The 2024 Early Election: What Biden, Trump, and DeSantis can’t yet say about their 2016 presidential run & how they’re confronting them

Many voters are pining for a break from the past even though President Joe Biden and Donald Trump are moving towards a rerun of the White House race.

Lots of surveys show Democrats would prefer someone else to run in 2024 instead of Biden, mostly because of his age — though no one can definitively point to who the alternative should be.

It is early. In a time of crises at home and abroad, logic, history, polls and pre-race predictions often don’t count for much.

But the race is on, whether voters want it or not. Early perceptions of the contenders’ strengths are important since they shape the decisions of potential rivals and donors in the early money chase. Donald Trump is already a declared candidate, although he could use a relaunch after a sluggish start, and Biden is giving every sign that he will run, suggesting that he will let the country know early in the new year.

The midterm elections, in which Democrats held the Senate and Republicans won a tiny House majority, help explain the poll’s findings. Voters hoping for a return to the normality Biden had promised after generational public health and inflation challenges weren’t exactly enthused with the president, whose low approval numbers largely kept him off the campaign trail in battleground states. But they didn’t trust a GOP still largely under Trump’s sway to fix things either.

The poll also hints at one of the emerging paradoxes in the nascent 2024 race. Biden and Trump seem vulnerable even though they are the most powerful figures in their parties, because of the changing political environment and the fact that they’re young.

While DeSantis, for instance, has impressed conservative voters by seizing on hot button culture war issues like immigration, transgender rights, anti-Covid 19 measures and supposed voter fraud, he has not yet come face-to-face with Trump. The Florida governor, who won an easy reelection race last month, has not said whether he will run against Trump, who set him up in his first gubernatorial race with an endorsement. But a string of primary debate clashes with Trump would test his capacity to take a blow, his ability to think on his feet and his willingness to counter-attack a former president who still benefits from a personality cult among GOP base voters.

Still, any president is deeply vulnerable to unexpected outside events that could splinter his approval ratings and chances of reelection. And the oldest president in US history will have to confront the age issue every day. Republicans will seize on any slackening of the campaign trail pace, or even a cold, as proof he’s unfit for a second term. The chances of an adverse event are higher for people in their 80s.

But the president ends the year in better political shape than Trump, and appears to have stabilized his slump. This summer, only 25% of Democrat-aligned voters wanted him to be their nominee. Now that figure is 40%. A sitting president usually has an advantage over a primary challenger because people who want them do not have one particular in mind.

Republican politics may or may not be at a moment of transition. The next few months will be crucial to Trump’s future. On the other hand, more Republicans are saying that it is time to move on after the failed candidates in the midterms.

And Trump’s dinner with extremists with a record of antisemitism like White supremacist Nick Fuentes and rapper Kanye West at Mar-a-Lago is bolstering their arguments that his general election viability is damaged beyond repair. Trump’s so-far lackluster campaign, which looks like it was declared to make it easier for him to portray criminal probes into his conduct as persecution, isn’t convincing anyone so far.

And yet, the former president’s allies, like Reps. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia and Jim Jordan of Ohio, will be hugely influential in the new GOP House majority. The fact that Republicans didn’t do well in November will make it harder for extremists to damage Biden and hurt Trump as they try to turn control of half of the Capitol into a weapon.

GOP hopefuls will see that 38% – the lowest point of three CNN polls on the topic this year – as an opening for an anti-Trump candidate. There could be another field that splinters opposition to the ex-president.

An Arkansas gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders, a Republican, Anti-DeMotivated Senator, to the State of the Union

Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders gave a combative speech Tuesday evening in response to President Joe Biden’s State of the Union address, drawing a sharp contrast with Biden as she delivered a series of blistering criticisms of the president.

“The dividing line in America is no longer between right and left — it’s between normal or crazy,” Sanders said in her rebuttal to President Biden’s State of the Union address.

Some will complain his words didn’t work to unify the country; I’d argue we cannot be unified without speaking the truth, and Biden called that out. He spoke to his base and let them know he did not forget why he is able to stand at that podium.

Sanders gained national prominence as White House press secretary under former President Donald Trump, serving as a staunch defender of the then-President and his policies, and frequently clashing with national reporters.

She was the first woman to be elected as governor of Arkansas. Her father was the governor of the state from 1996 to 2007.

The Republicans are using their new power in the House to investigate the Biden administration, because they think the position of power the GOP has is a good one.

Republican congressional leaders McCarthy and Senate GOP leader Mitch McConnell announced earlier this month that Sanders would give the response for their party to the State of the Union.

She said that she will never forget the trip that she took with the president on December 25, in which they traveled on every foreign trip.

The State of the Union: How Secretary Jacobs Became a Leader of the Conservative Party in the War-Torn West Iraq?

“We landed in the war-torn part of western Iraq,” Sanders said, and described a scene where hundreds of troops “who were in the fight against ISIS” had gathered in a dining hall to celebrate Christmas.

“They had absolutely no idea that the president and first lady were about to walk into that room,” she said, saying that when that happened, “the room erupted. Every demographic, from race, religion and region to political party, started chanting in perfect unison, “USA, USA, USA.”

The governor signed executive orders barring the use of the term “Latinx” in state documents and prohibiting critical race theory from being used in schools.

McConnell said in his statement that Sarah Huckabee-Sanders was the youngest governor in the nation and that she was an advocate for conservative principles.

The State of the Union speech is being viewed as a preview of the reelection campaign by President Joe Biden. The look at the past two years shows Biden is in a strong position to succeed in his goal of becoming president.

In one exchange, Biden even called out Republican members who celebrated funding for their constituents in the very infrastructure bill they voted against. Biden was fearless as he fought the Republicans to prevent cuts to Social Security and Medicare, nor did he shy away from mentioning the horror of January 6, 2020 as well as the consequences of the 2020 election.

McCarthy’s shushing motion is symbolic of his troubled road as speaker. Will he continue to “shush” the extremist, conspiratorial and “Never Biden” wing of his party — whom he has empowered and elevated — as they act out and get in the way of his agenda, which might even include working with Biden from time to time?

What Did Bill Clinton Tell Us About the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election? The Case of Paul Begala, the Managing Director and the Chairman of the National Committee on Investigations

Paul Begala, a Democratic strategist and CNN political commentator, was a political consultant for Bill Clinton’s presidential campaign in 1992 and served as a counselor to Clinton in the White House.

Here’s the reality about the State of the Union these days: Most Americans are not watching. People have heard a lot of things during big political speeches. More taxes on the richest Americans, the importance of infrastructure, raising teacher pay, lowing health care costs — all stances that poll relatively well.

Mr. Biden still did not shy from the fight. He was happy to jabbing Republicans even when he was promoting bipartisanship. At one point, he noted that many Republicans voted against an infrastructure package yet still asked for money from it for their districts.

Kristen Soltis Anderson, a CNN political commentator, is a Republican strategist and pollster and author of “The Selfie Vote: Where Millennials Are Leading America (and How Republicans Can Keep Up).”

Biden reflected on the feeling of unmoored in recent years despite grabbing a message of losing pride in America. On January 6 he referred to the Capitol attack as an insurrection and stated that democracy faced its greatest threat since the Civil War. But many members in the audience still support the lie that the 2020 election was stolen and are part of that threat to democracy.

A statement as basic as everyone should “pay your fair share of taxes,” and it’s wrong for corporations “making record profits while paying zero in taxes” was met with stone-faced looks from half the chamber, even when Biden pointed out that an oil and gas company paying 15% tax is less than what a nurse pays.

Joe Biden: When America Meets China: The Rise of a Democracy, a Force for Good, When Democracy Meets Inflation

Biden was also fearless as he adeptly wove together the painful reality of “the talk” Black parents have with their kids about how to interact with the police and humanized all sides of a renewed call for criminal justice and policing reforms rooted in core American values of trust, public safety, accountability, mutual respect and equal protection under law.

He said, “That when families who feel pinched in the pocketbook can finally afford a vacation, we get whacked with resort fees at places that aren’t even a resort.”

Biden says that the government is a force for good. The idea of democracy was brought back to life by Biden, who made it concrete again. Too bad this current Congress is operating in an alternate reality.

But for middle-of-the-road voters, neither the southern border nor inflation received much attention from the President — despite both issues being of importance to voters. Neither did the Chinese spy balloon, whose coast-to-coast journey undermines Biden’s tough talk toward Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Biden recounted his past legislative accomplishments without offering much in the way of concrete areas of bipartisan agreement going forward, which is a requirement for anything to pass a divided Congress.

It is very difficult to think how Joe Biden would have delivered a better performance. He was feisty, full of energy, marshaled his arguments effectively and even batted back Republican catcalls with good humor. By the end of the evening, he looked like a boxer who can’t wait to get into the ring again.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/08/opinions/highlights-lowlights-biden-sotu-roundup/index.html

Did Georgia’s Lieutenant Gov Move the Nucleon in the 2020 Presidential Election? A Reflection on a Candidate that Hasn’t

Georgia’s Lieutenant Gov was a CNN political contributor. He is a former professional baseball player and author who wrote “GOP 2.0: How the 2020 Election Can Lead to a Better Way Forward for America’s Conservative Party.”

Biden actually received bipartisan standing applause, and the way he talked about it was a stark distinction from Republicans’ caricature of Biden as beholden to the extreme left.

Karen has worked for over two decades in the field of politics, media and cultural change. She has held a variety of roles, including top Democrat communications strategist and spokeswoman, political commentator, television and radio show host, White House staffer, business and communications adviser and advocate for social justice and civil rights.

But he now faces an even sterner test: Did he actually move the needle? This public appearance could shake up politics because of the power it has. Former Presidents Bill Clinton and Ronald Reagan each had the capacity to change minds when they held a microphone.

Maybe Biden started getting through to potential voters on Tuesday, convincing them to vote for him. Democratic strategists will be more confident about his chances for reelection if that is the case. But if he doesn’t pick up steam after a night like this, they may wander off the reservation.

Biden vs. Greene: The Case for the First State of the Union from a Black Man, Tyre Nichols

David Gergen is a senior political analyst at CNN and has worked for White House advisers to four presidents. He graduated from Harvard Law School and then co- founded the Center for Public Leadership at the Harvard Kennedy School.

Still, it was political malpractice for him not to explicitly call for Congress to pass the George Floyd Justice in Policing Act. The family of Tyre Nichols, a 29-year-old Black man who was fatally beaten by Memphis police officers last month, deserved to hear it.

Jones was a democrat in the 17th Congressional District of New York. He is also on the US Commission on Civil Rights.

The trick, though, comes in standing up for what’s right even while speaking to the masses. This was the first State of the Union since the Supreme Court stripped a fundamental right from American women in overturning Roe v. Wade. Even though abortion is a concern for women who want to decide when and if to have children, it was not brought up until well into the speech.

Some members of the Republican caucus were interested in highlighting the differences between the thoughtful, unity-emphasizing Biden and the party’s shameful descent. Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia, among others, repeatedly booed and yelled throughout the speech; when he introduced the parents of Tyre Nichols, who was last month fatally beaten by Memphis police officers, and the Ukrainian ambassador, she stayed seated. It might say more than Biden could.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/08/opinions/highlights-lowlights-biden-sotu-roundup/index.html

The White House is Going to Hell: How President K.L.Tsay Responds to the Monterey Park Mass Shooting and urged lawmakers to Seize the Border

The author of “OK boomer, Let’s Talk: How My Generation Got Left Behind” is a journalist based in New York. Follow her on Twitter @JillFilipovic.

It’s weird to me that my hometown of Monterey Park had a mass shooting last month that killed 11 people. So it was incredibly moving when the president thanked Brandon Tsay for his heroism disarming the suspected gunman in the attack. It was a poignant reminder of our continuing need for gun reform – as well as deserved recognition of a brave American.

On immigration, the president urged his fellow lawmakers to “come together… and make it a bipartisan issue like it was before.” He noted that immigration problems wont be fixed until Congress acts, despite his administration’s new efforts at the border. The president alone can not make permanent fixes to our immigration system. His common-sense section of his speech caused some members to chant, “Secure the border” in the House. This shows the president’s dilemma: He supports reasonable immigration reform, but other Americans don’t. Republican lawmakers are focused on generating chaos and division around the issue.

But the most notable moment of the night was when the new Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy visibly shushed his own conference as members yelled, “Secure the border!” It was a surprisingly gallant act of leadership from someone who has aligned himself with former President Donald Trump, voted to overturn the 2020 election results and packed the House Oversight Committee with election deniers.

The Second State of the Union Address: The First Day of Reconciliation During Biden-Harris Campaign and the Promise of a New Generation of Republican Leadership

Ashley Allison is the CEO of Turner Conoly Group and a consultant for Planned Parenthood Action Fund. She worked as a senior adviser to Barack Obama and as an aide to the Biden-Harris campaign.

President Biden delivered a plea to Republicans on Tuesday for unity in his second State of the Union address, but vowed not to back off his economic agenda and offered no far-reaching, new ideas in a speech filled with a familiar litany of exhortations from more than four decades in political life.

But it has done little to actually unify the country. Recent polls suggest Americans are just as divided as they were before the midterms, and a solid majority expect little more than partisan gridlock from Washington the next two years.

Justin Gest is an associate professor at George Mason University’s Schar School of Policy and Government. He is the author of six books on the politics of immigration and demographic change including, most recently, “Majority Minority.”

Frida Ghitis is a world affairs columnist, a former CNN producer and correspondent. She is a weekly opinion contributor to CNN, a contributing columnist to The Washington Post and a columnist for World Politics Review.

Arkansas Gov. Huckabee said it was time for a new generation of GOP leadership during the State of the Union address.

Ms. Sanders directly went after him over his age. I am 40 years old, the youngest governor in the country. And at 80, he’s the oldest president in American history,” she said. She added: “It is time for a new generation of Republican leadership,” without saying whether that meant her former boss, Mr. Trump, who is 76, should be nominated for a third time.

How Will We Live and What Will We Do in the New Congress? The Case of Marty Walsh, the First Woman to Lead America, and Medicare and Social Security

In his speech, Biden talked about the achievements of his administration, which included lower prescription drug prices and record new jobs. Things are better if he says so, and the reality is that isn’t true. American people are still suffering.

The labor secretary, Marty Walsh, was a designated survivor in case of a calamity at the Capitol, but he wasn’t able to attend the chamber.

As important as his program may be, the president also faced pressure to ensure a smooth performance in front of what was likely to be his largest television audience of the year. He would be asking voters to keep him in the White House until he’s 86. Many Democrats are concerned about him being too old and want a younger generation to take over leadership of the party.

And she drew contrasts between her and Biden, pointing out that the president is the oldest to serve in American history, while she is one of the youngest governors in the country.

“I’m the first woman to lead my state, and he’s the first man to surrender his presidency to a woke mob that can’t even tell you what a woman is,” Sanders said.

She ended her speech by telling about how she and former Trump went to Iraq, which she said represented a lot of the grand reverence Americans should have for their country.

And he showed a clear contrast between himself and right-wing House Republicans, who couldn’t help themselves, hectoring Biden repeatedly despite newly minted House Speaker Kevin McCarthy explicitly instructing them beforehand not to do so.

The president didn’t call for a whole lot of new policy initiatives from the new Congress — beyond, for example, ending what he called “junk fees” in travel, entertainment and credit cards. He is likely going to campaigns on what he has already done by drawing a big- picture difference between his vision for America and Republicans’.

Some of what is likely to make Democrats comfortable is the pluck he showed — the willingness and ability to spar with Republicans and depict them not as normal, but extreme.

The best example was Medicare and Social Security. He deftly riled up House Republicans, accusing some of wanting to cut the popular entitlements. He was careful in that section to note that “some Republicans want Medicare and Social Security to sunset every five years.”

That was something Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla., the former National Republican Senatorial Committee chairman, opened the door to with his “Rescue America Plan.” Democrats have run with it, even though McCarthy has said cuts to Medicare and Social Security are “off the table.” House Republicans were incensed by Biden’s accusation, which they saw as too far.

The exchange removed the lid from the comity that existed earlier in the evening. Republicans shouted and heckled at Biden and others, accusing him of being a “liar” and yelling out “It’s your fault!” Biden decried deaths of Fentanyl.

When mixed with a bit of nationalism, Americans love an under-the-weather story. That’s especially true today with right- and left-wing populism clearly the hot ticket in politics. Both Biden and former President Donald Trump have populism at their core — the little guy vs. the people in power. They’re modern-day Howard Beales, mad as hell and not going to take it anymore.

Biden went after corporate stock buybacks, oil and gas company profits, Big Pharma, “wealthy tax cheats” and billionaires (hello, Sen. Bernie Sanders).

It was a heavy dose of left-wing populism with policies that are actually quite popular. He even made news, saying that he is going to “require all construction materials used in federal infrastructure projects to be made in America.”

Biden Talk at the Tevatron: When America Will Make Sense of China, and Where Will We Go From Here? “An Embracing America Will Never Give Up”

“I will make no apologies that we are investing to make America strong,” Biden said. “Investing in American innovation, in industries that will define the future, and that China’s government is intent on dominating.”

But there wasn’t much beyond about 200 words of the more than 7,000-word speech devoted to what’s become inarguably one of America’s top geopolitical threats.

Biden noted the presence of the Ukrainian ambassador and spoke about what the US had done for the country.

But beyond that, there wasn’t much on either country. It shows that Biden’s reelection campaign is going to focus on domestic issues.

“After years of Democrat attacks on law enforcement and calls to ‘defund the police’ violent criminals are roaming free while law-abiding families are in fear,” she said.