The Story of David Netanyahu: How the Left and Right Revisited Israel in the End of Greatness – An Analysis of Miller’s Comments on Netanyahu’s hung election victory
Editor’s Note: Aaron David Miller is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and author of “The End of Greatness: Why America Can’t Have (and Doesn’t Want) Another Great President.” Miller was a Middle East negotiator in Democratic and Republican administrations. His own opinions are expressed in this commentary. Read more opinion on CNN.
If Bill Murray was not hired as a technical adviser to Israel, he might have been. Based on pre-election polling it seemed that Israel was headed for yet another Groundhog Day-style hung election for the fifth time in just short of four years.
But Netanyahu’s victory wasn’t just an “all about me” headline. It reflects and consolidates trend lines that have been in evidence for quite some time. Likud is the most stable and durable political party in Israel’s system. Netanyahu is the master of Israel, and the country is now more shaped by the right wing than at any point in its history.
He knows Netanyahu is a political survivor and an immensely talented politician, but at the same time, he knows that Netanyahu is part of Israel’s story for decades.
The left and center-left in Israel once dominated by the iconic Labor Party, the driving political force for the first three decades of independence, has been reduced to a shadow of its former self with just a handful of seats in the Knesset.
While the center-left and right bloc of the Prime Minister Yair Lapid made a respectable showing, the fracturing of the left and Arab vote gave the more cohesive and disciplined Netanyahu bloc an advantage.
Participation in the government is seen as a way to further legitimize the movement by the Religious Zionism bloc. He declared in his victory speech that he was still not the prime minister. Netanyahu will try hard to keep the coalition together so that he can get his card through legislation.
“Any move perceived as infringing on Israel’s democratic and pluralistic nature will have a damaging effect on Israel’s relationship with world Jewry, not to mention the free world,” Greenberg told NPR. “The strength of Israel’s democracy — and also its relationship with world Jewry — hinges on how the government portfolios are assigned and how the coalition acts.”
Israel has been drifting rightward for years. Indeed according to analyst Tamar Hermann of the Israeli Democracy Institute, a full 60% of the Israeli electorate is right-wing; 12-14% identifies as left and the remainder are in the so-called center.
The new prime minister is now beholden to these extremists and the two ultra-Orthodox parties who will have a long list of demands. Indeed, Likud polled 31 seats, the right wingers and ultras have as many or more, effectively making him a minority within his own government.
It could be forgiven for thinking that this kind of government won’t last. There may be more that ties this coalition together. The two Orthodox parties are eager to get support for their religious schools after they had no power.
How will this government actually behave? It is safe to say that Israel will most likely make their domestic and foreign policy problems worse as it nears its 75th anniversary next year. The rule of law in Israel is in serious danger as the country becomes more divided.
The Republicans have set itself up as the go to party for Israel, even if Sen. Paul is outlier. And given Netanyahu’s honorary membership in the GOP, it should surprise no one if he finds a way, as he did during the Obama administration, to cavort with the Republicans.
There will be more settlements and support for settlers, more effort to consolidate Jerusalem control, and less resources for the Arab citizens of Israel if there is a serious confrontation with Palestinians in the West Bank or in Jerusalem.
Israeli Nationalist Itamar Ben-Gvir and the Future of Israeli-Palestinian Peace in the Light of the Israeli-Israeli War
Biden knows that Netanyahu’s threshold for taking military action against Iran is much lower than America’s. The US President is trying to coordinate with Netanyahu on Iran, instead of pushing him into a corner, in order to find a way to deter Iran without resorting to military force.
Some of Israel’s allies abroad are concerned that Netanyahu may appoint far-right politicians to key positions in his government.
Jewish nationalist Itamar Ben-Gvir, who met with Netanyahu on Monday, is expected to become a senior Cabinet minister. He could face a boycott by the Biden administration, according to a former Obama administration official.
“I think the U.S. is likely to boycott him,” said David Makovsky of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, who worked on Israeli-Palestinian peace talks under former President Barack Obama. “I have reason to think that they are strongly considering this.”
While convicted of inciting anti-Arab racism in Israel, Ben-Gvir visited the Al-Aqsa Mosque compound in Jerusalem this year and caused tensions between Israelis and Palestinians. “We’re the master of the house here,” Ben-Gvir said.
“Having someone who’s going to, I fear, play with matches, given this flammable piece of real estate, I think is a real danger,” Makovsky said. “I think [Netanyahu is] going to be swimming upstream if he feels that he’s going to be able to normalize the position of Itamar Ben-Gvir.”
Netanyahu has sought to calm fears, assuring his government’s policy would be “responsible” without “pointless adventures.” Ben-Gvir said in an op-ed Monday, “I have matured, moderated.”
Danny Danon thinks Netanyahu will be in charge of relationship with the Biden administration since he will be the next speaker of parliament.
Danon toldNPR that he believes the issue of Ben-Gvir is overblown. “We will be running the government, and we will be dealing with the important issues … and we proved in the past that we can be responsible about many of the issues, concerning foreign and domestic issues.”
Sara Greenberg, who was Netanyahu’s adviser for foreign affairs and worldwide Jewish communities, warned about the risks of allowing extremists in the upcoming Cabinet.
Ben Gvir – a long time provocateur and heir to the party of the extremist Rabbi Meir Kahane – is now in charge of Israel’s police, putting him in an influential position to stir up trouble in Jerusalem and between Israel’s Arab and Jewish citizens.
What Biden isn’t saying during his Saudi-Arabic Fist-Bump: How he’s going to run the Israeli issue
The US Embassy said in a short statement that it was unacceptable to have such actions happen during the visit.
If you believe that the Biden administration is going to wage a sustained campaign against the Netanyahu government’s direction, you should lay down and wait.
It is possible that tough statements from Washington will help Netanyahu. If Netanyahu’s partners turn their views into actions, the administration needs to be aware that words alone aren’t enough.
The challenges will define his presidency, which the administration has deprioritized. The focus of that region is not resolving, it is managing. And trying to keep as many issues off the President’s plate as possible.
Biden got a taste of the risks during his ill-fated “fist-bump” trip to Saudi Arabia in July last year. He gave Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman what he wanted – recognition. He received a slap in the face. With gas prices rising, two weeks before the midterms, the Saudi-Russia dominated OPEC+ cartel cut production significantly.
Republicans control the House while the Democrats are in charge of the Senate. The race for the White House won’t be concluded until 2024, but will start this year. The Israel issue is always loaded politically, even if Biden is not running.
Source: https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/04/opinions/biden-netanyahu-ben-gvir-israel-miller/index.html
Biden, the Palestinians, and the Third Palestinian War: The End of the War for Israel and the Prospects for a New Cold War
The key ingredient in a credible negotiations process is that leaders on both sides are willing and able to take decisions and bring their supporters along with them. These simply do not exist now.
Without imposing consequences for provocative Israeli actions in Jerusalem and the West Bank, and working to press Palestinians to control terror and violence, Biden will likely – before his first term is up – have yet another crisis to add to an already full plate.