractor army”), or jamming Russian communications.
I think that sometimes we should have decided to provide more capabilities such as HIMARS, long-range precision weapons, tanks, etc. sooner than we have.
Eventually, for example, Ukraine is going to have to transition from eastern bloc aircraft (e.g., MiG-29s) to western ones (e.g., F-16s). There just aren’t any more MiGs to provide to them, and they reportedly have more pilots than aircraft at this point.
So, we might as well begin the process of transition, noting that it will take a number of months, regardless, to train pilots and maintenance personnel. All that said, again, I think the Administration has done a very impressive job and proven to be the indispensable nation in this particular situation – with important ramifications for other situations around the world.
Source: https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/14/opinions/petraeus-how-ukraine-war-ends-bergen-ctpr/index.html
The Quasi-Private Wagner Group: What Do We Think About Its Threats? How Does the Ukraine War Ends in Taiwan?
The force that Putin puts into the meat grinder of the toughest battles is called the quasi-private Wagner Group. I would like to know if you have any thoughts on using mercenaries as a tactic.
Russia’s use of mercenaries is innovative but also inhumane as it entails throwing soldiers into battle as cannon fodder, and with little to worry about for their survival.
These are tactics and practices that don’t foster the development of well-trained, disciplined, capable units that can trust their leaders and soldiers on their left and right.
Bergen: What are the lessons of Ukraine for the Chinese if they were to stage an invasion of Taiwan, which would not be over a neighboring land border but over a 100-mile body of water? The Chinese might think about this question differently due to the sinking of the Moskva.
And especially if the target of such an operation has a population willing to fight fiercely for its survival and be supported by major powers – not just militarily but with substantial economic, financial, and personal sanctions and export controls.
Petraeus is an American military officer. Yes, I believe it is. This is the first war in which smartphones and social media have been so widely available and also so widely employed. The result is unprecedented transparency and an extraordinary amount of information available – all through so-called “open sources.”
Source: https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/14/opinions/petraeus-how-ukraine-war-ends-bergen-ctpr/index.html
Combined arms effect in the Cold War: Where do we stand? What do we need to know before we decide what to do next?
That said, there does not seem to be a particularly innovative new plan, given the limitations of the professional capabilities of the Russian forces and their demonstrated inability to generate “combined arms effect” – to integrate the actions of tanks with infantry, artillery/mortars, engineers, explosive ordnance disposal, electronic warfare, fixed and rotary wing close air support, air defenses, effective command and control, drones, etc.
You asked at the beginning of the Iraq War how this would end. For the war in Ukraine: How does this end?
When Ukraine’s ability to resist missile and drone strikes declines, a Marshall-like plan is designed by the US and G7 that would help rebuild the country and give NATO an ironclad security guarantee.
US and Western leaders are planning a show of strength and unity ahead of the Russian invasion anniversary next week, in order to establish once and for all, that NATO is in the conflict for the long haul and until Moscow’s defeat.
The Western rhetorical and diplomatic offensive will ratchet up further as Vice President Kamala Harris heads to the Munich Security Conference this week. President Joe Biden is going to visit Poland next week in order to bolster his legacy as the most effective leader of the Western alliance since the end of the Cold War.
The New US Senate Speaker: The Case for a Strong Future of the United World — a View from the House of Representatives to the White House
In the US House for instance, some members of the new Republican majority are skittish. Matt Gaetz, a Republican from Florida, demanded an immediate peace agreement between the US and Russia and an end to aid to Ukraine. The Senate and House both have bipartisan support for saving Ukraine. It is not certain if Biden can guarantee massive aid packages in the long run. If one of the two Republican candidates wins in 2024, US aid might be in serious doubt.
The outside world knows Putin is not contemplating defeat or an exit from the war because of the complete lack of any diplomatic framework for ceasefire talks.
Hill, who worked in the White House, told the committee there were no signs that Putin was dropping his determination.
Even though the US and China were at odds over a Chinese spy balloon crossing the US this month, there was no chance of China leaning on Putin to end the war.
And even if Beijing might be embarrassed at Putin’s performance in Ukraine after the two sides declared a “no limits” partnership last year, it may see an advantage in seeing the US preoccupied with a proxy war against Russia as it escalates its challenge to American power in Asia.
Sherman, the US ambassador to Russia, said at an event that he was concerned about the ties between China and Russia becoming more entwined, though he admitted that the United States was worried about the situation in Iraq.
The Chancellor said Friday that it’s wise to be ready for a long war in Ukraine, and that the allies will stay together for the duration.
The Chancellor said that the most important decision should be that we are willing to do it as long as is necessary and that we will do our best.
I’m pretty sure that Putin did not expect that there would be a united world. He never thought that the partnership would work well.
In regards to his government’s strong alliance with the US, he said that they just do it together with their friends and partners.
American Defense Minister Pamela Scholz: Taking the lead in the fight against Russia, and how the US can try to push it out
“I learned many are not able to deliver the most modern things … but in the ones they are delivering we will give the support as well,” Scholz said. “And as you know, there is also a big number of older tanks which we will deliver.”
Confronted on concerns over dwindling ammunition stockpiles, Scholz stressed the need for a “permanent production of the most important weapons,” including ammunition.
The German Defense Minister claimed the conference is more important than ever, given the Russian invasion.
Two leading House Republicans have called for increased military support for the country of Ukranian in its fight against Russia, while maintaining support on both sides of the aisle for the funding of the war effort.
In an interview with CNN’s Pamela Brown on “State of the Union” Sunday, McCaul said that the bipartisan support for Ukraine was still very strong.
McCaul warns that support for Ukraine could prolong the conflict and allow Russia to increase its advantages in the conflict and cause more anti-Ukraine dissent.
“The longer (Biden administration officials) drag this out, they play into (Russian leader Vladimir) Putin has his hands. The Texas Republican told CNN that the man wanted this to be a long, drawn out war because he knows it will cost him the American people and Congress their support.
McCaul was asked by Brown if he believes the US is considering sending F-16 fighter jets toUkraine and replied “I hope so.” McCaul also expressed his concern about a drawn out conflict between Russia and Ukraine while noting that the momentum is building for this to happen.
Turner pointed out that the resolution was a direct response to a letter House Democrats sent to the White House last fall asking it to pursue diplomacy with Russia and Ukraine. The letter was not written in a proper manner.
There are a few on both sides, Pamela, who have been cautious or who want to end the support, he said from Munich. There are more than 400 members of Congress. There are probably at least 400 people who are going the direction of this path.
The United States of America, China, and the Cold War: Why we have a Cold War in the World, but what we can do about it
“This balloon, by the way, had a lot of American parts in it. We know that the hypersonic missile that went around the world with precision was built on the backbone of American technology,” McCaul said, referring to Beijing’s test of a nuclear-capable hypersonic missile in 2021.
A lot of this has been taken from us. But we don’t have to sell them the very technology they can put in their advanced weapons systems to then turn against either Taiwan in the Pacific or eventually, possibly the United States of America. I think there are great bipartisanship on this issue.
McCaul said that tension between the two countries is high, and that both Republicans and Democrats wanted to confront Chinese threats.
McCaul said he thinks we can be bipartisan on national security in the face of one of the greatest threats to this country and the world.
“No one, of course, wants a cold war, but that isn’t the issue. What we want is a China that is not going to be an aggressor state, that’s not going to be building up its military and threatening the United States, and certainly not making the negative comments that it’s making instead of just openly apologizing for sending a spy balloon over our most sensitive military sites,” Turner said.
According to The Post, the administration is even qualifying the meaning of President Biden’s State of the Union pledge to support Ukraine “as long as it takes.” It quotes an administration official saying, “‘As long as it takes’ pertains to the amount of conflict,” but “it doesn’t pertain to the amount of assistance.”
This idea is not a good one. Despite the remarkable success of the Ukrainian military thus far, pushing Ukraine to mount a premature offensive could have catastrophic results. It will take time for Ukraine to receive the deliveries of advanced Western tanks, for example. And deploying those tanks before Ukrainian soldiers are fully trained and before Ukraine has a maintenance infrastructure in place could result in unacceptable losses and squandered resources.
The First Russian President Rejoinds the First Three Years of World War II. Vladimir Putin Addresses Ukraine’s “Greatest Battle” During the Cold War
Putin acknowledged Russia’s significant losses in the war and called on those present to stand for a moment of silence in their memory. The Russian leader also promised a range of social support packages for families of the fallen.
Putin said that Russia was suspending its participation in New START, but he stressed that Russia was not pulling out of the treaty.
New Start came into force in 2011; it was extended until 2026. It limits the number of strategic nuclear warheads that both Russia and the U.S. can deploy. The two countries have a huge amount of deployable warheads.
During the Pandemic, regular inspections under the agreement were put on hold. Russia postponed talks to restart those inspections, as relations between Moscow and Washington continued to deteriorate over Ukraine.
Putin also said he’d instructed his military and civilian atomic energy agency to be prepared to test additional nuclear weapons – should the U.S. carry out new tests first.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken described Russia’s decision as “deeply unfortunate and irresponsible.” The U.S. has previously accused Russia of violating the last remaining nuclear arms treaty between the two countries.
At the same time, Ukraine has continued to press for newer and more sophisticated weapons, including longer-range missile systems and fighter jets, requests the US has denied previously. During Biden’s dramatic, surprise visit to Kyiv on Monday, Zelensky pressed Biden on both, hoping a personal appeal would finally sway him.
Putin presented a now-familiar list of grievances against the West, including what he described as its moral and spiritual collapse whose values, he said, threaten the children of Russia. The head of the Russian Orthodox Church, Moscow Patriarch Kirill, was seated front-row center in the hall.
The Russian leader again equated Ukraine’s “neo Nazi” government with Nazi Germany, and said Russia was defending itself just as the Soviet Union defended its territory during World War II.
The speech made good on the Kremlin’s long held promise, as it ended up canceling last year’s address due to bad news from the battlefield in Ukraine.
Legislators from both chambers of the parliament will gather on Wednesday for an extraordinary session, when Putin will also speak at a massive Moscow rally.
It was a year ago that the Russian leader demanded the formal recognition of two pro-Moscow republics in eastern Ukrainian, as well as international diplomatic efforts to find a solution to the conflict in the Donbas.
Putin put together his National Security Council for a televised session to discuss the independence issue, which is now famous for photos of the Russian leader holding court across a hallway to consult with his closest advisors.
Security Assistance to Ukraine Since 2014: A Review of the U.S. Response to Ukraine’s Crimea Warfare and the Need for More Air Defense
As with Bidens decision to give a missile defense system, it has often taken a dramatic increase or change in battlefield conditions for the US to do more.
At key inflection points – from the decision to provide howitzers in April, HIMARS multiple rocket launchers in June and tanks last month – the ratcheting up of US security assistance has been matched or complemented by allies.
Even as the process has gotten more organized, with US equipment now often landing in Ukraine within days of Biden approving a security package, the urgency persists.
Not only would the US follow through on sweeping sanctions, Biden also detailed his intent to provide more security assistance than any provided on a consistent basis to Ukraine since Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014. An administration official told me that Biden made the pledge crystal clear.
Jake Sullivan, the National Security adviser, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff all speak with their counterparts multiple times a week.
Sullivan and Milley also hold regular joint calls with top Zelensky adviser Andriy Yermak and Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, the commander-in-chief of Ukraine’s armed forces. Sullivan and Milley can get the most up to date reports from the battlefield and assess the needs of the Ukrainian military.
The Ukrainian requests are routed to the Pentagon where officials conduct a detailed analysis of the requests to assess the impact they will have on the battlefield and how quickly the Ukrainians can train and integrate the new weapons.
One senior State Department official said they had “never seen this bureaucracy work as fast as it’s working,” but added, “We all need to do more, faster.”
The senior administration official said that the president was angry about the problem and pressed his team to find a way to help them fight it.
Ukraine has limited air defense assets and will find it hard to protect its troops or cities if Russia’s campaign on civilian infrastructure leaves it too thin.
At the White House Sullivan hosts a daily meeting of key National Security Council officials to coordinate the government-wide effort to support Ukraine, which began an effort to get US allies to also getUkraine more air defense capabilities.
“We really went around the world and found for them, not only additional systems that other countries had and persuade them to transfer them, but parts,” the official said, allowing Ukraine to get non-operational S-300 systems back online.
The senior administration official said they have adapted to make sure the Ukrainians had what they needed to be successful. They have adapted.
Source: https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/22/politics/ukraine-us-military-aid-reservations-one-year/index.html
The U.S. Army and President Zelensky’s War on Artillery in Ukraine: Is Ukraine in a Better Place than Ukraine?
“A lot of the ammunition stocks have been depleted in Europe,” Estonian Ministry of Defense Permanent Secretary Kusti Salm told CNN, and Europe’s current industrial capacities are limited in terms of how fast the ammo can be manufactured.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said earlier this month that the West needs to increase production capacity if it is going to be able to meet Ukraine’s needs.
The Ukrainian military has instinctively wanted to fight an artillery war, US officials say, which involves firing a crushing amount of heavy artillery at the enemy’s defensive lines.
US officials have told the Ukranian army to change to a fighting style that uses rapid, unforeseen movements and a combination of different combat arms instead of relying on too heavily on mortars.
The first group of Ukrainians trained on this style of fighting wrapped up their course last week in Germany, according to the Pentagon. Gen. Pat Ryder. More than 700 soldiers started a five-week training course.
According to John Kirby, the US officials provided input on Zelensky’s peace plan at his request.
The plan calls for the removal of Russian troops and the release of Ukrainian prisoners of war, as well as the restoration of the state borders with Russia.
The allies are getting to the realization that the war is going to be longer, according to the defense secretary. “It’s going to be an extremely costly war and in order to manage this strategy, you need to have an end goal.”
Zelensky’s room to maneuver in terms of what he is willing to accept has “gotten a little smaller” as Russia’s atrocities have grown, however, the senior State Department official said.
The senior State Department official said the US understands this position. The official said that any democratically elected leader in the country needs to sell something to his or her public. “But I think he’s committed to get there.”
Secretary Austin said that the outcome of the victory will be determined by the people of Ukraine. “So I don’t want to speak for President [Volodymyr] Zelenskyy or the Ukrainian people.”
We’re going to focus on what’s in front of us right now and try to putUkraine in the best position to continue to be successful. And I think that’ll lead us to Ukraine being in, again, a good a good place, whether or not the fighting continues; or whether or not they decide to go to the negotiating table.
I don’t want to speculate at this point. I think, you know, my goal is to provide the capabilities required to achieve their objectives. And that’s what me and the chairman are going to continue to stay focused on.
Putin’s army in Ukraine is ill-equipped: Are troops trained to survive the war? How putin might take his troops out of Ukraine?
They can be driven out or Putin can take his forces out of Ukraine because of his bad position. And that could happen as well. He could do this today and no one could stop him. And we all know that this is this war is happening because of one man; one man’s desire to erase his neighbor’s boundaries and occupy his neighbor’s territory. And this is, again, unjustified, unprovoked. And Putin could end this at any point in time in the future.
Large numbers of troops from Russia are ill-equipped and not trained to do their job. In many cases, those troops are meeting their demise in short order. We can expect more of that.