The Run-Up: An Analysis of the Chris Christie Candidate (and her husband) Tom Haley’s Election Campaign in New Hampshire
On one side was Chris Christie, on the other was a mailer that said Chris Christie was the only anti-Trump Republican in the race. The true anti-Trump Republican. The other side of the mailer called Haley a “MAGA Republican”, and that’s what it said about her. And now of course, that mailer came a little bit late. But what’s the psychology of the Chris Christie voter who’s been left at the altar, so to speak, right?
When DeSantis drops out, it’s hard to imagine his voters going towards Haley. And indeed, a lot of national polling has showed that former President Trump is the number one second choice of voters who were initially supporting Governor DeSantis. So.
The guide will explain how it could be a tight race between two wildly different candidates in the New Hampshire primary. In New Hampshire, I am Astead Herndon, from the New York Times. This is “The Run-Up.”
Scala: I would say, OK, since I wrote that of the campaigns out there, I think Haley was trying to make the most strides in building local organization. I did see a couple of Trump canvassers this week. I suppose the difference between Haley and other campaigns of yore is that the local organization would start earlier than it did this time.
He said the race was over. “I mean, even if Nikki Haley can win in New Hampshire, she’ll still have a real uphill slog. She will have to win her home state of South Carolina at the end of February.
Even if she didn’t win New Hampshire, Ben Ginberg, a retired Republican attorney who is a leading expert on the nominating process, says that the deck is stacked against her.
It seems like it’s going to be a party issue if it’s Biden or Trump. I don’t think anyone feels great about those choices. But this is what we got. Maybe not.
Do we want to be scared in November? The only person who can beat Donald Trump is Nikki, aka Shake in “Pettiness”
She asked if people want to be scared in November or not at the end of her speech. “Do you want your kids to be proud in November or not? Then let’s do it.”
Haley and her allies have spent more than $30 million on ads in New Hampshire. The data from the tracking firm Ad Impact shows that more than $5 million was spent in the past week. Trump and his allies have spent about half as much.
“Now we have a chance to change everything about the election in our country,” he says. Nikki is the only person who can beat Donald Trump.
That is, he said, “If enough Republicans and independents get a sense of sanity back and are less interested in drama and just pettiness. We’re not amused by pettiness. That’s what would be taken away from where we are today by Haley.
Rejoinder: Who Backs You in the Primary? Former South Carolina Governor Haley’s Pitch for the Most Electable Presidential Candidate
Independents can participate in the primary in New Hampshire. There are more Republicans. Who did you back in the New Hampshire primary in 2016, if you don’t mind me asking?
A couple of days earlier at Grill 603 in Milford, N.H., the former South Carolina governor delivered her now-familiar pitch that she is the most electable Republican in the race.
It’s not clear which poll she was referring to, though she was talking about a hypothetical general election result and not the primary. There isn’t anything showing her ahead of Trump in New Hampshire. Haley has tried to connect with potential supporters at multiple daily events in the lead up to the primary.
I told you from the beginning that I wanted to be strong in Iowa. I feel like we did that,” Haley snapped back at reporters when asked about her path to victory.
Mr. Sununu seems content to end his intraparty crusade against Mr. Trump after he leaves office early next year: “My full plan is to go back into the private sector.” He did not seem prepared for a large-scale vanishing act.
The next best thing: Add a little bit of color to what the media is doing, and why it might be good for a candidate who leaves office
“I like this media stuff,” he said in his interview with The New York Times, which was sandwiched among an appearance on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” a podcast hit and a Bloomberg interview in the span of 90 minutes. I haven’t said much about the media, but I have been to see how they work. And some things I’m impressed by. And some things I’m not. So I thought, oh, maybe I could add a little bit of color to what the media is currently doing and maybe enhance that game.”
According to Mike Murphy, a Republican strategist who has run many primary campaigns through New Hampshire, she was taken from Triple-A to major-league three or four weeks ago. “He’ll leave office a very successful, multiterm governor. There are lots of New Hampshire offers. They wanted him for the Senate last time. They can always want him another time.”
“It’s like fantasy football,” said Thomas D. Rath, a former state attorney general and a longtime Republican strategist. “I think part of him really wanted to try the bigger game, but I think he was realistic enough to say that’s not going to work. So this is probably the next best thing.”
Putting up More Trump Signs on People’s Properties and Businesses than Sununu Does: Is New Hampshire Primary Trump Haley Really Cool?
Overall, we rank freest. Like, we have the most unique amount of freedoms here. We don’t have a sales tax. We don’t have an income tax. We have no capital gains tax. There is no belt law in our state. There is no helmet mandate. We do not have a state-mandated minimum wage. We have a right to carry. You don’t have to register your firearms. There is a place to buy fireworks. We don’t have a capital gains tax. We do not have inventory tax.
Oh, absolutely. Nobody is going to get a shot. I put up more Trump signs on people’s properties and businesses than Haley has in the whole state, I think.
Absolutely. I mean, it’s very corrupt state. The governor is tied to the bushes. You realize Governor Sununu, whose father was — Governor John Sununu was chief of staff of Bush Senior, who used to talk about the new world order, right?
Source: Everything You Need to Know About New Hampshire
What are the New Hampshire Primary Trump? None of the Efforts, Neighbors, or What Have They Done About Them?
Only to see flag waving and everything like that at their events. But they’re nothing like this. I mean, obviously, who has vendors like this? There is nothing like it. There was nothing like it. I have been to find you never.
Hillary Clinton is like a straight up soulless, robot like, Republican counterpart, and so is Nikki Haley, who’s the Facebook guy? Mark Zuckerberg style — all the blood drained out of you, dead rock, disgusting, Bill Gates style. Blech. Like, you could just throw all those people in a barrel.
Source: Everything You Need to Know About New Hampshire
The Good, the Bad and the Ugly: What Do You Need to Know About New Hampshire Premier Trump Haley? An Empirical Assessment
It’s great. He is just great. He’s funny. He’s got good humor. It’s important that humor is funny. People are funny and ask what they care about with policy. But it’s like, humor matters because that’s your soul. If someone is actually funny, they are really funny, and it shows a connection to other souls.
So you are comparing to your other options? So I guess it’s just the closer match, right? Compared to Nikki Haley, who wants to go to war with everybody and — Trump’s usually — errs on the side of, let’s not get involved in that, compared to, let’s get involved in Ukraine, let’s get involved in this Israel conflict, let’s get involved in Afghanistan, let’s get involved in Iraq. Every time, let’s get involved — like, everyone has their pet, their little pet. They want. oh, I have a war, I have a war, me too, me too, me too, me too. It is stupid, and Trump is saying that. And so I respect that, you know.
Source: Everything You Need to Know About New Hampshire
The New Hampshire Primary Trump: What Are You Expecting to Know About the Democratic Presidential Candidate? An Empirical Explanation
Excited to be here. And I’ve never been to a Trump rally. So it just seemed like fun and Trump’s hilarious. So I mean, you get to see the guy live, but —
There has been talk about how Haley might be doing better in New Hampshire. When you’re in your communities, when you’re around, are people talking about who they’re going to vote for? Who do you think will win on Tuesday?
This transcript was created using speech recognition software. It may contain errors despite being reviewed by human transcribers. Please review the episode audio before quoting from this transcript and email [email protected] with any questions.
I can’t ask our supporters to volunteer their time and donate their resources if we don’t have a clear path to victory. Accordingly, I am today suspending my campaign.
Trump is superior to the current incumbent, Joe Biden. That is true. I will honor the pledge I made to support the Republican nominee.
He has my endorsement because we can’t go back to the old Republican guard of yesteryear — a repackaged formed of warmed over corporatism that Nikki Haley represents.
Source: Everything You Need to Know About New Hampshire
What Donald Trump and Haley are up to in New Hampshire, and what they can tell us about the state: What they want to know about the next president
He was interested in issues of wokeness when polling indicated that Republican voters cared more about border and economy. He tried to be Trump lite, but people were more interested in real Trump. He was still, at points, painfully awkward.
We could have a continued race, it is close. It is hard to imagine how this primary will continue, if he blows Haley out of the water.
In other words, DeSantis’s decision to drop out doesn’t change much at all. It makes it official what was already true. Donald Trump and Haley are competing in New Hampshire.
There are many signs of a Trump rally on the street. You’ve got your cars driving past with American flags honking and rallying people up. And you have a big emerging, snaking line outside of the arena for people who are here five, six hours early.
Source: Everything You Need to Know About New Hampshire
The Run-Up with Astead Herndon and Produced by Astead, Part II: An Introductory Report on the 2024 Election
Astead Herndon reports on the Run-Up with me, as well as production companies such as Caitlin O’Keefe, and Anna Foley. It is edited byRachel Dry, Lisa Tobin, and Frannie Carr Toth with original music by Dan Powell, Diane Wong, and Sophia Lanman. Sophia Lanman and Chris Wood mixed it for the fact check.
There are many people who are deserving of special thanks, from Paula Szuchman to Neal Anderson to David Halbfinger. Do you have a question about the 2024 election? Email us at the [email protected]. Record your question with the voice memo app on your phone, and then send us the file. The email is the [email protected].
If you like the show and would like to get updates on the latest episodes, you can follow our feed on your podcasts. Thanks for listening, y’all.
I thought we’d get a few of these in the next couple of months. But because of the unity of the message that we’ve been getting from Republicans, we might have to savor this one, considering it might be one of our final competitive primary days.
Yeah. I mean, I’m excited in the same way that — I think before Iowa, I was really exhausted with the idea of talking about how people were going to vote without them voting. These days, we don’t have to worry about polling and how people express themselves.
I’m certainly watching it to see how it ends up, but it’s not going to tangibly matter in the race for the Democratic nomination, which is not much of a race at all, at least to this point.
And the primary challenge of the order is really the challenge for the country. How do we embrace those voices that have been left out while also remembering and respecting our traditions? And those are not easy questions. But I believe our party will work it out by 2028. I think we will all be unified behind Joe Biden.
I think people in New Hampshire realize the importance of the history in this country, even if it’s only 40 percent of the people who were enslaved in Charleston.
I believe that the president is motivated by his desire to elevate the voices of Black and brown communities. But it has to be done also with recognizing that history and tradition of New Hampshire so that no one’s delegates get disqualified. I am pretty sure we will work towards that outcome.
You speak to a lot of people about the DNC decision. Did the DNC make a mistake when it switched the order and left New Hampshire out of the picture?
But President Biden’s challengers — the long shot challengers like Dean Phillips, like Marianne Williamson — they are all appearing on the ballot, which has put the White House and the Biden campaign and Democrats nationally in a kind of conundrum. South Carolina is the first place where their presidential primary starts because of their new state order. But at the same time, they’re seeking to avoid the embarrassment of one of Biden’s challengers, mainly Dean Phillips, who’s invested a lot of money in the state of New Hampshire, to finish above Joe Biden and possibly create bad headlines or create a sense that this president is suffering from a lack of enthusiasm within his own party.
So this matters for Biden narratively. But does it matter in terms of delegates? How much does this race matter to Biden in the long run?
Yeah. It is not about the actual delegates that lead to a presidential nomination, it is more about the narrative. Because since the DNC is not recognizing the New Hampshire primary, this is frankly just a state contest that media and voters will follow but will not actually matter in terms of the delegates they count at the Democratic National Convention that officially nominates the person to be president. That all starts in South Carolina.
Source: Everything You Need to Know About New Hampshire
What do the Dems have in Common with President Trump, and what are we doing to stop the riot? A story of a true hero and a friend
I mean, this is a real colonial Northeast home. There are a bunch of yard signs that say “Write In Joe Biden.” And we have some Biden-Harris signs also on the lawn.
And I’m going to remember to fill in the bubble by the side, by his name. You need to do that as well. And make sure that your friends and neighbors are doing that.
We will have plenty of time to make sure that we have a fair representation of this nation. And my view is that having the four states — New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada, Michigan — all having a critical role is important. I think the DNC will figure out how to do that.
It’s great. You mentioned that the Democrats are here as well. What are the Democrats doing? What are you watching during the Democrats quarter?
She is framing herself as the only person who can stop the inevitable march to 2020 a second time. I think she has sharpened her attacks on Trump. She has gone beyond her usual line of saying that chaos follows him.
She talked at the event about how he cozied up to dictators, how he didn’t follow through on policy victories, and how he added money to the national debt. And that’s all coupled with her core message that she’s been saying from the beginning about electability.
I am not sure if you watched it yesterday, but Trump was at the rally and he went on a rant. He is going off about how the Capitol didn’t have security in it. All that was kept from happening by Haley. Where was she during the riot? She should have been there, what is he talking about?
Yeah. I mean, for my ears it was pretty different, particularly hearing the change in her messages from the debates, where she was largely not mentioning Donald Trump and focusing on her other opponents, until now, where she’s gotten the kind of one-on-one match-up she wanted.
But I wanted to gut check that kind of feeling. I asked the reporter from The Times if this messaging is new, because I had been following her for months. When did Haley start talking about Trump?
This is definitely not the typical stump speech. In the last few days, she has really improved her argument. She has improved her case against Trump. Trump and Biden have been lumped together as part of this old guard by her.
Yeah. The majority of Americans don’t want to see two 80 — and Trump’s in the 70s. But she says, the majority of Americans don’t want to see two 80-year-olds running for president.
Source: Everything You Need to Know About New Hampshire
What are the main things that we want to see next week? When will New Hampshire get rid of Donald Trump? How will the world vote?
Mm-mm. We often see this with candidates saying their most sharp attacks the final couple of days. The campaign has a hope. Why are they doing this now? Why did they not do this a couple of months ago?
I wasn’t in DC on January 6. I wasn’t at the Capitol. But you know what? Look at the same person today as two years ago. That is what happens. We have to be honest about that.
I think there’s been a recent shift in tone that specifically we’ve seen in Haley that really points to the importance of independence and how her campaign is trying to court them.
Well, it’s kind of the obvious question. Will Donald Trump be as dominant in New Hampshire as he was in Iowa? And will Republicans rally around him in such a way where we see a similar type of 30-point-ish victory?
OK. It’s Monday morning. We are sitting in your hotel room in New Hampshire. Ron parted ways with the race yesterday. And we’ve spent the weekend talking to Haley supporters and Trump supporters. With everything in mind, what are the main things we should be watching for on Tuesday?
And with all due respect to Iowa, thanks for playing, but give me a break. I mean, do you know Trump got 56,000 votes in Iowa out of over 3 million people? It is less than 2 percent. It might be that the choice of the republican party is dictated by that. Nope, Hell no. I don’t think so. You know who’s going to dictate the choice? You guys are. Now, the key to all this is the vote, getting out the vote, right? You know you get it. You are here. The higher the vote turnout, the better chance we have of shocking the world and actually delivering a win. And it can be done. It’s possible.
You are right. Look, we’ve got two, three days to go. The whole world is watching the country is watching. They’re waiting to see, is New Hampshire going to do it again? Is New Hampshire going to show how they do polling? We are, you are right. You’re darn Right, we are. Look, we have been crisscrossing the state. I have had the honor of crisscrossing —
Right up in Manchester right now, there’s this big Trump rally happening. People are outside. We were outside at 2 PM. People have been there since 7:30, 9:00 AM. How do the Haley’s of the world catch up with that level of energy? That seems like a different level of devotion.
That is what helps her. Trump is a bully. He’ll lie and say anything that will go for him. He believes if you tell a lie enough times, people believe it is the truth. And he’s told plenty of lies.
I said — I don’t know if this is of benefit to you, but I said it to someone also who was working for Nikki. She reminds me of the same energy that Hillary had when she was running against Trump. It’s inspiring and motivating.
It’s not all about her. It is not about Trump making him bigger or better, it is about how she can help the country and the party.
Back when she first announced. She has shown great strength in her opposition to the divisions in this country. We need to work together to make the country better. I think she can do that.
Source: Everything You Need to Know About New Hampshire
What Do You Think About Trump? What Have You Learned About the New Hampshire Primary Trump Haley? How Does he Choose Them? What Does He Want?
I don’t know how Trump gets people to like him. I just don’t know. He has a lot of his personal values that I am offended by. The economy and all of that he did for us was good. But his personal values —
Politics are fine. I think he did a lot for our country. And I wish they would have finished the wall and done a lot of his — the economy was better, all of that. He just says, “it’s all about me and thank me.” He’s just — his personality is just too big, too much about himself. I don’t like his — way he treats women a lot of times.
So you’ve been seeing some of this Trump takeover from afar of the party. What do you think about that? How does that — as someone who tried to pick Jeb Bush, Nikki Haley — those are different types of politicians — how has it been watching him kind of take over the party in that time?
Source: Everything You Need to Know About New Hampshire
What do we want to do about Donald Trump? What can we expect from New Hampshire, what are we going to say, and what can we do about it?
We are here because we want to win. She’s come in strong in New Hampshire, that sets her up for other states. I think she can win New Hampshire.
You know, Iowa, obviously, went Trump’s way by a big margin. He’s leading here. What’s your expectations for him on Tuesday? What would be the outcome of a success?
For me, I supported him in ‘16 and in ‘20. But January was a deal breaker. I think you can put as many good people around him, but he’s still Donald Trump. And I just can’t support him anymore.
I supported him in the previous two elections, but I would not call him a personality. I agree with some of the policies, but I think he’s not what we need right now.
So I’ve been with Haley since she mentioned earmarks at the Iowa State Fair. And I think Trump and Biden were both terrible on spending. I think Trump added to our debt. He increased the deficits. Nikki Haley is a true alternative. She’s young, she’s optimistic, and she’s truly different.
A very loud Trump rally is happening not too far from here. I’m guessing for you all, who prefer Haley, what do you think about the prospect that it could be Trump again, even as people who — I imagine don’t want that to happen?
You think bird brain Nikki Haley can get people to come out this early, this damn cold? I don’t think so. Her damn neocon warmongering having ass couldn’t get five people, I bet.