The Early Times of the House GOP Conference: The Candidates and Elections for Nancy Pelosi in the Preliminary Republican Conference on Monday, November 15

The Republicans are on track to take control of the house in January, when a new congress will be in place, but they will have to find someone to be the speaker.

McCarthy has been working the phones locking down support from across the conference and has received former President Donald Trump’s endorsement. But even if he becomes his party’s speaker nominee, as is expected, he could still face a rocky road to securing the gavel.

Nancy Pelosi, the current House speaker, has not yet decided what her next move will be. There has been increasing speculation about her political future, whether or not she will run again for the top leadership spot for House Democrats or if she will step aside as a new generation of potential leaders waits in the wings.

Republicans are scheduled to hold a candidate forum on Monday evening, followed by leadership elections on Tuesday, November 15, according to a copy of the schedule shared with CNN.

House Democratic leadership elections have been announced for Wednesday, November 30. Voting will take place behind closed doors using an app.

To be elected to any position in Democratic leadership, a candidate needs to win a majority among those present and voting. If more than two candidates run and no one wins a majority, the candidate with the least votes after the first round of voting will be eliminated and the next vote will be a second round. That process continues until one candidate wins a majority.

The Challenge to the House GOP Whip: A Phenomenological Analysis of McCarthy’s Effort to Distinguish

The challenge for McCarthy is that he faces conservatives who are determined to destroy him. The group has leverage in the GOP majority that they are using to extract concessions from the leader. McCarthy has already given in to a number of their demands, including making it easier to topple the sitting speaker, but it is unclear whether his efforts will be enough.

McCarthy might be in a position to stand up to the most extreme members of his conference. The path to the GOP majority went through moderate seats like New York, and it’s going to be difficult to hold them in the next election. Swing-state voters overwhelmingly rejected the pro- Trump extremists who were present in the election. The anti-Trump vote was decisive in both the House and the presidency in the last two years.

The race for House GOP whip – a position that will only open up if Republicans win the majority – was already competitive, though Rep. Tom Emmer, who chairs the House GOP’s campaign arm, was seen as having the edge since he was likely to be rewarded if they had a strong night.

He doesn’t know if a small majority impacts his campaign, he said Tuesday. His pitch to members is similar to McCarthy’s.

Meanwhile, Rep. Jim Banks of Indiana, a Trump ally and the head of the conservative Republican Study Committee, also officially declared his candidacy for the whip’s position. The deputy whip, Drew Ferguson ofGeorgia, wants the post so that his experience on the team will be more valuable in a slimmer majority as the chief vote counting job.

“Of course. Well, you know that I’m not asking anybody – people are campaigning, and that’s a beautiful thing,” the California Democrat told Bash. I don’t want anyone to give me anything. My members are asking me to consider doing that. Let’s just get through the election.

Insights from the Florida Democrat in the upcoming caucus chairship race for the New U.S. House Speakership

2 House Democrat, in the role of House majority leader, and South Carolina Rep. Massachusetts Rep. Katherine Clark serves in the role of assistant Speaker and New York Rep. Hakeem Jeffries serves as House Democratic caucus chair.

Joe Neguse of Colorado, the co-chair of the Democratic Policy and Communications Committee, will be running for caucus chair to replace Jeffries who is term limited.

The current chair of the party’s campaign arm lost his reelection, and now there is a race to replace him.

A race for the spot has been announced by Democratic Representative Tony Cardenas of California but others are thought to be in the running as well.

The tiny GOP House majority that takes over in January, after a disappointing midterm performance, would mean a fragile governing mandate for any party at any point in American history. The ideological struggle waged by pro-Donald Trump extremists would have made even a more comfortable majority volatile.

A short-term fix that takes the issue into early next year could provoke a gargantuan showdown with the White House in the first days of GOP control of the House, with members firmly committed to slashing Biden’s spending plans and domestic agenda. Even though that would be a high risk for McCarthy that could backfire with a national electorate, setting up the possibility of such a confrontation might be one way to shore up his vote in the speakership campaign.

It also shows how much she has grown in her personal power after breaking with some GOP members that wanted her to support McCarthy for speaker. After coming to Congress as a fringe figure, and quickly losing her committee assignments over her past retweets of violent rhetoric against Democrats, Greene now promises to be one of the most prominent faces of the new GOP majority. That she has the latitude to make what to many people are offensive and insurrectionist comments without any fear of rebuke from her party’s leader says a lot about her position. While Trump may be no longer the leader he once was in other places, his influence over his followers in the House like Greene is still strong.

McCarthy gave the Georgia Republican a pass for her latest effort to mock the trauma of the Capitol insurrection when he granted her a pass on Tuesday. The congresswoman had said over the weekend that had she been in charge on January 6, 2021, the riot would have succeeded and the mob would have been armed. She later insisted she was being sarcastic after the White House complained her comments were a “slap in the face” to law enforcement and against fundamental US values.

How much should we spend during the year? The case of a Republican senator who says no to a spending bill for the government for a full year

This is one reason why the current year-end tussle over whether to fund the government for a full year – a bipartisan framework agreement for which was announced Tuesday night – or for just a few months is so critical since it could dump a fiscal crisis on the lap of a weak and easily manipulated new speaker next month.

To show the voters that GOP governance addressed some of the biggest problems like inflation will be important. But while he has announced he will form a select committee to examine China’s growing threat, which could unite both parties, most of McCarthy’s recent rhetoric has focused on a relentless set of investigations of the Biden administration and conservatives’ interest in impeaching Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas.

McCarthy was questioned by CNN on Tuesday about the latest inflammatory comments by the woman, and replied that she believed she was being facetious. His attitude was not a surprise; it was consistent with his attempts to rewrite the history of the worst attack on US democracy in modern times, for which he briefly said Trump bore responsibility.

The same dynamic was at play when McCarthy declined to directly criticize the ex-president for meeting with white supremacist Nick Fuentes at a dinner also featuring Kanye West, the rapper now known as Ye, who has recently made a string of antisemitic remarks. In a histrionic performance at the White House after meeting Biden and other congressional leaders last month, the House Republican leader falsely claimed that Trump had condemned Fuentes four times, when he hadn’t done so once.

CNN’s Raju and Melanie Zanona reported Tuesday that McCarthy had signaled at the White House meeting that he’d be open to a large bill. But while Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell worked on such a measure Tuesday and declared it “broadly appealing,” McCarthy told his members that he was a “Hell no” on the measure.

The split raises the possibility of future tensions between Republicans in the House and McConnell and it could make it more difficult for some republican senators to vote for a spending deal now.

Biden’s 2023 presidential campaign: The reality of divided government as a consequence of the latest GOP/Russian election campaign and the economic crisis in Russia

The unprecedented possibility that former President Donald Trump, who’s already launched another bid for the White House, could face indictment could tear the nation further apart at a moment when American democracy remains under grave strain. The already stirring 2024 presidential campaign, meanwhile, will stir more political toxins as both parties sense the White House and control of Congress are up for grabs after the closely fought midterms.

Abroad, the war in Ukraine brings the constant, alarming possibility of spillover into a NATO-Russia conflict and will test the willingness of American taxpayers to keep sending billions of dollars to sustain foreigners’ dreams of freedom. President Joe Biden is in a crisis and he faces even more challenges from China and Iran as well as from the rise of North Korea.

Washington is bracing for a sharp shock. The red wave that didn’t arrive was the big story since November. This week, the reality of divided government will become clear. A House Republican majority, in which radical conservatives now have disproportionate influence, will take over one half of Capitol Hill. Republicans will use investigations, obstruction and possible impeachment to ruin Vice President Biden’s reelection hopes.

Democrats will be in the minority under a new generation of leaders, potentially leading to government shutdowns. The GOP will look into the business ties of the president’s son and the crisis at the southern border. The GOP could suffer, however, if voters think they overreached – a factor Biden will use as he eyes a second term.

Democrats in the Senate are still celebrating the expansion of their majority. After two years, the chamber is now 51-47 in their favor. In order to carve out a reputation as a force for bipartisanship and effective governance, the president will travel to Kentucky this week. He will be taking part in an event in which Republicans, including Senate Minority LeaderMitch McConnell, will highlight the infrastructure package that passed with bipartisan support.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/02/politics/political-trends-2023-biden-mccarthy-trump/index.html

What can the FBI tell us about the future of the country? The case for Attorney General Merrick Garland and the case against his hoarding of classified documents

Attorney General Merrick Garland could shortly face one of the most fateful decisions in modern politics: whether to indict Trump over his attempt to steal the 2020 election and over his hoarding of classified documents.

If Trump broke the law, his case creates an even deeper problem because of the evidence presented in the House January 6 committee’s criminal referrals. A failure to prosecute him would set a precedent that puts ex-presidents above the law.

“If a president can incite an insurrection and not be held accountable, then really there’s no limit to what a president can do or can’t do,” outgoing Illinois GOP Rep. Adam Kinzinger, a member of the select committee, said on CNN’s “State of the Union” Sunday.

I fear for the country if he isn’t guilty of a crime because every future president can say, “Hey, here’s the bar.” And the bar is, do everything you can to stay in power.”

Like it or not, with his November announcement, Trump has pitched America into the next presidential campaign. His future is in doubt after dominating the Republican Party for seven years. His poor track record and limp campaign launch, which came a year after his election loss, have hurt Trump’s reputation.

Potential alternatives, like Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, could potentially test the ex-president’s bond with his conservative base. As more and more Republicans deem him a national liability, it is necessary for Trump to show he is still the GOP top dog.

It’s close to becoming a new piece of history, as the reelection campaign of a president who is over 80 years old is edging closer. His success in staving off a Republican landslide in the midterms has quelled some anxiety among Democrats about a possible reelection run. Biden is the strongest card because he has beaten Trump before. Still, he wouldn’t be able to play that card if Trump fades and another potential GOP nominee emerges. DeSantis, for example, is roughly half the current president’s age.

Polls show that voters do not want a White House battle between Trump and Biden, which is why this is the best bet. But shifting politics, the momentous events in the months to come and the vagaries of fate means there’s no guarantee this will be the case come the end of the year.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/02/politics/political-trends-2023-biden-mccarthy-trump/index.html

What will the US Senate decide in 2022? A senior GOP source tells CNN: Defying the Ruling. Why we are going to war

And who knows how long US and European voters will stomach high energy prices and sending billions of taxpayer cash to arm Ukraine if Western economies dip into recession this year.

Rarely has an economy been so hard to judge. In 2022, 40-year-high inflation and tumbling stock markets coincided with historically low unemployment rates, which created an odd simultaneous sensation of economic anxiety and wellbeing. There will be a question of whether the Federal Reserve can bring about a soft landing without triggering a recession that many analysts believe is on the way.

Washington spending tussles and government shutdowns could be bad for growth. The economy will be outside any political leader’s capacity to control, but its state at the end of the year will play a vital role in an election that will define America, domestically and globally after 2024.

The House may face a similar set of calculations today. A large majority of Republicans want McCarthy, who has been a staunch ally of former President Donald Trump, but if the prolonged battles of the 1850s are any guide, they would do better to select someone who is acceptable to the entirety of their caucus. They risk prolonging the balloting for weeks or even months if they don’t.

The senior GOP source tells CNN that McCarthy is still defiant despite the opposition and that he thinks we are going to war. “Never backing down.”

The last two weeks of the House Speaker job: how many votes do you need? The case of Kamloop Corrigendum for the House Rules package

The speaker of the house needs to be elected by a majority of members on the House floor. That amounts to 218 votes if no member skips the vote or votes “present.”

The tally for the second ballot was 203 votes for McCarthy with 19 votes for GOP Rep. Jim Jordan of Ohio. McCarthy was nominated ahead of the second ballot by Jordan to show that he wasn’t competing for the job. Critics of McCarthy voted for Jordan even though McCarthy made a move that didn’t deter them.

The small majority that allowed Republicans to survive the November elections was enough to embolden a small group of conservatives who had long been distrustful of McCarthy.

The last two months have seen an all-out scramble for the speakership, which has included strategy sessions with allies on and off Capitol Hill, intense negotiations over rules changes and phone calls with members.

The position is traditionally filled on the first day of a new Congress, followed by the swearing in of new members, but with the floor fight spilling into Wednesday, members-elect have yet to take the oath of office.

Incoming lawmakers arrived on the floor on Tuesday with their families in tow, expecting to pose for a photo and get started with their first day as lawmakers, but were instead greeted with a several-hour-wait as the speaker election went to multiple rounds of balloting – the first time that’s happened in 100 years.

The committees will not be able to pay staff if the House Rules package is not approved by the end of business in January, according to a letter obtained by CNN.

“This is not gridlock so much as a rudderless ship without a captain,” Chris Krueger of Cowen Washington Research Group wrote in a note titled, “Burning down the House: Speaker vote opening act for 2 years of tail risk.”

The senior-most Republican in a committee will lead the committee in the interim if they don’t have a known chair, according to a letter sent last week.

There is little legislating if a bill is amended before it makes its way to the floor for a vote. Republicans may have to wait before they tackle investigations into the administration and family of President Joe Biden.

Outside of the speaker’s role effectively running the House, they are also in the line of succession for president – raising questions about what happens if there’s no one in the position that’s second in line for the presidency after the vice president.

Third in line is the Senate president pro tempore. The first woman to hold the position was Sen. Patty Murray, who was elected on Tuesday.

The Speaker’s Role in House Economy Deceiling Problems: The New York Stock Exchange Trader Says It Is A Disgrace

But the historic dysfunction playing out in Congress this week is a reminder that you should be careful what you wish for. While gridlock might be good for markets and the economy, complete paralysis is bad because, every so often, government needs to get stuff done.

“We’re watching a slow-moving trainwreck collide with a dumpster fire,” Isaac Boltansky, director of policy research at BTIG, told CNN in a phone interview. “This is a clear indication we will have dysfunction for the entirety of this Congress, which heightens the risk around must-act deadlines such as the debt ceiling.”

One New York Stock Exchange trader, a self-described conservative, told CNN on Tuesday the situation in the House is “disturbing” because it suggests lawmakers will struggle to get even more important things done.

“This is a joke. The party can’t get its [stuff] together. The trader requested anonymity to discuss the situation candidly and said it was a disgrace.

The past few days have shown how unattractive the GOP majority in the House is and how it is likely to get worse if Republicans do not coalesce around a speaker.

Given the narrowly divided congress and the skepticism from Republicans about Corporate America, it’s not clear how a debate over debt ceiling will play out this time.

In the past, brinksmanship over the debt ceiling eventually gave way to a compromise, though often not until significant pressure was applied by business leaders, financial markets — or both.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/04/economy/house-speaker-economy-debt-ceiling/index.html

The Frankel-Frankel Stalemate: What Will We Learn from the Prescriptions of a Receding Economy?

“Our concern is that an increasingly populist GOP is less tied to big business influence, while a narrow majority amplifies their influence,” Benjamin Salisbury, director of research at Height Capital Markets, wrote in a note to clients on Wednesday.

Moody’s is worried about whether or not the US economy will fall into a recession and how long the Federal Reserve will keep fighting inflation.

Later this week, on Friday, investors will be laser-focused not on McCarthy’s fate but on the monthly jobs report and what it says about efforts to cool down the labor market.

Andrew Frankel, co-president of Stuart Frankel, dismissed the House speaker race as a “big, fat nothing-burger” for the market and said it was “just noise.”

And yet the stalemate in the House underscores how hard it will be for lawmakers to aggressively respond to a potential recession or another crisis in the next two years.

Although there are reasons to be cautiously optimistic about a soft landing, former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan warns a recession is still the most likely outcome.

Nathaniel P. Banks, the Free Soil Party’s First Choice, and Thomas Balcerski: The Battle of the 1846 Democratic Stalemate

Editor’s Note: Thomas Balcerski is the Ray Allen Billington Visiting Professor of U.S. History at Occidental College and a Long-term Fellow at the Huntington Library, Art Museum and Botanical Gardens. He is the author of “Bosom Friends: The Intimate World of James Buchanan and William Rufus King” (Oxford University Press). He discussed presidential history on his social media account. The opinions expressed in this commentary are his own. CNN has more opinion on it.

The future of slavery was the most divisive issue before the Civil War. In 1849, the Democrats held the plurality of votes in the House, with 113 representatives to the Whigs’ 108. The balance of power was disrupted by members of the anti-slavery Free Soil Party who extended the speaker balloting for 20 days. A plurality rule was adopted by the House to end the stalemate. The pro-Union Democrat was elected speaker after 63 rounds of voting.

In either instance, a compromise of some sort – whether by choosing a new candidate for speaker or by placating the splinter faction in some significant way – has usually been the result. We may once again be living a version of one of these two scenarios, if history is any guide.

The speaker race was faced with its most serious challenge yet. Nathaniel P Banks of Massachusetts was found as a compromise candidate because Democrats and former Whigs weren’t enough to get a majority. Banks, who became speaker after 133 ballots held over two months, defeated Democratic challenger, William Aiken, Jr., of South Carolina, whose backers hoped that a plurality resolution would once again capture the votes of competing factions. Instead, Banks ultimately defeated Aiken on February 2, 1856.

Four years later, the House of Representatives was again divided, with a majority of Republicans looking to place Rep. John Sherman of Ohio in the chair. The Republicans tried to end the debate using the plurality rule. Sherman stepped aside to make room for William Pennington, who was a freshman congressman from New Jersey. After 44 ballots spanning eight weeks, Pennington was elected speaker.

The selection of the party’s first choice candidate was challenged by a group of western Republicans in 1923. The progressives blamed the party’s existing orthodoxy on the results of the 1922 midterm election, in which Republicans had seen their majority reduced, and wanted to change the House’s rules to allow for more legislation to reach the floor.