Take Aways from the Iowa Republican Caucus: The False Case of Donald Trump and the Unfavorable Views of the GOP
So much of this race has been a race for second place, and that held up. Trump finished with more than 50% of the vote, had the most enthusiastic voters in polling, and they showed up – despite predictions that they might not because of record cold weather and high expectations that he would win.
Trump won by such a large margin that The Associated Press was able to call the race at 8:31 p.m. ET, just half an hour after voting began. It conducts a massive voter survey so they were able to do that. Trump had an “insurmountable lead” in key polling places in the state.
The GOP base is all about Trump’s election lies. CNN, NBC News and others sponsored entrance polls of Iowa caucus-goers.
The signs are clear. Trump’s campaign noticed it, they raised tons of money from these indictments, and Trump’s lead has only expanded in the GOP nominating process this year. According to the polls, his lead in Iowa increased over the last six months.
It is a different story with a general-election audience. An NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll from October found that majorities of independents and Democrats believe he has done something illegal, and views of Trump haven’t budged much – Republicans love him, but majorities of everyone else have an unfavorable opinion of him.
Source: 5 takeaways from the Iowa Republican caucuses
“Because I Will Be Back in the Great State of New Hampshire,” Hillary Clinton reportedly told the Iowa Legislature at a televised press conference
Haley finished within a couple thousand votes for DeSantis. She denied that all of Iowa’s 99 counties had been won by Trump. She won one county, Johnson County in the Eastern part of the state – by ONE vote.
It’s difficult to make a case for a path forward for him since he wants to stay in. Consider that he and the super PACs supporting him spent millionsof dollars on campaign ads, he visited all 99 counties, got the endorsement of the state’s popular governor and its most influential religious leader — and it still didn’t matter.
“Tonight, I will be back in the great state of New Hampshire,” Haley said during her speech Monday night. She said the Americans were asked if they wanted more of the same or a new generation of conservatives.
She argued that “America deserves better” because majorities dislike both President Biden and Trump – and don’t like that they’re both 80 or approaching it.
It’s not a bad argument. Now, she needs to show that in a more moderate state, where independents can vote, that she can give Trump a real run for his money.
Her win in Johnson County is indicative of the problem she faces. It is the county home to the University of Iowa that has the highest percentage of college degrees. And look at the groups Haley won in the state overall:
So, the electability argument Haley has been trying to make didn’t resonate in Iowa, and her team spent a lot of money trying to drive that message home.
If she can’t prove it to New Hampshire voters by winning or finishing a reasonably close second, it’s going to be tough for her to convince donors and supporters that she should continue.
Turnout was low in these caucuses compared to the record-setting 2016 turnout. Only about 110,000 Republicans caucused with 99% of results in, as of 1:30 a.m. The time has arrived.
Even though the Iowa Republican Party shows Trump winning 51 percent of the votes there, other Trump fans on online platforms are claiming electoral conspiracy, with Florida governor Ron DeSantis second at 21 percent and a former UN ambassador third at 19 percent.
On Trump’s own platform Truth Social, Seth Keshel, a retired US army captain who has become a leading voice in the election denial movement in recent years, wrote: “Haley by one vote in Johnson County screws my prediction of 99/99 to Trump. Audit!
On pro-Trump message board The Donald, where a lot of the online organizing of the January 6 riot took place, users took issue with Haley’s Monday night claim that Iowa voters made the presidential election a “two-person race.”
Others think that the one vote loss was caused by the deep state. To win by a single vote is too much. “It looks like a ‘Fuck You’ from the Deep State.” Responses in the same thread urged Trump to call for a recount in order to “trigger” his opponents.
The Democratic Party’s First False Claims: A Case Study of a Democratic Causal Candidate for Nikki Haley
“The Iowa Democratic party has reportedly pushed for and paid TENS OF THOUSANDS of its registered voters to temporarily switch their party registration from Democrat to Republican so they can caucus for Nikki Haley,” Joshua Hall, who was once convicted of threatening to kill Democratic congressperson Eric Swalwell, posted on X.
While there was no evidence anyone was paid to vote, CBS reported that in at least some Johnson County precincts, election officials ran out of forms printed to allow people to switch party affiliations on the night.
Since the first false claims of a stolen election emerged in the wake of Trump’s loss in 2020, no one has given any evidence to back up their claims. Those peddling lies related to election integrity are getting started, with a long primary season now underway.
Some Trump supporters think that he was cheated in the Iowa caucuses because he lost a single county.