Taiwan to China: How to counteract Beijing, and how to deal with the pressures of supporting Beijing’s actions during the September 11 visit to Taiwan
On Wednesday, there will be a discussion of how to support Taiwan against Beijing’s actions, as well as how to deal with the pressures of supporting Taiwan against Beijing’s actions.
Beijing launched extensive military drills around the democratic, self-governing island and suspended several lines of communication with Washington in response to Pelosi’s visit – raising concerns about aggressive and destabilizing steps it may take in response to Tsai’s sit-down with McCarthy, even though this meeting is taking place in the US.
It also cut off contact with the United States over a number of issues from military matters to combating climate change, in retaliation for what it viewed as a violation of its sovereignty.
It warned that allowing Tsai to stop in the US while travelling to and from official visits in Central America could lead to a serious confrontation between the two powers.
As she prepared to leave on her 10-day trip, in which she will connect with the world and like-minded democracies, a defiant Tsai promised to not let external pressure stop her from doing so.
The meeting is taking place in California, and not Taiwan, and at a particularly sensitive moment in Chinese foreign relations and ahead of a presidential election in Taiwan that could cause Beijing to change its approach to the island.
“This puts the burden on China not to overreact, because any overreaction is only going to push China further away from the world,” said Yun Sun, director of the China Program at the Stimson Center think tank in Washington.
The opacity of China’s system – and the potential for competing interests within its vast bureaucracy – also make it difficult to accurately predict its response.
Washington and Beijing are struggling to stabilize their communication amid flaring tensions over issues from a downed suspected Chinese surveillance balloon to semiconductor supply chains – raising the stakes of potential damage to that relationship if Beijing lashes out as it did when Tsai met Pelosi.
The culmination of a two-term presidency is what Tsai wants to achieve, says the political scientist at the Australian National University. He said that she has the image of the Taiwanese president, who has taken US- Taiwan relations to new heights and gives Taiwan almost unparalleled international visibility.
That increased visibility – and enhanced cooperation with the US – has followed China’s mounting pressure on the island, which sits fewer than 110 miles (177 kilometers) from the mainland coast.
China’s Communist Party claims the self-governing island democracy as its own despite never having controlled it, and has vowed to take the island, by force if necessary.
The party has undertaken a sweeping expansion of its military capabilities over the past decade under leader Xi Jinping – and ramped up its pervasive economic, diplomatic and military pressure on Taiwan.
Beijing is being accused of preparing for an invasion, though its official language still suggests that scenario is not the preferred option for achieving reunification.
In recent years, increasing military, economic and diplomatic pressure on the island from Beijing has meant that Congress has remained a pillar of that unofficial relationship, as well as driving legislation to enhance support or coordination.
The US maintains an unofficial relationship with Taiwan and Tsai’s transit in the country is therefore not an official visit in order to keep Washington aligned with its longstanding “One China” policy.
Pelosi’s trip – the first from a lawmaker of that rank to the island in 25 years – generated a fever pitch of nationalist and anti-US rhetoric in mainland China.
As Taiwan prepares for a presidential election in January, a fierce response could push voters away from Taiwan’s main opposition party Kuomintang (KMT), widely seen as more friendly toward Beijing.
It could also cause a problem with another high profile trip, this time from Ma Ying-jeou, a former president and member of the KMT, the first visit from a current or former Taiwan leader to mainland China since 1949.
The tour is a chance for Ma to send a conciliatory message to Beijing and should not be used as a reason for animosity between the two sides.
This week, as Tsai is expected to meet with McCarthy, French President Emmanuel Macron and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will head to China – an important opportunity that Xi may not want to overshadow with military posturing.
An aggressive response also risks stoking confrontation with the US, not yet six months after Xi and US President Joe Biden called to enhance communication during a face-to-face meeting in Bali.
Meeting with the US Ambassador to the Pacific Island, Tsai, in Los Angeles, during a Joint Training Exercise on Taiwan and the Taiwan Strait
The Ronald Reagan Presidential Library on the north side of Los Angeles is where they will meet instead of in Taiwan as originally proposed by McCarthy.
Tsai made a flight to Central America to visit two countries that do not accept Beijing as a legitimate government.
For Taiwan, Tsai’s stop in Los Angeles serves as reassurance that the U.S. — by far the island’s most important partner, even though it does not officially recognize Taipei — remains firmly supportive of the island.
Starting last weekend, China’s People’s Liberation Army held live-fire joint force training exercises for its air force, navy and ground forces — preparation, China has suggested, for much larger drills that could once again disrupt international shipping lanes and encircle Taiwan, should Tsai go through with the meeting with McCarthy.
Taiwan’s foreign ministry stated that it “does not accept interference or suppression by any country for any reason and will not set limits on itself because of intimidation or interference.”
The visit has been heavily criticized by Taiwan’s ruling political party, a testament to the contrasting approaches taken by both sides of the Taiwan Strait.
“We will closely follow the development of the situation and resolutely safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity,” the consulate said in a Monday statement – one of multiple condemnations from Chinese officials in recent weeks as reports of the meeting emerged.
“Taiwan will not back down, and friends in the US who support Taiwan and Taiwan-US relations will not back down either. The statement says that Democratic partners will become more united and have more frequent exchanges.
A source close to McCarthy told CNN the meeting is an important moment for the Speaker, who has made creating a select committee on China one of his top priorities and views the US relationship with China as a central issue of our time.
Wednesday’s meeting is also expected to include Rep. Pete Aguilar of California, who is a member of Democratic leadership, and the leaders of the new select committee on China, among others, according to a copy of the invite list obtained by CNN.
A week later, she met with three more US senators in New York. Republican Sens. Joni Ernst and Dan Sullivan and Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly all met with Tsai, according to sources familiar with the meeting. The meetings were reported by the Wall Street Journal.