What’s up for grabs when you can’t vote for a candidate? Nikki Haley, the only candidate that can beat Trump
It’s up for grabs and your candidate abandoned you just a day before you were to vote for Christie. What is their willingness to give up? And if they settle, I suspect they’re going to be settling for Nikki Haley because they can live with her. If they cast a vote for someone who isn’t as anti-Trump as they would like, it will be the only chance they have to beat Trump.
The New Hampshire primary will likely be the last chance for Haley to show she can beat Trump, because the state has a moderate voter profile.
Coaston: In September you wrote, “It’s exceedingly difficult to find a campaign here trying to build something that connects with citizens, that makes its presence known in communities.” Does that end up being the case in New Hampshire? How has the primary system changed over the past few decades? I know those are two questions, but just kind of wanted your take about that.
Scala: I would say, OK, since I wrote that of the campaigns out there, I think Haley was trying to make the most strides in building local organization. I did see a couple of Trump canvassers this week. I guess the difference between Haley and, say, campaigns of bygone years is building that local organization would’ve started months earlier than it did this time around.
It was only a matter of time before Haley won New Hampshire and then took the momentum from her second place finish in Iowa into her home state of South Carolina.
Even if winning New Hampshire weren’t a reach, Ben Ginsberg, a retired Republican attorney who is a leading expert on the nominating process, says the deck is already stacked against her.
“It seems like it’s going down party lines if it’s gonna be Biden or Trump,” she said. “And I don’t think anyone feels that great about those choices. But this is what we got. Maybe not.
“Do you want to be scared in November or not?” she asks in a call and response near the end of her stump speech. “Do you want your kids to be proud in November or not? “Then let’s do it.”
What does Nikki Haley want to see in the November primary? “What are we doing now to move America forward, and what can we do about it?”
Since the beginning of last year, $77.5 million has been spent on campaign ads targeting the state in the GOP primary, according to data compiled by the ad-tracking firm AdImpact and analyzed by NPR, as of Sunday afternoon. More than $10 million of that has come in just the past week — all for a state that allocates 22 delegates, or less than 1% of the total.
He says that now they have a chance to change the outcome of the election. “Nikki is the only one who can beat Donald Trump to move America forward.”
That is, he said, “If enough Republicans and independents get a sense of sanity back and are less interested in drama and just pettiness. We’re tired of being treated badly. That is what Haley would take from where we are today.
In New Hampshire, he withstood an aggressive challenge from his former United Nations ambassador, Nikki Haley, who is the final major Republican candidate standing in Trump’s way after other hopefuls dropped out.
A couple of days earlier at Grill 603 in Milford, N.H., the former South Carolina governor delivered her now-familiar pitch that she is the most electable Republican in the race.
It’s not clear which poll she was referring to, though she was talking about a hypothetical general election result and not the primary. There aren’t any public polls showing her ahead of Trump in New Hampshire. At multiple daily events in the lead up to the primary, Haley has tried to connect one on one with potential supporters, including 10-year-old Hadley Craig.
But instead, she finished third in Iowa and immediately started lowering expectations for New Hampshire. As she sprinted from diner meet-and-greets to hotel ballroom rallies, Haley never predicted a win in New Hampshire, instead saying she hoped for a “stronger” finish in the state.
It was the other way around in 2008. Hillary Clinton became emotional while answering a question from a voter. That gained lots of attention and may have actually turned around her fortunes in the Granite State.
The Story of Muskie: How the First Electoral Election Changed New Hampshire and What Other States Decided Not to Vote
“It changed people’s minds about me, of what kind of guy I was,” Muskie said of the moment. “They were looking for a strong, steady man, and here I was, weak.”
A couple of examples stand out. The letter was a hoax and was planted by the Nixon campaign. It falsely accused a leading Democratic candidate, Edmund Muskie, of using an ethnic slur that led Muskie to (maybe) cry in a public outburst, while also defending his wife, whom a local newspaper accused of liking “to tell dirty jokes and smoke cigarettes.”
The presidential primary will be held on the second Tuesday in March, immediately preceding the date on which any other state shall hold a similar election.
New Hampshire became the first primary after Minnesota and Indiana moved to May. But until 1948, it only voted for delegates to the national convention, not directly for who people wanted to be president, as The Brookings Institution noted in this history of the primary in 2016:
That had an effect on both the Democrats and the Republicans. Democrats made changes that made the primary process more open. New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation status was threatened due to the influence of more states.
In 1968, during the Vietnam War, President Lyndon Johnson’s narrow win over Eugene McCarthy was an early barometer of his unpopularity with his party. LBJ decided against running. McCarthy was endorsed by the anti-war Democrats but snubbed at the convention. The party chose Humphrey as a nominee and that caused police to clash with protesters at the convention hall.
It had an almost immediate impact. Truman was unpopular in 1952 and lost the New Hampshire primary as the Korean War continued. He decided against running for reelection. Eisenhower won the Republican nomination for president in 1964 over Robert Taft, who had been seen as theparty establishment’s choice.
John Sununu used to say that New Hampshire picked presidents and that Iowa picked corn.
It has resurrected the campaigns of candidates thought to be finished in the primary, or solidified a candidate’s position. In 2008, Republican John McCain, who had run out of money and was trailing in the polls, did more town halls in New Hampshire than anyone, won there and went on to the Republican nomination.
Bill Clinton’s closer-than-expected second-place finish in 1992 led to him being labeled the “Comeback Kid,” and he won the nomination. Hillary Clinton was lagging behind Barack Obama in the polls after his win in Iowa. Hillary Clinton won the election in New Hampshire. While she didn’t win the nomination, her New Hampshire win gave new life to her campaign and led to the long, drawn-out primary fight that ensued.
This is maybe the biggest difference from the Iowa caucuses. Not only is this a state-run primary, rather than party-run caucuses, New Hampshire also allows independents, or undeclared voters, to cast a ballot in either the Republican or Democratic primary.
A more moderate set of Republican voters, as well as less religious voters, make up the majority of the state’s registered voters.
For Democrats, it’s a similar number — 21 people, including the likes of Paperboy Love Prince, Vermin Supreme, self-help author Marianne Williamson and Rep. Dean Phillips, D-Minn. President Biden won’t be included.
There is, however, an active write-in campaign for Biden, which the party establishment has to hope wins. It would be a serious dark eye for the president.
Source: 10 questions about the New Hampshire primary, including, ‘Can anyone beat Trump?’
New Hampshire Primaries: Ten Questions About The Primary, including, ‘Can anyone beat Trump?’ (with links from Talenti Gelato and Dixville Notch)
In New Hampshire, a group supporting a wealthy former co-owner of Talenti Gelato spent $5 million on ads that featured one with a man wearing a Big Foot outfit.
Secretary of State David Scanlan predicted a record turnout for the GOP primary. The Republican turnout in 2016 was 282,979. New Hampshire has the highest participation rates in the country.
The most famous example of this is Dixville Notch, which gained notoriety because it had predicted the eventual Republican nominee in every election from 1968 to 2012. That was broken in 2016 when it sided with former Ohio Gov. John Kasich over Trump. It is only 20 miles from the Canadian border that the town has a population. The vote in 2016 for Kasich was 3-2.
Some towns in the state use their opening and closing times to gain attention by voting early, because they have flexibility in their opening and closing times.
All polling places are required to be open for a minimum of seven hours. All polling locations will close at 8:00 pm and some have earlier hours. (You can find hours for each polling location here.)
Source: 10 questions about the New Hampshire primary, including, ‘Can anyone beat Trump?’
The Nomination and the Nomination Problems of President Donald Trump: New Hampshire, Iowa, South Carolina, and Washington, D.C.
The survey showed potential general- election problems for Trump. The majority of the broader New Hampshire electorate feel that he shouldn’t have immunity.
The entire Republican Party believes that Trump will be the nominee once again, despite some ex-candidates and his former United Nations ambassador, who are not in the party.
Former President Donald Trump won the Iowa caucuses in a blowout last week, confirming his dominance with conservatives. The endorsed candidates include Florida’s Gov. Ron DeSantis on Sunday.
The party will award its delegates based on the caucus. Trump will be on that ballot, but Haley won’t. Haley’s name will be on the ballot, but Trump won’t.
After that, it’s South Carolina on Feb. 24. While New Hampshire and Iowa have seen millions of dollars in ads run, there has been less than $9 million devoted to that state.
If that happens it could mean Trump wraps up the nomination by late March. And then it will be, for anyone not named Trump, as the song goes, all over but the crying.
Mr. Sununu’s full plan is to return to the private sector after Mr. Trump leaves office. He doesn’t seem prepared for a full vanishing act.
What Do The Media Tell Us About McCain and His Occasions for a Major League Candidate in New Hampshire? A Conversation with Murphy in the New York Times
“I like this media stuff,” he said in his interview with The New York Times, which was sandwiched among an appearance on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” a podcast hit and a Bloomberg interview in the span of 90 minutes. “I have my quiet criticisms on the media and I’ve gotten to see how they do it, what they do, how they work. Some things I like. Some things are not. So I thought, oh, maybe I could add a little bit of color to what the media is currently doing and maybe enhance that game.”
“He took her from Triple-A to major-league three or four weeks ago when he endorsed,” said Mike Murphy, a Republican strategist who has run many primary campaigns through New Hampshire, including former Senator John McCain’s bid in 2000. He will leave office as a successful multi-term governor. You’ll have a lot of New Hampshire offers. They wanted him for the Senate last time. They have the opportunity to want him again.
Thomas D. Rath, a former state attorney general, said it was similar to fantasy football. I think that part of him wanted to try the bigger game, but that was before he realized that it wouldn’t work. So this is probably the next best thing.”
Dixville Notch, N.H., An Early Village to Vote for Haley: A Small Sample of Vermonters Says It’s Special
Dixville Notch caters to snowmobilers and Nordic skiers in the winter, and golfers and hikers in the summer. For the primary, it had four registered Republicans and two undeclared voters.
Otten said he didn’t think the New Hampshire primary had fallen flat, with President joe Biden not on the ballot, and Republican nominee Ron DeSantis withdrawing at the last minute.
It’s special. It really is, Otten said. It’s what happens in every community in the US where everyone votes. None of the six of us can complain about the outcome of the election, because we’ve participated.”
The voting place was a new location, a living room of Tillotson House, with the Balsams Resort undergoing renovations. It made for a congenial setting, with an 11-month-old golden retriever named Maxine greeting media and voters.
DIXVILLE NOTCH, N.H. — The voters in the tiny village of Dixville Notch in New Hampshire all cast their votes for Haley, giving her a clean sweep over all the other candidates.
In the 24th century, the resort town was the first place in the nation to vote. The voters were outnumbered more than 10-to-1 by reporters from every corner of the globe — not to mention by a pile of freshly baked chocolate chip cookies.
With such a tiny sample of voters, the results are not typically indicative of how an election will end up. But they do provide for an early curiosity.
The message of Donald Trump’s election is to be Biden or to Become aMAGA: Jason Miller, Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, and the Future of the Republican Party
Jason Miller, a senior advisor on the campaign says Trump has not only unified the base behind him, but he’s also brought in new coalition of voters and expanded the party.
The more establishment, anti-Trump, forces within the party have long been clamoring for this choice, said Alex Conant, who helped lead Senator Marco Rubio’s presidential campaign in 2016.
The identity crisis in the Republican party has been brought into focus by the tightening race.
“The message that will be sent [on Tuesday] is that Trump has officially been chosen. He’s the one,” Rose predicted. “And beyond that, we have to prepare ourselves for either a Biden America or aMAGA America, even if we do not like it or not.”
Luke Rose, a 26-year-old casino dealer, was bowling with co-workers at Yankee Lanes, a downtown Manchester bowling alley. Between turns, he described the way he views the conflict as being between what he calls the “MAGA idealism” of Trump and traditional conservative values of Haley.
Their choice between former President Donald Trump and his former U.N. ambassador, Nikki Haley, will also send a big signal about their feelings on the future of the party.
Phil said that he’s one of those Americans. The 59-year-transportation worker, and former Coast Guard navigator, says Trump changed the party and he evolved with the former president.
He said he was stagnant in his Republican beliefs. Donald Trump’s message has revealed who the party is since he started running.
Super Tuesday and the South Carolina Super Election: a Memo to Haley and Her Friend, Henry McMaster, AdS/CFT
Earlier on Tuesday, Haley’s campaign in a memo laid out a hypothetical path into March, saying that she could compete in a wider variety of states, including the 16 states that vote on March 5, also known as Super Tuesday.
Haley told her supporters Tuesday night that she is still going to compete in her home state’s primary at the end of February.
He was joined at his rally Tuesday by former rivals in the GOP contest, including entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and Tim Scott, a South Carolina U.S. senator whom Haley first appointed to the position. Haley’s successor as South Carolina governor, Henry McMaster, is in favor of Trump.