Nikki Haley, aka Joe Biden, is not the most popular Republican in New Hampshire, but the only one who can beat Trump
The race is over, he said. “I mean, even if Nikki Haley can win in New Hampshire, she’ll still have a real uphill slog. And she’ll have to win, absolutely have to win her home state of South Carolina at the end of February.”
According to Ben Ginsberg, a retired Republican attorney, the deck is already stacked against her if she fails to win New Hampshire.
“A poll came out today that said Trump was down 7 points, so I stopped and started to clap,” she said as the crowd began to applaud. She needed to clarify. “Well, this is against Joe Biden, by the way. Trump is down by 7 points. I beat Biden.
“Do you want to be scared in November or not?” she asks in a call and response near the end of her stump speech. Do you want your children to be proud in November? Then let’s do it.”
Haley is imploring voters to give her a chance to prevent a Biden-Trump repeat, as she closes her campaign in New Hampshire.
The top spender has been Haley and groups supporting her. Team Haley has poured in $30.9 million, almost doubling Trump and his allies, who have spent $15.7 million. After second placing in Iowa, Team DeSantis didn’t spend any money and the super PAC supporting them invested only $8 million in New Hampshire.
“And now we have a chance to reset the election for our entire country,” he says. “The only one who can beat Donald Trump isNikki.”
He said, “If enough Republicans and independents get a sense of sanity back and are less interested in drama and more interested in being nice to each other, then we’ll be able to form a government.” We’re not happy about it. And that’s what Nikki Haley would take away from where we are today.”
The former South Carolina governor said at a few days ago at Grill 603 that she is the most popular Republican in the race.
She talked about a hypothetical general election result but not the primary, which is what she was referring to. There are no public polls showing her ahead of Trump in New Hampshire. At multiple daily events in the lead up to the primary, Haley has tried to connect one on one with potential supporters, including 10-year-old Hadley Craig.
I have told you from the beginning that I wanted to be strong in Iowa. When asked about the path to victory, Haley snapped back at the reporters, “I feel like we did that.”
It was the other way around in 2008. Hillary Clinton got choked up during an event answering a question from a voter. That gained lots of attention and may have actually turned around her fortunes in the Granite State.
History of the Primal Election in New Hampshire during the 1920s and 1960s: a story of Muskie, Nixon, Eisenhower, Truman, and the Brookings Institution
“It changed people’s minds about me, of what kind of guy I was,” Muskie said of the moment. “They were looking for a strong, steady man, and here I was, weak.”
There are a couple of examples that stand out. A hoax letter was planted by Richard Nixon’s campaign. It falsely accused a leading Democratic candidate, Edmund Muskie, of using an ethnic slur that led Muskie to (maybe) cry in a public outburst, while also defending his wife, whom a local newspaper accused of liking “to tell dirty jokes and smoke cigarettes.”
The primary election for the presidential nomination will be held on the second Tuesday in March, or before the date on which any other state will hold a similar election, and will be done by the secretary of state.
New Hampshire became the first primary in 1920 after Minnesota dropped its primary, and Indiana moved to May. It only voted for delegates to the national convention for who they wanted to be president, not directly for who they wanted to be president, as The Brookings Institution pointed out in this history of the primary in 2016:
That had an effect on both the GOP and Democratic politics. Democrats made changes in order to make the process more open. More states gained influence, and New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation status was threatened.
In 1968, during the Vietnam War, President Lyndon Johnson’s narrow win over Eugene McCarthy was an early barometer of his unpopularity with his party. LBJ decided against running. McCarthy was popular with the Democrats, but they didn’t like him at the 1968 convention. The party selected Hubert Humphrey as its nominee, and that inflamed an already volatiles situation in Chicago outside the convention hall between police and protesters.
It had an almost immediate impact. Truman lost the New Hampshire primary in 1952 because of his unpopularity, with the Korean War continuing. He decided not to run for reelection. For Republicans that year, Dwight Eisenhower won and became the party nominee over Robert Taft, who had been seen as the party establishment’s choice.
It’s why former New Hampshire Gov. John Sununu used to say that New Hampshire picks presidents and that Iowa picks corn.
The campaigns of candidates thought to be finished in the primary have been resurrected. John McCain, who was running out of money and trailing in the polls, went on to the Republican nomination after doing a lot of town halls in New Hampshire.
A second-place finish in 1992 earned Bill Clinton a “Comeback Kid” nickname, and he won the nomination. Clinton’s wife, Hillary Clinton, was behind Barack Obama in the polls after the Iowa win. But Hillary Clinton pulled out the victory in New Hampshire. She did not get the nomination but her New Hampshire victory gave new life to her campaign and led to a long, drawn-out primary fight.
This is maybe the biggest difference from the Iowa caucuses. New Hampshire allows independent voters to cast ballots in either the Republican or Democratic primary, unlike other states, which only allow party-run caucuses.
In addition to being generally a more moderate, suburban and less religious set of Republican voters than in Iowa, undeclared voters make up almost 40% of the state’s registered voters.
Even though most of the coverage has centered around the leading Republican candidates, there will be two dozen names that New Hampshire voters will see, including candidates who have already dropped out of the race. Here is a sample ballot.
21 people, including Paperboy Love Prince, Vermin Supreme, and Rep. DeanPhillips, D-Minn., are Democrats. Who it won’t include is President Biden.
South Carolina propelled Biden to the 2020 nomination, and therefore New Hampshire’s primary won’t be counted in this year’s Democratic primary.
There is, however, an active write-in campaign for Biden, which the party establishment has to hope wins. Otherwise, it would be a major black eye for the president.
Source: 10 questions about the New Hampshire primary, including, ‘Can anyone beat Trump?’
New Hampshire’s Big Foot: Predicting the Republican Primary at Midnight with a Record Turnout of 282,979 in 2016
Phillips, a wealthy former co-owner of Talenti Gelato, and a group supporting him have spent $5 million in ads in New Hampshire, including one employing Big Foot, or at least a man in a Big Foot outfit … or is it?
A record turnout for the GOP primary is predicted by the Secretary of State. The Republican turnout record is 282,979 set in 2016. New Hampshire traditionally has been one of the states with the highest participation rates in the country.
The most famous example of this is Dixville Notch, which gained notoriety because it had predicted the eventual Republican nominee in every election from 1968 to 2012. That was broken in 2016 when it sided with former Ohio Gov. John Kasich over Trump. The town is 20 miles from the Canadian border and has a population of 5. The vote in 2016 for Kasich was 3-2.
Some of the smallest towns in the state have found a way to get attention by starting voting at midnight, due to the fact that they have the flexibility to open and close differently.
All polling places must be open from at least 11 a.m. until 7 p.m. ET at a minimum, according to the Secretary of State’s office. Some polling locations have earlier hours or extend theirs, but all polls will be closed by 8:00 p.m. ET. (You can find hours for each polling location here.)
Source: 10 questions about the New Hampshire primary, including, ‘Can anyone beat Trump?’
The Republican Party in New Hampshire: a Case Study of Trump’s General-Electorate Problems and the Nomination of Donald Trump
The survey highlighted Trump’s general- election problems. More than two-thirds of New Hampshire’s electorate, including Democrats and independents, thought he should not have immunity.
While New Hampshire certainly features a more moderate electorate than Iowa, there may be a ceiling to Haley’s potential support. In New Hampshire, there have been surprises so far that have changed the course of presidential elections.
Almost the entire Republican Party believes Trump will now be the nominee again and is rallying around him, excluding a minority of ex-candidates and his former U.N. ambassador, Nikki Haley.
Former President Donald Trump won the Iowa caucuses in a blowout last week, confirming his dominance with conservatives. Candidate dropped out and support for the president was endorsed by the Florida governor.
The caucus will be used to determine the party’s delegates. Trump will be on that ballot, but Haley won’t. Haley will be on the ballot, but Trump won’t.
On Feb. 24 it’s South Carolina. In comparison to Iowa and New Hampshire, there have been less than $10 million in ads run there.
If that happens, Trump could win the nomination by the end of March. As the song states, it will be, for anyone not named Trump, all over but the crying.