DeSantis: The Path to a National Majority versus Donald Trump’s: A Key Component for the Midterm Election Roundup
In his speech on Tuesday, the Florida Gov. said to every Republican voter, “My way is the path to a national majority, and Donald Trump’s way is the path to future disappointments and continued suffering.”
DeSantis made a convincing case that he, rather than Trump, gives Republicans the best chance to defeat Biden (or some other Democrat) in 2024. With Trump plotting a reelection campaign announcement soon, DeSantis has a lot to think about and a solid springboard from which to launch a challenge to the former President.
CNN exit polls showed that if Trump won the Republican nomination for a third time, he would be in trouble in the general election, as he has a 37% favorability rating.
My friend Patrick Ruffini of Echelon Insights tweeted a key observation: DeSantis commanded huge support among Latinos in 2022 compared to Trump in 2020.
In 2020, Biden won Osceola County by nearly 14 points. This time, DeSantis secured the county by nearly seven points, marking a whopping 21-point swing.
Source: https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/09/opinions/outcome-us-2022-midterm-election-roundup/index.html
The First Two Years of Governing: What Happened in Pennsylvania, Kentucky, and What We Don’t Know About the Future of American Politics
Scott was once a special assistant to President George W. Bush, and also worked for Sen.Mitch McConnell. He is a partner at RunSwitch Public Relations in Louisville, Kentucky. Follow him on Twitter @ScottJenningsKY.
Democrats should not take this win for granted. The issues voters raised – inflation, crime – are real concerns. And the reasons many voters turned out – abortion rights, democratic norms – remain under threat.
What a relief. It finally feels like a majority of voters want to re-center American politics away from the toxic, conspiracy theory-driven rhetoric we’ve experienced over the past several years.
Yes, Republicans are projected to retain control of the House of Representatives with a narrow ( and narrowing) majority, will that make a difference? Despite the advantage Democrats had in the chamber the past two years, President Joe Biden has still had to battle and compromise to get parts of his agenda passed. How the balance of power will settle in the Senate is unclear, with a few races in key states still undecided as of this afternoon. The upcoming election in Georgia will be crucial and will decide the outcome of the race between the incumbent Democrat Raphael Walcott and his Republican opponent Herschel Walker.
There were positive signs coming out of the election. Philadelphia and the surrounding suburbs rejected the Trump-backed transplant Dr. Mehmet Oz and helped to send John Fetterman to the US Senate. Pennsylvania voters also rejected an election denier, Doug Mastriano, in the race for state governor, and made history by electing Democrat Summer Lee as the state’s first Black woman to serve in Congress.
Maryland voters, meanwhile, elected Democrat Wes Moore as their state’s first Black governor. Massachusetts became the first state to have a female governor. She is the first lesbian to win a state governorship in the US.
Voters abolished slavery in four states and also permanently erased “involuntary servitude” in others. Louisiana’s constitution did not mention the slavery clause.
In Alabama, voters have approved a proposal requiring any changes to the state’s election laws to take effect six months prior to a general election. And, in Kentucky, voters narrowly beat back an amendment that would have removed constitutional protections for abortion rights – one of several instances in which voters refused to accept restrictive reproductive rights measures.
It was especially encouraging to see voters of younger generations turn out in droves. John Della Volpe, the pollster for the Institute of Politics at the Kennedy School, told me that this was the third straight national election – 2018, 2020 and now 2022 – in which the youth vote has surged. And their votes mattered: Drawing upon exit polls, Volpe estimates that voters over 40 were likely to vote for Republican candidates while voters under 40 went for Democrats – and those under 40 were the determining factor.
Source: https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/09/opinions/outcome-us-2022-midterm-election-roundup/index.html
Outcome us-2022 Midterm Election Roundup: Donald Trump’s One-term President and His Oasis With Fox News
Roxanne Jones was a founding editor of The Magazine and former vice president at the now-shuttered ESPN. Since retiring from Disney, she has been a producer, reporter and editor at the New York Daily News. Jones is co-author of “Say it Loud: An Illustrated History of the Black Athlete.” She talks politics on Philadelphia’s 900AM WURD.
Voters made Tuesday a bad night for former President Donald Trump. Despite his efforts, many of his favorites not only lost but denied the GOP the usual out-party wave of wins that come in midterm elections. The challenge is to decide on what to do next.
In the short term, the man who so often returns to his well-worn playbook resumed his years-long effort to ruin Americans’ confidence in any election his team loses. “Protest, protest, protest,” he told his followers, even before all the polls closed. In a sign of his declining power, no mass protests ensued.
False claims of election fraud will probably be a main theme if he goes through with his plans to run for president again.
Now the main question is: to run or not to run. It is not an easy choice. Trump could end up like other one-term presidents he has mocked, George H.W. Bush and Jimmy Carter, who retreated from politics and devoted themselves to new interests. He has other options. Or he could return to his businesses and resume his television career. Or, he could take on the role of leader of an organization that could give him a platform for grabbing attention, while leaving him plenty of time for golf.
Running could forestall the various legal problems he faces, but he has lawyers who might accomplish the same goal. Fox News is not likely to pay enough to have his businesses monitored by a court-appointed overseer. He will have easy work, pontificating, and raising funds combined with his favorite pastimes: fame, money, and fun. What’s not to like?
Source: https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/09/opinions/outcome-us-2022-midterm-election-roundup/index.html
The High Crimes: The Corruption, Impunity, and Impeachment of Donald D’Antonio during the 2005 Midterm Election
The co-author of the book “High Crimes: The Corruption, Impunity, and Impeachment of Donald Trump” is Michael D’Antonio.
This was also an election that will be remembered as a huge surprise. Give credit where it is due – President Joe Biden pulled it off even though his approval ratings were fairly abysmal. Now the question is whether he can translate his success (and that of other Democrats) into greater progress in governing. Knowing how recalcitrant his opponents can be, he was smart to reach out to Republican leaders within hours.
Bottom line: Tough days still lie ahead, but for one of the first times in recent memory, Americans can breathe a sigh of relief that there are still people in the public arena hungry to bring us together again.
David Gergen is a senior political analyst at CNN and has served as White House adviser to four presidents. A graduate of Harvard Law School, he is a professor of public service at the Harvard Kennedy School and co-founded its Center for Public Leadership.
Source: https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/09/opinions/outcome-us-2022-midterm-election-roundup/index.html
The New Yorkers are Better than Critics: Standing Up against the Tyranny of Anti-Democratic Candidates (and Getting Closer to the Truth)
The issue of abortion was a big point of contention during the campaign for governor. Pro-Whitmer groups consistently highlighted Dixon’s support of a near-total abortion ban and her past comments that having a rapist’s baby could help a victim heal. It’s due to backlash against extreme positions on the issue that there was a resounding victory for Whitmer in Michigan.
The National Rifle Association endorsed Zeldin when he was in Congress. He voted to deny certifying the 2020 election in Congress after texting his former White House chief of staff to plan to contest the election before it was over.
The polls weren’t perfect. It turns out that New Yorkers are, in fact, New Yorkers: Not cowed by overblown claims of crime (while I think crime is indeed a problem Democrats should address, New York City remains one of the safest places in the country); determined to defend the racial, ethnic and sexual diversity that makes our state great; and committed to standing up against the tyranny of an anti-democratic party that would force women into pregnancy and childbirth.
Hochul is going to address voter concerns while standing up for New York values: openness, decency, freedom for all. The majority of New Yorkers cast their votes from a place of hope and optimism, even if they did vote from a place of fear. The people voted for what they want. And we now want our governor to deliver.
Source: https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/09/opinions/outcome-us-2022-midterm-election-roundup/index.html
Outcome of a Red State: Alabama Democrat Cheri Beasley vs. Sen. Ted Budd in a Midterm Election Roundup
The author of “Ok Boomer, Let’s talk: How My Generation Got Left Behind” is a journalist based in New York. Follow her on Twitter.
The two candidates were vying for the seat being vacated by retiring Republican Sen. Richard Burr. Despite being seen as a red state, North Carolina has elected Democrats to five of the last six governors and two of the last six senators.
In the waning weeks of the race, multiple polls had the candidates – Democratic former state Supreme Court chief justice Cheri Beasley and Republican US House Rep. Ted Budd – separated by a percentage point or less.
The issue of crime was the biggest issue in North Carolina’s Senate campaign, with Budd claiming that the situation had changed so much that it had made it more dangerous to walk the streets. That talking point, along with his focus on inflation, appeared to help propel him to victory in Tuesday’s vote.
Beasley, by contrast, focused much of her attention on abortion, making it a central plank of her campaign that she would stand up not just for women’s reproductive rights, but workplace protections and equal pay.
Former President Barack Obama won the state in 2008 but lost it in 2012 by one of the closest margins in the nation. And while Donald Trump won the state in 2016 and 2020, he never received 50% of the vote.
Source: https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/09/opinions/outcome-us-2022-midterm-election-roundup/index.html
How Val Demings, Cheri Beasley and Rachel Abrams, a Black Woman, and the Dark Side of the Philadelphia Midterm Election Day Challenge
Heye was the deputy chief of staff to the former House majority leader, Eric Cantor. You can follow him on a social networking site.
Many of us suspected that Democratic Florida Congresswoman and former House impeachment manager Val Demings would have an uphill battle unseating incumbent Sen. Marco Rubio, and weren’t entirely surprised when she lost the race. With 98% of the vote counted, Rubio won easily, garnering 57.8% of the vote to Demings’ 41.1%.
Black women running statewide had a difficult night on Tuesday. Judge Cheri Beasley narrowly lost her bid for the Senate in North Carolina.
Abrams, meanwhile, just didn’t have the same support and enthusiasm this time around for her candidacy. For her to lose by such a big margin says much more.
Had Abrams succeeded, she would have been the first Black woman to become the governor of a US state. America is waiting for a breakthrough after two straight electoral losses.
It’s hard for a Democrat to win statewide in the deep South. And as Demings, Beasley and Abrams have shown, it’s particularly tough for a Black woman to win statewide in the region: In fact, it’s never been done.
At the end of the day however, these three women have nothing to regret. They did great things, and created great future platforms for themselves. They put one more crack into the glass ceiling facing the candidates for US Senate and governors mansions.
That was a big red flag for me, and it showed how much gender and race still play in the minds of male voters and power brokers of my generation and older. Black women are saddled with both race and gender. It is the nagging story of our lives.
Reflections on the morning after Election Day can be a little fuzzy: Chalk it up to a late night, incomplete data and a still-forming narrative. Still, as a longtime Pennsylvania election-watcher, I see three clear takeaways:
On Nov. 8, Pennsylvanians clearly rejected the worst of right wing extremists and sent a message thatDonald Trump does not guarantee victory in the state.
The state that delivered a double-digit victory to the establishment Democrat was once again won by the center-right and center- left candidates like my father Gov. Dick Thornburgh.
2) “You’re not from here and I am” and “Stick it to the man” proved to be sufficiently powerful messages for alt-Democrat John Fetterman to win his Senate race, albeit by a much smaller margin.
The two simple themes talked to the quirky, stubborn authenticity that is a longstanding strand of Pennsylvania’s political heritage.
Independent voters made a large difference in the home of Independence Hall. Since the beginning of the marquee races, polls have consistently shown that the two party candidates have the same level of support among their own party members.
Most polls show that Fetterman has a huge lead over Shapiro among independent voters. They may not have been the same independent voters: Shapiro’s indy supporters could be former GOP voters disaffected by Trump, and Fetterman’s indy squad could be young voters mobilized by the abortion rights issue (about half of young voters are independents nationally).
With Florida ripening to a deeper and Deeper Red, Pennsylvania may loom larger and larger as the most consequential swing state in the country, meaning that we are likely to watch closely as we move inexorably to 2024.
Source: https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/09/opinions/outcome-us-2022-midterm-election-roundup/index.html
Tim Ryan, the Buckeye State Rep. Tim Thornburgh, and the Voting Campaign of J.D. Vance: An Empirical View of the Ohio Quintessential Swing State
David Thornburgh is a longtime Pennsylvania civic leader. He was the CEO of the Committee of Seventy, and now chairs the initiative to repeal closed primaries. Dick Thornburgh was once the GOP governor and US Attorney General.
The line of students registering to vote on Election Day stretched across the University of Michigan campus, with students waiting for over four hours. There was a palpable sense of excitement and urgency around the election on campus. For many young people, especially young women, there was one motivating issue that drove their participation: abortion rights.
Though the courts have prevented that old law from taking effect, voters were eager to enshrine reproductive rights in the state constitution, and overwhelmingly voted in favor of Prop 3 with over 55% of voters approving the proposal. This is a major feat given the coordinated campaign against the proposal. Both pro-life groups and the Catholic Church strongly opposed it, and many ads claimed it was “too confusing and too extreme.”
Isabelle Schindler is a senior at the University of Michigan’s Ford School of Public Policy. She is a field director for College Democrats on her campus and has worked as a UMICH Votes Fellow to promote voting.
From the beginning, the US Senate race in Ohio wasn’t expected to be close. It wasn’t, it was with author and political newcomer J.D. Vance defeating Rep. Tim Ryan by over six percentage points.
It is now safe to say that Ohio, for so long the quintessential swing state, is a Republican state. White, working-class voters have become part of the Republican coalition in the Buckeye State. In 2016, then-Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump convinced these voters that the Democratic Party had abandoned them to progressive and internationalist interests with values they did not share. This shift was seen in Northeast Ohio, where voters abandoned the Democratic party in favor of the GOP.
In the future, whether the Republicans could still keep these voters if Trump didn’t win the election. The Democrats recruited Rep. Tim Ryan to run for the Senate because he was from Northeast Ohio, having grown up just north of Youngstown. They hoped that he could win those working-class voters back, and Ryan designed his campaign around working-class economic interests, distancing himself from Washington, DC, Democrats and even opposing President Joe Biden’s student loan forgiveness program. Ryan did slightly better in Northeast Ohio than Biden did. The place where he grew up lost its voters in Washington, as well as the place he represented there for two decades.
The Democratic Senate seat held by Brown will be on the ballot in two years, and that will be a test for Ohio Democrats. The Republicans will be able to get a good candidate to run for the seat that they currently hold since it leans Republican.
Source: https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/09/opinions/outcome-us-2022-midterm-election-roundup/index.html
Outcomes of the 2020 Midterm Election Roundup: The Case of Dr. Oz, Doug Mastriano and Rep. Scott Perry
Paul Sracic is the co-author of “Ohio Politics and Government” (Congressional Quarterly Press, 2015). Follow him on Twitter at @pasracic.
Trump proved to be a two-time loser in the commonwealth this election cycle, despite stirring up his base with screaming rallies for Republican candidates Dr. Mehmet Oz, Doug Mastriano and Rep. Scott Perry.
Oprah endorsed John Fetterman, Dr. Oz couldn’t shake the baggage of his carpetbagger, and Trump may have lost more of his supporters to Fetterman than to Oz.
There is going to be a serious soul-searching among Republican leadership in Pennsylvania. What could have they been thinking to place all their marbles on someone so outside of the mainstream as Mastriano? Did they think Pennsylvanians wouldn’t check Oz’s address? Will they rethink their hardline stance on abortion?
After the party preferred candidate withdrew from the race, Shamaine Daniels made a last-ditch effort to oust the GOP congressman. Her lack of experience on the state or national stage made it hard to establish a base of her own. The incumbent will return to Washington with a clipped wing for his role in efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election.
Joyce M. Davis is an opinion editor at PennLive and The Patriot- News. She is a veteran journalist and author who has worked on numerous stories around the globe, including for National Public Radio and Knight Ridder Newspapers.
Source: https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/09/opinions/outcome-us-2022-midterm-election-roundup/index.html
The Peach State Warnock versus Biden: A Midterm Election Roundup of Georgia Politics and Public Policy Focused on Civil Rights and Political Science
In the last two years, President Joe Biden, Sen. Jon Ossoff and Sen. Raphael Warnock, all Democrats, won in the Peach State. There has been a raging debate in Georgia political circles since then as to whether these races signal a long-term left turn toward the Democratic Party, caused by shifting demographics, or whether they were merely a negative reaction to former President Donald Trump. The results on Tuesday pointed to the latter.
Georgia requires candidates to win over 50% of the vote and the presence of a Libertarian on the ticket has thrown the heated race between Warnock, the incumbent senator and senior pastor of Ebenezer Baptist Church in Atlanta, and Georgia football great Herschel Walker into an overtime runoff campaign to be decided on December 6.
Warnock has faced his challenge by emphasizing his willingness to work across the aisle on some issues and occasionally disagreeing with the President on others. Many Georgians feel good about the former college football star who is backed by Trump.
Both of these strategies were strong enough to get them into a runoff, but which strategy will work in that arena? The answer could be crucial to determining which party controls the US Senate, depending on the result of other races that have yet to be called. Stay tuned while Georgians enjoy having the two candidates for Thanksgiving dinner and into the holiday season.
Edward Lindsey was the majority whip in the Georgia House of Representatives. In Atlanta, he focuses on public policy and political law.
Source: https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/09/opinions/outcome-us-2022-midterm-election-roundup/index.html
Taking the Heat off of the Anti-China Rhetorics: The Case for an Outcome Us 2022 Midterm Election Roundup
The approach was most evident in his ads. In a campaign spot in which he is shown tossing a football at various computer screens showing messages he disapproves of, he hurls the ball at one emblazoned with the words “Defund the Police” and dismisses what he disdainfully calls “the culture wars.”
Ryan hitting his mark at target practice was shown in an advertisement that said “Not too bad for a Democrat.” To imply you’re pro-gun rights when majority of Americans support gun control legislation – and when your party explicitly embraces a pro-gun control stance is bewildering. Ryan’s ads on the economy began to parrot the anti-China rhetoric taken up by Republicans. Ryan was opposed to the move by President Joe Biden to announce his student debt plan in an effort to bring economic relief to millions of young people.
While living in a metropolitan area, I would have been interested in seeing him reach out to communities of color, for example by making an appearance with African American members of the Ohio congressional delegation. One ad focused on the social concerns of people who aren’t in the Rust Belt would be ideal.
There is an assistant professor at a university who teaches about American political behavior. Her research focuses on the behavior of racial and ethnic minorities. She tweets at @Mack_Musings.
Source: https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/09/opinions/outcome-us-2022-midterm-election-roundup/index.html
Tony Evers, Ron Johnson and the Wisconsin Legislature: Why Do We Care About the Laws and the Workplace? And What Did Michels Tell Us About Wisconsin?
Wisconsin remains as split as ever with Democratic Gov. Tony Evers surviving a challenge from businessman Tim Michels and Republican Sen. Ron Johnson barely holding off a challenge from Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes.
In late February, Johnson, who Democrats hoped might be a beatable incumbent, was viewed favorably by only 33% of Wisconsin’s voters, according to the Marquette University Law School poll. He was viewed unfavorably by 45% of the electorate with 21% saying they didn’t know what to think of him or hadn’t heard enough about him. He finished the election cycle still seen unfavorably by 46% with 43% of the voters holding a favorable view of him.
In 1849, the abortion ban inWisconsin went back into effect after the Wade decision. Michels supported the no-exceptions law but then flip-flopped and said he could support exceptions for rape and incest. Johnson succeeded in skirting the issue by saying he wanted the abortion law to go to referendum.
Another issue that may have soured women voters on Michels was the allegation of a culture of sexual harassment within his company. Evers’ campaign unsurprisingly jumped at the opportunity to argue that “the culture comes from the top.” The training and culture at the company are not reflected in the allegations. The harassment in the workplace should not have been condoned by the leadership of the company. Michels’ divisive primary fight against former Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch also didn’t help his appeal to women voters, especially in Kleefisch’s home county of Waukesha, formerly a key to a Republican victory in Wisconsin.
James Wigderson is the former editor of RightWisconsin.com, a conservative-leaning news website, and the author of a twice-weekly newsletter, “Life, Under Construction.”
The Democratic Candidate for the Virginia House of Representatives to replace Rep. Donald McEachin with Jennifer McClellan in a Firehouse Primary
Donald McEachin died in November just weeks after winning his reelection and Virginia Democrats are poised to pick a nominee for the special election.
As many candidates and voters as possible can participate in the democratic process through a firehouse primary. A smooth, transparent and expedient process has been established by the Fourth Congressional District Democratic Committee.
The balance of power in the US House won’t be affected by the outcome of the election, as the nominee will enter February as the favorite in a reliably Democratic district.
Jennifer McClellan has won the Democratic nomination for Virginia’s 4th Congressional District in the special election to succeed the late Rep. Donald McEachin, the commonwealth’s Democratic Party announced early Thursday morning in a news release, putting her in prime position to become the first Black woman to represent the Old Dominion in Congress.
Virginia Sen. Tim Kaine campaigned with McClellan, a close ally whose wedding he officiated, over the weekend and members of the Commonwealth’s Democratic congressional delegation have all endorsed her, as have Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney and other local officials. Democrats will not know their nominee until Wednesday, at the earliest, when the counting of ballots begins.
The Campaign for a Democratic Candidate: Joe McClellan, a Worker Bee, and a Daughter of the Labor Era
The coalescing around McClellan was influenced in part by the campaign of scandal-plagued state Sen. Joe Morrissey. His feuds with the party establishment may be part of his appeal among some disenchanted partisans, but his critics point to a more damaging history, including his resignation from the state House in 2014 after a misdemeanor conviction for contributing to the delinquency of a minor – a 17-year-old part-time staffer at his law office with whom he had sex and exchanged nude photos. He was in his mid-50s at the time, but has argued, according to a local report, that he believed the woman was 18. Morrissey has since married a woman and they have several children. Morrissey has also been stripped of his law license – twice – and remains disbarred following a 2019 state Supreme Court decision to uphold its revocation.
The state party held the primary on a Tuesday instead of a Saturday, and that would affect voter turnout, according to Morrissey. In announcing his campaign, Morrissey called himself a worker bee and highlighted his work on criminal justice reform.
If any voter in the district signs a pledge to support the Democratic nominee in the general election, the primary will be open to them. Leon Benjamin was chosen by the Republicans in a weekend vote.
Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin last Monday set the date of the special election for February 21, creating a quick turnaround as the parties need to formally select their candidates by December 23.
A large number of Democrats leaped into the race with just a week to campaign. McClellan and Morrissey are leading candidates because state Del. Bagby dropped out of the race to clear the way for McClellan. Bagby’s support largely shifted to McClellan.
In her announcement speech last week, McClellan spoke about her work in the capitol and her experience in the legislature.
McClellan said that he mourns a friend but hears the call to continue his legacy and serve Washington.
Benjamin, the Navy Veteran, and the Republican Presidential Nominee: The Case of the 2000 U.S. Senate Reionization Roundtable
Benjamin, a Navy veteran and pastor, won the GOP nomination at a party canvass on Saturday. He lost to McEachin last month and in 2020.