Why the National Rally is going to victory in the Second Round of the European Elections? An assessment of the first-round results by Prime Minister Jordan Bardella

The far right is on course for a big victory in the second round, after taking about 33 percent of the vote. Mr.Macron will have to invite Jordan Bardella to form a government if the National Rally gets an absolute majority in the National Assembly. Under a system of “cohabitation” with the president, National Rally would be in power, free to carry out its hard-line anti-migrant agenda. For the first time since the Vichy regime, France would be in the hands of the far right.

Speaking to cameras after first-round results came in Sunday evening, Bardella pledged to be “the prime minister for all the people of France … respectful of opposition, open to dialogue and concerned at all times with the unity of the people.”

In the event of a hung parliament, Mr. Macron would have very few options. The situation of political and institutional blocking has not been faced by a modern French president. His only option would be to attempt to bring about a so-called national unity government, comprising deputies from Renaissance, the Republicans and possibly some moderate deputies from the New Popular Front. It is likely that the gathering wouldn’t reach a majority.

Things are not going according to the plan. Three weeks ago, President Emmanuel Macron of France called a snap vote hoping to regain political control after a crushing defeat in the European election. On Sunday, in the first round of voting, the far-right National Rally topped the poll and the left-wing New Popular Front coalition finished second. In third place was the Renaissance party of Mr.Macron.

The complicated nature of this particular two-round election comes from the high turnout. There are more than a hundred races this election, involving three or more candidates, because of the rules determining how candidates qualify for the second round.

That makes it possible for parties that placed second and third in round one — like that left-wing coalition and Macron’s own Ensemble alliance — to strike deals with each other, have one candidate step aside and call on their voters to cast a ballot for the other allied party.

“Our objective is clear: stopping the National Rally from having an absolute majority in the second round, from dominating the National Assembly and from governing the country with its disastrous project,” French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal said on social media.

Many countries are concerned about the situation in France, but many who support populists are encouraged by the result.

The Belgian Le Soir newspaper slams Macron as “a president who, far from protecting his country against the far right for good, has legitimized it by abandoning the ballot box to it.” “Why is the country headed by a far right leader?” asks the German newsmagazine.

In Ukraine, the most-read article in Ukrainskaya Pravda newspaper was a news item on the election, which ends on a note ofconcern: “The National Rally’s position on the Russian-Ukrainian war remains unknown. While the party currently claims it will assist Ukraine in defending itself against Russian forces, it has also established red lines, such as not giving Ukraine long-range weaponry.”