US-Taiwan Relations: A Capstone Event in Tsai’s High-Yang-Ming-China Cross-Strait Relations

“Although sometimes the U.S. will make some so-called concessions and interact with China, Tsai’s meeting with McCarthy shows the U.S. will stick to its bottom lines and will not let China manipulate it on cross-strait issues,” says Lin.

Beijing sent dozens of warplanes across the median line of the Taiwan Strait, and fired multiple missiles into its surrounding waters, as part of unprecedented military drills.

It cut off all contact with the United States over a number of issues from military matters to climate change, in reprisal for what it perceived to be a violation of its sovereignty.

It also slammed Washington for allowing Tsai to stopover in the US while en route to and from official visits in Central America, warning it could lead to “serious” confrontation between the two powers.

As she set out on her 10-day trip not to let external pressure stop Taiwan from connecting with the World and like minded democracies, she defiantly stated that she would do things her own way.

Beijing will not be keeping a close watch on how Tsai’s movements are interpreted, but it will decide how much military action to take in response to her meeting.

A less aggressive response would suggest that Beijing does not want to escalate tension with the US to a level that can get out of hand.

The opacity of China’s system – and the potential for competing interests within its vast bureaucracy – also make it difficult to accurately predict its response.

Washington and Beijing are struggling to stabilize their communication amid flaring tensions over issues from a downed suspected Chinese surveillance balloon to semiconductor supply chains – raising the stakes of potential damage to that relationship if Beijing lashes out as it did when Tsai met Pelosi.

For Tsai, who is entering the final year of her two-term presidency, “it’s clearly a capstone event,” according to Wen-Ti Sung, a political scientist at the Australian National University’s Taiwan Studies Program. “She has this image as the Taiwanese president who has taken US-Taiwan relations to new heights, and who … has been able to give Taiwan almost unprecedented international visibility,” he said.

The island has increased visibility due to Chinas mounting pressure and is closer to the mainland coast.

The Communist Party has vowed to take the self-governing island by force if necessary in order to claim it as its own.

Over the past decade, the party has increased its military capabilities and stepped up its diplomatic and economic pressure on Taiwan.

Some in Washington are worried about Beijing preparing for a military invasion to achieve its goal of reunification, though the official language of China says that is not its preferred option.

China considers Taiwan part of its territory and vehemently objects whenever Taiwanese officials engage in high-profile international meetings, though that has not stopped a steady stream of U.S. Congress members and European parliamentarians from visiting the Asian island.

Washington has never officially recognized Beijing’s claim to the island of 23 million despite acknowledging that Taiwan is part of China.

Pelosi’s trip – the first from a lawmaker of that rank to the island in 25 years – generated a fever pitch of nationalist and anti-US rhetoric in mainland China.

As Taiwan prepares for a presidential election in January, a fierce response could push voters away from Taiwan’s main opposition party Kuomintang (KMT), widely seen as more friendly toward Beijing.

It could also jar with another high profile trip happening now: a tour of mainland China from former Taiwan president and senior KMT member Ma Ying-jeou, the first visit from a current or former Taiwan leader since the end of the Chinese Civil War in 1949.

Ma’s tour is a “once in a half a century opportunity to send a conciliatory message between the two sides, Beijing shouldn’t want to tank that,” said Sung, the political scientist.

This week, as Tsai is expected to meet with McCarthy, French President Emmanuel Macron and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will head to China – an important opportunity that Xi may not want to overshadow with military posturing.

An aggressive response could cause a confrontation with the US, not yet six months after the two leaders called to improve communication during a face to face meeting.

Tsai’s visit to Central America as a counterexample to China’s demands to establish a legitimate government: Guatemala, Belize and the United States

The pair are set to meet, along with other American officials from both political parties, at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library on the northern outskirts of Los Angeles, rather than in Taipei, as originally proposed by McCarthy.

Tsai then made her way to Central America for official visits to Guatemala and Belize, two of the 13 countries that recognize Taiwan and not Beijing as a legitimate government.

The U.S. remains supportive of Taiwan even though it does not officially recognize the island, thanks to the stop in Los Angeles by Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen.

Starting last weekend, China’s People’s Liberation Army held live-fire joint force training exercises for its air force, navy and ground forces — preparation, China has suggested, for much larger drills that could once again disrupt international shipping lanes and encircle Taiwan, should Tsai go through with the meeting with McCarthy.

Taiwan’s foreign ministry said that Beijing’s threats were ridiculous, and that it would not set limits to itself because of interference.

His visit has been criticized by the Taiwan’s ruling political party for being too close to China.