Vladimir Putin tries to prove that Ukraine is indeed the home of the West: A warning to the West, not the end of the Cold War

President Vladimir V. Putin plans to declare on Friday that some 40,000 square miles of eastern and southern Ukraine will become part of Russia — an annexation broadly denounced by the West, but a signal that the Russian leader is prepared to raise the stakes in the seven-month-old war.

With the Western weapons arriving still, Ukraine is on home territory. Since the collapse of Moscow’s patchwork of forces around the northeastern city of Kharkiv in September – where their supply lines were cut by a smarter Ukrainian force – the dynamic has all been against Moscow.

Putin, however, attempted to claim that the referendums reflected the will of “millions” of people, despite reports from the ground suggesting that voting took place essentially – and in some cases, literally – at gunpoint.

“I want the authorities in Kyiv and their real overlords in the West to hear me: the residents of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson are becoming our citizens,” Putin said. “You are forever.”

The Russian president framed the annexation as an attempt to fix what he sees as a great historical mistake that followed the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Many of Putin’s statements over the last several years made it clear that the Russian empire was going to be renewed. This was a warning to me that war was coming, he said.

Russia will go ahead with plans to fly its flag over 100,000 square km of Ukrainian territory despite international condemnation and the fact that it is largest forcible annexation of land in Europe since 1945.

The Grand Kremlin Palace is where the Russian leader spoke in March of 2016 when he claimed that the Ukrainian peninsula of annexed Crimea was a part of Russia.

Putin was joined by officials from the four regions who had been appointed by the Kremlin.

As Russia reels from its military failure, the Kremlin has sought to use its propaganda channels to amplify Putin’s arguments that Russia is at war with the West.

He pointed out a bunch of military actions from the British Opium War in China in the 19th century to the Allied fires in Germany and the Vietnam and Korean Wars.

The United States, he said, was the only country to have used nuclear weapons in war. Mr. Putin added that they had created a precedent.

The large-scale Russian bombardment struck several cities – including far reaches of western Ukraine close to NATO’s eastern flank – across the country almost simultaneously, propelling the conflict into a new phase and coming just as much of the country was starting to roar back to life.

The Kremlin News Report: “We Are Coming to the Damned End of the Cold War,” Spokesman Dmitri S. Peskov

Friday’s events include a celebration on Red Square. Official ratification of the decrees will happen next week, said Dmitri S. Peskov, the Kremlin’s spokesman.

During a war in defiance of international law the moves were staged. Since the beginning of the war, a lot of the provinces’ civilian population has fled fighting and people who did vote were often asked to surrender their weapons.

Cementing Russia’s hold over the two eastern regions, an area collectively known as the Donbas that Mr. Putin considers his primary prize, could allow the Kremlin to declare a victory at a time when hawks in Russia have criticized Russian forces for not doing enough to prevent recent breakneck gains by Ukrainian forces in the south and northeast of the country.

The recent drive for 300,000 troops won’t reverse Putin’s losses on the battlefield, so he will have to rely on politics to pay the political tab.

Mr. Putin is expected to deliver a “voluminous” speech, his spokesman said. He is likely to downplay his military’s struggles in Ukraine and rising domestic dissent. He is probably going to ignore the worldwide denunciations of the referendums held in occupied Ukraine, where many were coerced to vote at their will.

Putin made the statement at the signing ceremony at the Kremlin. “And that choice won’t be betrayed” by Russia, he said.

Hill says Putin wants his talks to be with Biden and allies, not the people of Ukraine. And that means recognizing what we have done on the ground in Ukraine.”

There were preparations under way for a concert and rally next to the Kremlin where banners said Russia and the territories are together forever.

The move comes after days of referendums that supposedly delivered overwhelming majorities in favor of joining Russia.

“The United States will never, never, never recognize Russia’s claims on Ukraine sovereign territory,” Biden said. “This so-called referenda was a sham — an absolute sham — and the results were manufactured in Moscow.”

Putin, however, framed the decision as a historical justice following the breakup of the Soviet Union that had left Russian speakers separated from their homeland — and the West dictating world affairs according to its own rules.

Once again, Western powers accused Russia this month of using the guise of staged votes to justify its annexation of Ukraine’s territory — often at the barrel of a gun.

Legislative approval of the annexation, which is illegal under international law, will take a couple of days, but is expected to be a formality. Putin and his allies effectively control both branches of the Russian legislature, and the space for political dissent in Russia has shrunk in recent years.

The Russian government’s annexation has happened as it seeks to deploy 300,000 more troops to boost its military campaign in the wake of a Ukrainian counteroffensive that has taken control of parts of the south and northeast of the country.

Meanwhile, Russian officials have openly warned that the newly incorporated territories would be entitled to protections under Russia’s nuclear umbrella.

This is the worrying thing. In Russia, the talk isn’t about ending the war, but about changing the mistakes that caused a retreat, reinforcing discipline and doubling down in Ukraine.

For a country with no aid for a long period of time, sheltering so many refugees likely won’t be sustainable. Russia may hope that Moldova will crack under the increasing number of refugees and that this will help to further undermine Eastern Europe.

The perception that Putin is no longer reading Russia’s moods has been strengthened by traffic tailbacks at the Georgia border and the long lines at the country’s borders with other countries.

Kortunov understands the public mood about the huge costs and loss of life in the war, but he doesn’t know what goes on in the Kremlin. “Many people would start asking questions, why did we get into this mess? Why did we lose so many people?

He used the same playbook annexing Crimea from Ukraine in 2014 and now, like then, threatens potential nuclear strikes should Ukraine, backed by its Western allies, try to take the annexed territories back.

Western leaders are at odds with Putin. Jake Sullivan, national security adviser of the US, said on Sunday that Washington would respond very forcefully if Russia deployed nuclear weapons against Ukraine.

Moscow and the Danes & the Germans: Putin is on a mission to restore peace in the wake of the First Russian Blast

The first blast hit at around 2 a.m. and the second was at 7 p.m.

Within hours, roiling patches of sea were discovered, the Danes and the Germans sent warships to secure the area, and Norway increased security around its oil and gas facilities.

Russia denies responsibility and says it has launched its own investigation. But former CIA chief John Brennan said Russia has the expertise to inflict this type of damage “all the signs point to some type of sabotage that these pipelines are only in about 200 feet or so of water and Russia does have an undersea capability to that will easily lay explosive devices by those pipelines.”

Russian naval vessels were seen by European security officials in the area in the days prior, Western intelligence sources have said. NATO’s North Atlantic Council has described the damage as a “deliberate, reckless and irresponsible act of sabotage.”

Nord Stream 2 was never operational, and Nord Stream 1 had been throttled back by Putin as Europe raced to replenish gas reserves ahead of winter, while dialling back demands for Russian supplies and searching for replacement providers.

Second and simultaneously, Putin is playing desperately for time – hoping the political clock and the onset of winter in Europe will sap the will and energies of the Western powers that have all but eviscerated his military-industrial machine and destroyed the armed might of Russia.

Putin appears to be trying to divide western allies over terms for peace, after failing in the face of military unity.

Volker expects Putin to use all his clout to persuade France and Germany to end the war, protect their territories and put pressure on the Ukrainians to come to an agreement.

Putin knows he is in a corner, but doesn’t seem to realize how small a space he has, and that of course is what’s most worrying – would he really make good on his nuclear threats?

Lyman, Ukraine: No longer toys in the war, but Russia is fighting by the West – an example from Kiev’s “women, life, freedom!”

KRAMATORSK, Ukraine — Ukrainian forces on Sunday hunted Russian stragglers in the key city of Lyman, which was taken back from Russia after its demoralized troops, according to a major Russian newspaper, fled with “empty eyes,” and despite Moscow’s baseless claim it had annexed the region surrounding the city.

A day earlier, two powerful Putin supporters railed against the Kremlin and called for using harsher fighting methods because Lyman had fallen just as Moscow was declaring that the illegally annexed region it lies in would be Russian forever.

In their last days in Lyman, the Russian forces were plagued with desertion, poor planning, and delays in the entrance of reserves according to an article by the Komsomolskaya Pravda.

Russia’s flagship Sunday political show, ” News of the Week,” on Channel 1 didn’t even mention the fall of Lyman until after more than an hour of laudatory coverage of Russia’s annexation of most of the world.

But the soldiers interviewed on the Sunday broadcast said they had been forced to retreat because they were fighting not only with Ukrainians, but with NATO soldiers.

“These are no longer toys here. The deputy commander of the Russian battalion told the war correspondent that the army and NATO forces were engaged in a concerted and clear offensive. The soldier insisted that his unit had been intercepting discussions by Romanian and Polish soldiers, not Ukrainians, on their radios.

The broadcast was meant to convince Russians who are not sure about the war or just don’t want to be blamed for any hardship that they may suffer, that even if they do go through hardship, they are still going to be blamed for the war by the West.

In an interview with the grieving father of a popular nationalist commentator who died by a car bomb in August, the idea was again repeated that Russia is fighting a broader campaign.

If the chances of success in Iran’s “women, life, freedom!” uprising look dim, consider what could have happened to Ukraine, who was about to be seized by one of the most powerful military forces in the world.

Mr. Dugin, like Mr. Putin, has accused Western countries of damaging the Nord Stream gas pipelines, which ruptured after underwater explosions last month in what both European and Russian leaders have called an act of sabotage.

He said that the West had accused us of blowing up the gasline of ourselves. “We must understand the geopolitical confrontation, the war, our war with the West on the scale and extent on which it is unfolding. In other words, we must join this battle with a mortal enemy who does not hesitate to use any means, including exploding gas pipelines.”

At least for now the nonstop messaging campaign is working. The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace senior fellow from Russia said Russians feel threatened by the West.

And in the fall, public demobilization was replaced by mobilization – Putin demanded that citizens share responsibility for the war with him with their bodies. This provoked unprecedented anxiety, but instead of serious protests, the bulk of the population again preferred adaptation.

The defeat of Putin in Kiev and the EU condemns the actions of the Kremlin and the United States in the recent Russian parliamentary elections

US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said in an interview with CNN on Sunday that he believes Ukraine is “making progress” in Kherson, thanks in part to weapons supplied by Washington.

“What we’re seeing now is a kind of change in the battlefield dynamics,” Austin said. They have done really well in the Kharkiv area and moved to take advantage of the opportunities that came their way. The Kherson region is making progress, but they are still going a little slower.

The contests failed to meet international standards of free and fair elections and have been panned as a farce. Reports from the ground said that voting was both gunpoint and essentially done at home.

Countries across the world quickly condemned Putin’s announcement that the regions would be annexed. The European Union and members of the G7 promised to impose more economic costs on Russia, because they would never recognize the Kremlin’s sovereignty over the regions.

The EU member states summoned Russian ambassadors on Friday in a coordinated manner to condemn the actions of the Russian Federation and demand that they stop violating the UN Charter and international law.

Violence, Beauty, and Democracy: The Case for the Crimes of Zhina, an Iranian Woman in Violent Propaganda

Ghitis is a former CNN producer and correspondent. She is a weekly opinion contributor to CNN, a columnist for The Washington Post, and a columnist for World Politics Review. The views expressed in this commentary are her own. View more opinion on CNN.

There were two groups of demonstrators who came together in London on Sunday. One person waved Ukrainian flags while the other waved Iranian flags. When they met, they cheered each other, and chanted, “All together we will win.”

Twelve months into the war, Ukraine and Ukrainians have changed. The death toll of civilians and fighters is estimated at tens of thousands. Millions have been driven from their homes.

Braveness is almost impossible to find in the rest of us and is inspiring equally brave support in places like Afghanistan.

Last month, a 22-year-old named mahsa Amini died in Iran. Known as “Zhina,” she died in the custody of morality police who detained her for breaking the relentlessly, violently enforced rules requiring women to dress modestly.

In scenes of exhilarated defiance, Iranian women have danced around fires in the night, shedding the hijab – the headcover mandated by the regime – and tossing it into the flames.

It’s why women are climbing on cars, waving their hijab in the air, like a flag of freedom, and gathering crowds of supporters in city streets, and in universities, where security forces are opening fire to try and silence them.

Vladimir Putin in Syria, whose regime trained soldiers killed civilians and whose drones killed Niloofar-Hamedi during the February 2016 invasion

Russia, which has been a dominant military force in Syria since 2015 and helps maintain the government’s grip on power, still keeps a sizable presence there. But the change could herald shifts in the balance of power in one of the world’s most complicated conflict zones, and may lead Israel — Syria’s enemy — to rethink its stance toward the Ukraine conflict.

All this adds up to a complex path ahead for the Zelensky administration, especially if liberating Crimea from Russia is part of the definition of victory envisioned by most Ukrainians. For the time being, and true to form, the tough guy from Kryvyi Rih shows no sign of backing down.

Its invasion in February managed to startle in every way. To the people who thought Moscow was crazy to not try it. To those who thought the Russian military would come to a land with 40 million inhabitants and start clean-up operations in 10 days. To those who felt that the Kremlin had developed their military skills from the 90s leveling of Grozny in Chechnya, to the point that they were capable of more than just randomly bombarding civilian areas.

The repressive regimes in Moscow and Tehran are now isolated, pariahs among much of the world, openly supported for the most part by a smattering of autocrats.

After the start of his war in Russia, Putin traveled to Iran for the first time outside the Soviet Union. Is it any wonder that Iran trained Russian forces to kill Ukrainians and that Russia now has advanced drones to kill them?

The regimes of these two are very different in many respects, but they share similar tactics of oppression and their willingness to project power abroad.

Niloofar Hamedi was the first journalist to report on what happened to Mahsa Amini in Iran’s prisons. In Russia as well, journalism is a deadly profession. So is criticizing Putin. After trying and failing to kill opposition leader Alexei Navalny, Putin’s people manufactured charges to keep him in a penal colony indefinitely.

There is interest in the chance that the Iranian regime could fall for people in countries like Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen. It would be transformative for their countries and their lives, heavily influenced by Tehran. Iran has a constitution that calls for spreading its revolution.

Putin and Xi, the world’s leading autocrats, looked ascendant, unstoppable even. There have been violent protests against Covid-19 restrictions in the Western democracies. Putin was preparing for triumph in Ukraine. The Olympics were being hosted by Xi, and he was ready to solidify his control of China.

Russian President Vladimir Putin anticipates that the situation will improve in some war-torn regions of Ukraine despite the fact that Russia does not fully control those areas.

Pro-Kremlin pundits delivered dispatches on the growing setbacks faced by Moscow’s troops on the ground while Russian state television hailed Putin’s inking of the annexation process.

Russian forces have been forced to retreat from previously held settlements in the south of Ukranian as the Russian-occupied city of Kherson braces itself for a counteroffensive by Kyiv.

Ukrainian Defense Minister Petro Kotin, Defense Minister Igor Konashenkov and Defense Minister Vladnik Dmitry Peskov reaffirmed Putin’s actions in the Kherson region

In celebration of the news, Putin invited teachers from all of Russia to a meeting on TV where they were to be thanked for their work.

Our work, our destiny, our homes, and our future all are with us, as always. We will follow the law in the Ukrainian energy system. Don’t doubt it!” Petro Kotin said in a video address to the plant’s employees.

Lieutenant General Igor Konashenkov, who spoke while the map was shown full-screen, did not mention the losses. However, he said that Russian military destroyed Ukrainian armor and killed Ukrainian forces in the area of several towns that are now understood to be under Ukrainian control – a tacit acknowledgment of Kyiv’s push.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky praised the military for their “fast and powerful advances” in his Tuesday evening address, before celebrating that “dozens of settlements have already been liberated” this week.

In Kherson region, he claimed that several names had been reclaimed, including Zolota Balka, Ukraiinka, Velyka and Mala Oleksandrivka.

Zelensky convened his top military and security staff to discuss plans for the liberation of the Ukrainian territories in a meeting on Wednesday.

Asked by CNN how to interpret the language of the laws signed by Putin – which refers to the borders of the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions as “the territory which existed on the day of its adoption in the Russian Federation” – Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said, “I will leave this question unanswered.”

The army is degraded in both quality and capability. Over the course of the war, the composition of Russia’s military force in Ukranian has greatly altered as many of its early active duty personnel have been injured or killed. The Russian military leadership is not sure how this undisciplined force will react when confronted with cold, exhausting combat conditions or rumors of Ukrainian assaults. The experience suggests demoralized forces in the Kharkiv region panicked and abandoned their positions.

“In the Kherson region, we have lost 17 settlements,” Alexander Sladkov, a leading Russian war correspondent, conceded on state TV Tuesday, before placing the blame on “fat” US weapons deliveries and “intelligence gathered via satellite reconnaissance.”

“The Russian troops do not have enough manpower to stop the enemy attacks,” Kots said in a video. “The recent Russian losses are directly connected to that. It’s a very difficult period of time on the front line at the moment.”

Russia said Thursday its forces would help evacuate residents of occupied Kherson to other areas, as Ukraine’s offensive continued to make gains in the region. The head of the Moscow-backed administration in Kherson appealed to the Kremlin for help in moving residents out of harms way, which was a signal that Russian forces were struggling in the face of Ukrainian advances.

What Happens in War: Evgeniy Poddubnyy, State Media Reporter of Russia 24, Says: “We are still waiting for reinforcements”

“They don’t have problems with the intelligence data or high-precision weapons which they are constantly using. We are waiting for our reserves to become fit so we can fight.

Meanwhile, state media reporter Evgeniy Poddubnyy, a correspondent for Russia 24, said Tuesday that “we’re going through the hardest time on the frontline” and that “for the time being it will become even harder.”

This does not mean that we have collapsed. These are mistakes that are not huge strategic failures. We are still learning. I know this is hard to hear in our eighth month of the special operation. We are reporters. We are waiting for reinforcements.

It is as bad as getting hit on your melon. We’ve suffered losses. It is war. Things happen in war. Reinforcements are on their way with their equipment. I don’t lie or engage in propaganda. I am just a regular reporter who is telling the story.

His second admission was on State TV in less than a month after he admitted that Russian forces had suffered heavy losses. At the beginning of this Tuesday’s interview, Sladkov quipped: “I only tell the truth on Tuesdays, and for other days I just make everything up.”

Bergen and the Great Patriotic War of World War II: Why Russia was so devastated by the Soviet Union, but that didn’t stop the Soviets

Peter Bergen is CNN’s national security analyst and a professor of practice at Arizona State University. Bergen is a noted author with a book called The Cost of Chaos. The views expressed in this commentary are his own. CNN has more opinion on it.

(Indeed, his revisionist account defines his rationale for the war in Ukraine, which he asserts has historically always been part of Russia – even though Ukraine declared its independence from the Soviet Union more than three decades ago.)

A recent book written by a historian shows how the Soviets intended to get out of Afghanistan as soon as possible after entering the country in 1979.

During the war against the Soviets in Afghanistan, the US was initially reluctant to escalate its support for the Afghan resistance, fearing a wider conflict with the Soviet Union. The Soviets were defeated in Afghanistan in 1986 because the CIA gave the Afghans high-tech anti-aircraft missiles, which ended their air superiority.

Failure to demonstrate further progress on the battlefield with billions of dollars worth of military kit could stir unease among Western backers. But capitulation to Russia would be a political death sentence.

“These air defense systems are making a difference because many of the incoming missiles [this week] were actually shot down by the Ukrainian air defense systems provided by NATO Allies,” he said.

Putin is also surely aware that the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 was hastened by the withdrawal of Soviet forces from Afghanistan two years earlier.

Looking further back into the history books, he must also know that the Russian loss in the Russo-Japanese war in 1905 weakened the Romanov monarchy. Czar Nicholas II’s feckless leadership during the First World War then precipitated the Russian Revolution in 1917. Subsequently, much of the Romanov family was killed by a Bolshevik firing squad.

On February 22 – just two days before Russia’s invasion – former US President Donald Trump, who has always fawned over Putin, publicly said that the Russian autocrat was “genius” and “savvy” for declaring two regions of eastern Ukraine independent and moving his troops there in a prelude to full-blown invasion.

The Great Patriotic War of World War II is a preoccupation of Putinism’s central features. And those in Russia’s party of war often speak admiringly of the brutal tactics employed by the Red Army to fight Hitler’s Wehrmacht, including the use of punishment battalions – sending soldiers accused of desertion, cowardice or wavering against German positions as cannon fodder – and the use of summary execution to halt unauthorized retreats.

Putin’s gamble may lead to a third dissolution of the Russian empire, which happened first in 1917 as the First World War wound down, and again in 1991 after the fall of the Soviet Union.

The head of the defense committee in the State Duma asked officials to stop lying and level with the Russian public.

The ministry of defense did not tell the truth about the Ukrainian cross-border strikes, according to Kartapolov.

Near the border with Ukraine, there is Valuyki. Kyiv has generally adopted a neither-confirm-nor-deny stance when it comes to striking Russian targets across the border.

“There is no need to somehow cast a shadow over the entire Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation because of some, I do not say traitors, but incompetent commanders, who did not bother, and were not accountable, for the processes and gaps that exist today,” Stremousov said. Many say that the Minister of Defense, Shoigu, could shoot himself if he wanted to. The word officer is not familiar to many.

Kadyrov has been less reticent about naming names when he accuses Russian commanders.

Writing on Telegram, Kadyrov personally blamed Colonel-General Aleksandr Lapin, the commander of Russia’s Central Military District, for the debacle, accusing him of moving his headquarters away from his subordinates and failing to adequately provide for his troops.

“The Russian information space has significantly deviated from the narratives preferred by the Kremlin and the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) that things are generally under control,” ISW noted in its recent analysis.

Kadyrov – who recently announced that he had been promoted by Putin to the rank of colonel general – has been one of the most prominent voices arguing for the draconian methods of the past. He recently said in another Telegram post that, if he had his way, he would give the government extraordinary wartime powers in Russia.

“Yes, if it were my will, I would declare martial law throughout the country and use any weapon, because today we are at war with the whole NATO bloc,” Kadyrov said in a post that also seemed to echo Putin’s not-so-subtle threats that Russia might contemplate the use of nuclear weapons.

Kiev attack on the Ukrainian Embassy in Kharkiv, the largest city in Europe, and the death of a village in the country’s northern hemisphere

The result in just one village has been devastating: homes reduced to rubble, a burned-out school and a gut-rending stench from the rotting carcasses of 24,000 dead chickens.

All fell victim last month to the worst violence to hit the area since the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union — a brief but bloody border conflict between Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, both members of a Russia-led military alliance dedicated to preserving peace but which did nothing to halt the mayhem.

Michael Bociurkiw is a global affairs analyst who in summer relocated from Canada to Ukraine. He is a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and a former spokesperson for the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe.

Recent days have meanwhile shown that sites beyond the current theater of ground fighting are far from immune to attacks. The fact that a target is so deep in Russian-held territory suggests a serious Ukrainian threat towards key Russian assets.

Unverified video on social media showed hits near the Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv and close to Maidan Square, just a short stroll from the Presidential Office Building. Five people were killed as a result of strikes on the capital, according to Ukrainian officials.

As of midday, there were no air raid sirens in the area around my office and there were no reports of missiles being shot down. (Normally at this time of the day, nearby restaurants would be heaving with customers, and chatter of plans for upcoming weddings and parties).

Monday’s attacks also came just a few hours after Zaporizhzhia, a southeastern city close to the largest nuclear power plant in Europe, was hit by multiple strikes on apartment buildings, mostly while people slept. At least 17 people were killed and many more were injured.

In a video filmed outside his office Monday, a defiant President Volodymyr Zelensky said it appeared many of the 100 or so missile strikes across Ukraine were aimed at the country’s energy infrastructure. Denys Shmyhal, the prime minister of Ukraine, said at least 11 infrastructure facilities were damaged and some provinces were without power.

In the city of Kharkiv, where there have been more bombardments than in Kyiv, people have stocked their homes with gas, canned food, and drinking water. Yet they also entertained themselves at the Typsy Cherry, a local bar. “The mood was cheerful,” its owner, Vladyslav Pyvovar, told The Times. “People drank, had fun and wondered when the electricity will resume.” (Power came back hours later.)

Indeed, millions of people in cities across Ukraine will be spending most of the day in bomb shelters, at the urging of officials, while businesses have been asked to shift work online as much as possible.

As much as the regions of Ukraine were starting to return to life, the attacks could cause another blow to business confidence.

For Putin, the symbolism of the only bridge linking mainland Russia and Crimea cannot be overstated. That the attack took place a day after his 70th birthday (the timing prompted creative social media denizens to create a split-screen video of Marilyn Monroe singing ‘Happy Birthday, Mr President”) can be taken as an added blow to an aging autocrat whose ability to withstand shame and humiliation is probably nil.

dictators seem to think that hardwiring newly claimed territory with expensive infrastructure projects is a good idea. In 2018, Putin personally opened the Kerch bridge – Europe’s longest – by driving a truck across it. That same year, one of the first things Chinese President Xi Jinping did after Beijing reclaimed Macau and Hong Kong was to connect the former Portuguese and British territories with the world’s longest sea crossing bridge. Two years of delays caused the opening of the road bridge.

The Ukrain Crimea Explosion: What the West Needs to Deal with a Cold Dark Matter? The Example of Roman Kravets

The reaction among Ukrainians to the explosion was instantaneous: humorous memes lit up social media channels like a Christmas tree. Many Texted their sense of jubilation.

Sitting still was never an option for Putin, he was consumed with self-interest. He responded, by unleashing more death and destruction, with the force that comes naturally to a former KGB operative, in the only way he knows how.

Facing increased criticism at home has placed Putin on thin ice, which is an act of selfish desperation.

The Ukrainian journalist Roman Kravets was told by the Chief of the Main Intelligence Directorate at the Defense Ministry that they need to enter Crimea by the end of the year.

It is vital that Washington and other allies use telephone diplomacy to urge China and India not to use even more deadly weapons, as they still have some leverage over Putin.

So, how does the West deal with a Russia that has experienced this colossal loss of face in Ukraine and is slowly withering economically because of sanctions? Is a weak Russia something to fear, or just weak? This is the unknown the West must wrestle with. But it is no longer such a terrifying question.

Russia’s Road to War with Ukraine : News from Kiev’s Frontline and from Ukraine’s Computational Instability in Kyiv

High tech defense systems are needed to protect energy infrastructure around the country. With winter just around the corner, it is important to protect heating systems.

The West should be putting pressure on Turkey and the Gulf states to join them in isolating Russia with trade and travel restrictions.

On Monday, state television not only reported on the suffering, but also flaunted it. There was a picture of smoke and carnage in central Kyiv, as well as empty store shelves and a long-range forecast of freezing temperatures there.

The bombardment echoes the early days of the Russian invasion in February but also underscores how the conflict in Ukraine has erupted once more as winter approaches.

The war is approaching an unpredictable new phase for the first time. “This is now the third, fourth, possibly fifth different war that we’ve been observing,” said Keir Giles, a senior consulting fellow at Chatham House’s Russia and Eurasia Programme.

“What seemed a distant prospect for anything that could be convincingly described as a Ukraine victory is now very much more plausible,” Giles said. “The response from Russia is likely to escalate further.”

In the southern Kherson region, Ukrainian troops hoisted the country’s flag above a building last month. Ukrainian officials say they have liberated hundreds of settlements since their counter-offensive began.

The counter-offensives have brought about a change in the war’s course and disproved the notion thatUkraine lacked the ability to seize ground.

According to the author of “Russia’s Road to War with Ukraine,” the Russians are hoping to avoid a collapse in their frontline before winter sets in.

“If they can get to Christmas with the frontline looking roughly as it is, that’s a huge success for the Russians given how botched this has been since February.”

It would send a powerful signal if it was able to take a big hit in the war in Donbas, which would cause temperatures there to plummet and the impact of rising energy prices to be felt around Europe.

Within Ukraine, the economy continues to stumble from the impact of war and persistent missile and drone attacks on critical power infrastructure – including at least 76 strikes on Friday. Millions of Ukrainians are without heat, power and water during the winter. The resilience shown by the Ukrainians since the start of the war has been an indicator of their willingness to endure hardship for another two to five years if it means defeating Russia.

Valeriy Chaly, Ukraine’s former ambassador to the United States, said the region would be more stable if Ukraine wins the war and joins NATO. This is what Ukraine’s government wants, though joining the alliance is highly unlikely in the near term.

Much of the electricity supply in Ukraine was disrupted on Monday and Tuesday because of Russian missile attacks, but the power company Ukrenergo says that it has been restored. Ukrainian Prime Minister warned of a lot of work being done to fix damaged equipment, and urged people to reduce energy use during peak hours.

The experts believe it is unlikely that Russia will form a pattern of bombardment throughout the year; while estimating the military reserve of either army is a murky endeavor, Western assessments suggest Moscow may not have the capacity to keep it up.

Jeremy Fleming, the UK’s spy chief, said in a rare speech on Tuesday that he knows Russian commanders are aware that their supplies are running out.

The impact of the strikes was stated in the daily update from the I SW, which noted that the strikes “wasted some of Russia’s dwindling precision weapons against civilian targets as opposed to militarily significant targets.”

The success of Ukrainian intercepts of Russian cruise missiles has increased since the start of the invasion, according to a military expert with the London-based Royal United Services Institute.

“The barrage of missile strikes is going to be an occasional feature reserved for shows of extreme outrage, because the Russians don’t have the stocks of precision munitions to maintain that kind of high-tempo missile assault into the future,” Puri said.

The psychological impact of any further involvement in the war could also be found, according to Puri. “Everyone’s mind in Ukraine and in the West has been oriented towards fighting one army,” he said. The war would play into Putins narrative that this war is about reunification of the former Rus states.

“The reopening of a northern front would be another new challenge for Ukraine,” Giles said. He said it would provide Russia with a new route into the area that has been regained by Ukraine.

As the New Year approached, Mr. Zelensky told tales of despair and triumph, and heralded the resolve of his fellow Ukrainians. The first missiles in February, he said, “destroyed our labyrinth of illusions” but had also shown Ukrainians “what we are capable of.”

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said Tuesday that Ukraine needed “more” systems to better halt missile attacks, ahead of a meeting of NATO defense ministers in Brussels.

Ukraine “badly needed” modern systems such as the IRIS-T that arrived this week from Germany and the NASAMS expected from the United States , Bronk said.

Moscow is fighting on its own territory in the wake of the Belgorod tragedy of Sunday, February 11. Vladimir Putin meets with the Russian Embassy in Donetsk

That’s not to say mobilized forces will be of no use. In support roles, like drivers, they might ease the burden on Russia’s exhausted professional army. Along the line of communication, they could fill out depleted units and cordon some areas. They are, however, unlikely to become a capable fighting force. There are signs of discipline problems among the soldiers who have been deployed.

Mr. Putin could wage a more generalized attack against Ukrainians. The attacks of the past week — particularly striking critical civilian infrastructure — could be expanded across Ukraine if missile supplies hold out, while Russia could directly target the Ukrainian leadership with strikes or special operations.

Struggling on the battlefield in southern and eastern Ukraine, Russia felt war on its own territory on Sunday as more than a dozen explosions ripped through a Russian border region, and a series of blasts severely damaged the offices of Russia’s puppet government in the Ukrainian city of Donetsk.

The blasts, which Russia attributed to Ukrainian shelling, came a day after another sign of disarray in Russia’s once-vaunted military machine: Two men opened fire on fellow Russian soldiers at a training camp in the Belgorod region, killing 11 and wounding 15 before being killed themselves.

The mayor of Moscow, Sergey Sobyanin, seemed to be taking pains to offer reassurances. Mr. Sobyanin wrote that no measures are being introduced to limit the normal rhythms of the city.

And despite the new power granted them by Mr. Putin, the regional governors of Kursk, Krasnodar and Voronezh said no entry or exit restrictions would be imposed.

Russia has never declared martial law before, but many of them will see a message in the martial law imposed in Ukranian.

“People are worried that they will soon close the borders, and the siloviki” — the strong men close to Mr. Putin in the Kremlin — “will do what they want,” Ms. Stanovaya said.

On Tuesday, the newly appointed commander of the Russian invasion, Gen. Sergei Surovikin, acknowledged that his army’s position in Kherson was “already quite difficult” and appeared to suggest that a tactical retreat might be necessary. The general said he was ready to make difficult decisions about military deployment, but didn’t say anything about what those might be.

Russia redeployed key military hardware and troops from Syria, according to three senior officials in the Middle East, as a signal that it had lost influence in other parts of the world.

Donald Andelman: NATO, the Middle East, and Europe: Inside the Changing Faces of Russian and German-American Warfare

David A. Andelman is a CNN contributor and author of “A Red Line in the Sand: Diplomacy, Strategy, and the History of Wars that Might Still Happen.” He was a reporter for CBS News in Europe and Asia. His own views are expressed in this commentary. View more opinion at CNN.

He wants to distract from the fact that he is losing on the battlefield and fails to accomplish even the scaled back objectives of his invasion.

This ability to keep going can be affected by a variety of variables, including the availability of critical and affordable energy supplies for the coming winter and popular will across a broad range of nations.

After a meeting of European Union powers in the early hours of Friday, they agreed on a plan to control energy prices, which have been high since the embargoes on Russian imports and Kremlin cutting natural gas supplies.

There is an emergency cap on the Dutch Title Transfer Facility and a permission for EU gas companies to create a bloc to buy gas on the international market.

While hailing the summit as having maintained European unity, the French President conceded that it was only the European Commission that had a clear mandate to work on a gas cap mechanism.

Germany, the biggest economy in Europe, is skeptical of price caps. Energy ministers will have to work out details with Germany, which is concerned that the caps will encourage higher consumption.

These divisions are all part of Putin’s fondest dream. Manifold forces in Europe could prove central to achieving success from the Kremlin’s viewpoint, which amounts to the continent failing to agree on essentials.

Germany and France are at odds over a number of these issues. Though in an effort to reach some accommodation, Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz have scheduled a conference call for Wednesday.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/25/opinions/putin-prolonge-war-ukraine-winter-andelman/index.html

Italy is moving fast – and the West is turning up the pressure on Russia: Meloni, Berlusconi, Jacob, Blinken and Kuleba

The new government has taken power in Italy. Giorgia Meloni was sworn in Saturday as Italy’s first woman prime minister and has attempted to brush aside the post-fascist aura of her party. One of her far-right coalition partners has a very warm opinion of Putin.

Berlusconi, in a secretly recorded audio tape, said he’d returned Putin’s gesture with bottles of Lambrusco wine, adding that “I knew him as a peaceful and sensible person,” in the LaPresse audio clip.

The other leader in the Italian coalition, Matteo Salvini, said during the campaign that he would not want sanctions against Russia to harm those who imposed them more than those who were hit.

Poland and Hungary, longstanding soulmates of the right, have both criticized the policies of the EU, which seemed to reduce their influence. Poland has taken deep offense at the pro-Putin sentiments of Hungary’s populist leader Viktor Orban.

Similar forces seem to be at work in Washington where House GOP leader Kevin McCarthy, poised to become Speaker of the House if Republicans take control after next month’s elections, told an interviewer, “I think people are gonna be sitting in a recession and they’re not going to write a blank check to Ukraine. They are not going to do it.

Meanwhile on Monday, the influential 30-member Congressional progressive caucus called on Biden to open talks with Russia on ending the conflict while its troops are still occupying vast stretches of the country and its missiles and drones are striking deep into the interior.

Hours later, caucus chair Mia Jacob, facing a firestorm of criticism, emailed reporters with a statement “clarifying” their remarks in support of Ukraine. Secretary of State Antony Blinken also called his Ukrainian counterpart Dmytro Kuleba to renew America’s support.

The US has presented more than $60 billion of aid since Biden took office, but Republicans voted against the most recent aid package.

This support in terms of arms, materiel and now training for Ukrainian forces has been the main basis of their battlefield successes against a weak and ill-prepared Russian military.

At the same time, the West is turning up the pressure on Russia. Last Thursday, the State Department released a detailed report on the impact of sanctions and export controls strangling the Russian military-industrial complex.

Russian production of hypersonic missiles has all but ceased “due to the lack of necessary semi-conductors,” said the report. Aircraft are being cannibalized for spare parts, plants producing anti-aircraft systems have shut down, and “Russia has reverted to Soviet-era defense stocks” for replenishment. The Soviet era ended more than 30 years ago.

The USSeizure of all property of a top Russian procurement agent Yury Orekhov and his agencies was announced a day before this report.

The Department of Justice charged people and companies in violation of sanctions for trying to smuggle high-tech equipment into Russia.

CNN’s Leila Fadel in Kherson – a ripple impact on the war effort to end the war between Ukraine and Russia

There are still hardliners like Gubarev, who said they weren’t coming to kill you but to convince you. But if you don’t want to be convinced, we’ll kill you. We’ll kill as many as we have to: 1 million, 5 million, or exterminate all of you.”

In a special report, NPR’s Leila Fadel explores the human cost of Russia’s ambitions, the ripple effects beyond Ukraine’s borders, and the diplomatic and military efforts to stop the war.

For much of the journey through smaller towns and settlements, our team of CNN journalists was forced to drive through diversions and fields: bridges over canals were blown up, and roads were full of craters and littered with anti-tank mines.

The outskirts of the city, which had been occupied by Russian forces since March 3, were deserted, with no military presence except for a Ukrainian checkpoint around 5 miles outside of the city center, where half a dozen soldiers waved CNN’s crew in.

The city has no power, no internet and no water. But as a CNN crew entered the city center on Saturday, the mood was euphoric.

Once the scene of large protests against Russian plans to transform the region into a breakaway pro-Russian republic, the streets of Kherson are now filled with jubilant residents wrapped in Ukrainian flags, or with painted faces, singing and shouting.

Huge cheers erupt from crowds on the street whenever a truck full of soldiers drives past, and Ukrainian soldiers are offered soup, bread, flowers, hugs and kisses by excited passers-by.

As CNN’s crew stopped to regroup, we observed an old man and an old woman hugging a young soldier, with hands on the soldier’s shoulder, exchanging excited “thank yous.”

This whole year has been full of tears and worries. The news about the deaths of people close to me is what keeps me going.

Everyone wants you to understand what the occupier went through, how happy they are now, and how grateful they are to the countries who helped them.

Everyone we have spoken to is aware that there are tougher days to come: that the Russians across the river could shell them here. It is not clear if the entire Russian troops have left Kherson or not. There is still uncertainty behind this euphoria.

The Perfect Moment for Putin and the United States: Biden Meeting Xi Towards Democracy Is Rigorous, Unexpectedly Destroying Ukraine

Judging by the statements from the White House and the Chinese government, that’s precisely what happened. The two sides discussed sources of disagreement, including Taiwan’s autonomy, the war in Ukraine and China’s human rights record. Climate change, global health and economic stability were among areas of potential cooperation broached.

Biden pointed out that the results of the election show that the US will be engaged in the future. There was more than one message. The health of America’s democracy is one of the most important signals from the mid-terms. The US elections not only went smoothly and peacefully, but they also dealt a harsh blow to many of the most antidemocratic elements in the country.

That’s not the only reason, however, why this was the perfect moment — from the standpoint of the United States and for democracy — for this meeting to occur: There’s much more to this geopolitical moment than who controls the US House of Representatives and Senate.

The president of the Ukranian made an emotional return to Kherson, the city which was destroyed by Russians, when Biden and XI were meeting.

The Ukrainians defended their nation with unexpected tenacity and Biden rallied allies in a muscular push to support them.

By September, China had done little to support Russia, and Putin admitted that he had “questions and concerns” about Ukraine. The President of Russia threatened to use nuclear weapons, and that’s whenXi rebuked him.

Putin decided not to attend the G20 summit in Bali, avoiding confrontation with world leaders as he becomes a pariah on the global stage.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/15/opinions/biden-xi-meeting-democracy-ghitis/index.html

Xi Jinping, the Russian missile, and the Ukraine’s “I want to live” campaign: Russia’s role in the war on Ukraine

Biden is not the only leader with a strong hand. China has a new leader who can rule for as long as he wants. He does not have to worry about the elections, the press or the opposition party. He is the ruler of a very powerful country for a long time to come.

It’s difficult to see that the problems Xi faces are daunting. China is reluctant to release economic data because of the slowing economy. The Chinese Covid-19 vaccine was once a tool of global diplomacy. And partly because of that, China is imposing draconian lockdowns as the rest of the world gradually returns to normalcy after the pandemic.

It is important to show the world that democracy works and that wars of aggression won’t ruin it, as attempts by autocratic countries such as China and Russia to deter it will not succeed.

Now Poland is facing the repercussions from these attacks – and it’s not the only bordering country. Russian rockets have also knocked out power across neighboring Moldova, which is not a NATO member, and therefore attracted considerably less attention than the Polish incident.

Whatever the exact circumstances of the missile, one thing is clear. NATO Secretary General Jens Lundtenberg said that Russia bears ultimate responsibility for the illegal war against Ukraine.

A number of Russian soldiers have refused to fight even though they were asked to do so. The UK Defense Ministry believes Russian troops may be prepared to shoot retreating soldiers.

A hotline and Telegram channel was launched as a Ukrainian military intelligence project “I want to live” designed to assist Russian soldiers eager to defect, has taken off, according to a report.

Vladimir Lenin and Vladimir Viatrovych: Two Months after Ukraine, a German Journalist in Berlin, Has Come to an End?

One leading Russian journalist, Mikhail Zygar, who has settled in Berlin after fleeing in March, told me last week that while he hoped this is not the case, he is prepared to accept the reality – like many of his countrymen, he may never be able to return to his homeland, to which he remains deeply attached.

Yet some good has come from this debacle. Europe knows it must get off its dependence on Russian gas immediately, and hydrocarbons in general in the longer term, as economic dependence on the fossil fuels of dictators cannot bring longer-term stability.

The burden on the Western countries is proving unfulfilled as a result of Putin’s belief that this conflict would drive wedges into the Western alliance. The long-stalled joint French and German project for a next-generation jet fighter at the core of the Future Combat Air System began to move forward on Monday, after word began to circulate that it was beginning to move forward.

Above all, Putin still does not appear to have learned that revenge is not an appropriate way to act on or off the battlefield and in the final analysis is most likely to isolate and weaken Russia, perhaps irreversibly.

Ukrainians were looking to take advantage of chaos in Russia following the Russian monarchy’s demise a year earlier. But Vladimir Lenin and the Communists, the successors to the Russian monarchy, sent troops to Ukraine and defeated that short-lived independence.

In the first days of the war, the Russians decimated the suburb of Bucha. Viatrovych sent his wife and son to western Ukraine for their safety after the Russians invaded Ukraine.

The emergency session of parliament in Kyiv declared martial law. He was provided with a rifle so he could join the security forces and defend the capital.

Ukraine first declared independence from Russia in 1918, doing so in an elegant, whitewashed building in the center of Kyiv that still stands and now serves as the offices for the Kyiv House of Teachers.

A reminder of that history came just two months ago, on Oct. 10. That’s when a Russian missile slammed into the street outside the Kyiv House of Teachers.

The independence hall where the blast blew out windows and parts of the glass ceiling was declared free in 1918. The windows are not in use. Some glass is still on the floor.

Steshuk Oleh, the director of the House ofTeachers said there were parallels to a century ago. The building was damaged in the fighting. It has been damaged again. But don’t worry. Everything will be rebuilt.

“If you look at all the hardships that Ukraine experienced in the 20th century, and they’re vast, this is the moment where all the wrongs of the last hundred plus years need to be redressed,” he said.

Ukrainians thought this matter was finally resolved in December 1991, when they held a referendum on independence. Ninety-two percent voted in favor of going their own way. The Soviet Union’s demise was later that month.

In search of a solution in the crisis of Ukraine: Vladimir Putin and the era of the empire “Kasparov is leaving Russia”

Because “if he’s losing a war, especially a war of his own making, he doesn’t survive,” he said. The end of Putin’s era and the era of the empire may be signaled by the outcome. It’s 21st century. It’s time for empires to go.”

Kasparov was still living in Russia 15 years ago when he entered politics and challenged Putin’s hold on power. He left Russia and now lives in New York, after he realized his safety was at risk.

Many military analysts warn the war is unlikely to produce a clear resolution on the battlefield. They say it’s likely to require negotiations and compromises.

That’s not a popular opinion in Ukraine. Many people, including President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, want all the Russian troops out of the country. Zelenskyy recently told Time magazine, “We are dealing with a powerful state that is pathologically unwilling to let Ukraine go.”

Being a buffer zone or gray zone is not good for a political point of view, he said. “If you are a gray zone between two security blocs, two military blocs, everybody wants to make a step. This has happened with Ukraine.”

“I believe our generation has an opportunity to put an end to this. Ukrainians are more united, more mobilized, more ready to fight than in 1918,” he said.

Zelensky at the Élysée Palace: a moment in geopolitics and in the coming era of a pivotal moment

In Paris at the time, I witnessed how Zelensky pulled up to the Élysée Palace in a modest Renault, while Putin motored in with an ostentatious armored limousine. (The host, French President Emmanuel Macron, hugged Putin but chose only to shake hands with Zelensky).

Zelensky said a prisoner swap with Russia was a first step towards ending the conflict in easternUkraine, which has claimed the lives of over 15,000 people, at the time.

Zelensky achieved what Putin wanted to achieve but failed to do, that is to mobilize support domestically with a patriotic war in order to distract from his failures at home. In Putin’s mind, to be shown up by a mere ‘decadent’ comedian must be excruciatingly painful for him,” New York-based geopolitical and business analyst Michael Popow told me.

Yevhen Hlibovytsky, former political journalist and founder of the Kyiv-based think said that after being bullied by Putin, he knew what he needed to do.

The leader who was offered a ride out of the US as Russia launched its invasion quipped that he was not looking for a ride.

It is perhaps easy to forget that Zelensky honed his political muscles earlier in his career standing up to another bully in 2019 – then-US President Donald Trump, who tried to bamboozle the novice politician in the quid pro quo scandal.

Amid the fog of war, it all seems a long, long way since the heady campaign celebration in a repurposed Kyiv nightclub where a fresh-faced Zelensky thanked his supporters for a landslide victory. He stood on stage with confetti in his hands and stared in disbelief as he defeated Petro Poroshenko.

Zelensky has a strong influence on the world and there are signs that may be waning. For example, last week, in what analysts called a pivotal moment in geopolitics, the G7 imposed a $60 a barrel price cap on Russian crude – despite pleas from Zelensky that it should have been set at $30 in order to inflict more pain on the Kremlin.

The Zelensky Brand: From Putin to the World During World War II: The Nightly Address of the Ukrainian Prime Minister at the London Eye

Many people of his previous professional life are in his bubble. In April, the press conference held on the platform of a metro station in the midst of the war featured perfect lighting and camera angles to emphasize a wartime setting.

I remember the solace his nightly televised addresses brought in the midst of the air raid sirens and explosions, as well as his skills as comforter in chief.

Beyond the man himself, there is Zelensky the brand. It’s almost impossible these days to dissociate the Ukrainian leader from his olive green t-shirts; worn when meeting everyone from Vogue journalists to military commanders and world leaders.

She said that he is more comfortable on camera than Putin, both as an actor and a digital native. Both of them want to come across as personable and accessible, but Zelensky is doing a better job balancing authority with accessibility.

Zelenska has shown she can be a good cousin in international fora when she travels to where her husband can’t. She met with King Charles during a visit to a refugee assistance center at the Holy Family Cathedral in London. (Curiously, TIME magazine did not include Zelenska on the cover montage and gave only a passing reference in the supporting text).

Zelensky said in his nightly address that when the world is truly united it is the world not the aggressor that determines how events develop.

War Against Ukraine Has Left Russia Isolated And Struturing With More Tumult Aheev: Five Years of War, Six Years Later

At the time, Putin insisted his forces were embarking on a “special military operation” — a term suggesting a limited campaign that would be over in a matter of weeks.

The post-Soviet period that followed the fall of the Soviet Union was a time of financial integration with the West and also dialogue with it.

The military and its leadership have been the subject of severe laws passed since February. 45% of people who have been imprisoned for protesting against the war are women, says a leading independent monitoring group.

There have been long prison sentences meted out to opposition voices for questioning the Russian army’s conduct or strategy.

Even Russia’s most revered human rights group, 2022’s Nobel Prize co-recipient Memorial, was forced to stop its activities over alleged violations of the foreign agents law.

The state claims the war in Ukraine reflects a broader attack on “traditional values.” Russia’s anti- LGBT laws have been vastly expanded by the state.

Disregards are targeted at the moment. Some of the new laws are still unenforced. But few doubt the measures are intended to crush wider dissent — should the moment arise.

Leading independent media outlets and a few vibrant, online investigative startups were forced to relocate or shut down when faced with “fake news” laws that violated the official government line.

Internet users are restricted as well. The banning of social media giants in March was done in America. Since the beginning of the conflict, more than 100,000 websites have been blocked by the internet regulators in the Kremlin.

Technical workarounds such as VPNs and Telegram still offer access to Russians seeking independent sources of information. But state media propaganda now blankets the airwaves favored by older Russians, with angry TV talk shows spreading conspiracies.

Source: https://www.npr.org/2022/12/31/1145981036/war-against-ukraine-has-left-russia-isolated-and-struggling-with-more-tumult-ahe

War against Ukraine has Left Russia Isolated and Stuck with More Turbulent Ahelion: “Russia has left Ukraine’s best enemy, but it hasn’t left”

Many government opponents, including activists and civil society workers left in the war’s early days due to fears of persecution.

Some countries that have absorbed Russia’s exodus think they will grow their economies even as the Russians’ presence remains a sensitive issue for some former Soviet republics.

Helped by Russian price controls, the ruble regained value. McDonald’s and several other brands went through a reincarnation under new names and Russian ownership. The government reported a 2.5% decline in the economy by the end of the year.

President Putin is betting that Europe will blink first when it comes to sanctions, as Europeans grow angry over soaring energy costs at home. It is likely that the pain in Europe will be made worse by his five-month ban on oil exports to countries that abide by the price cap.

There is no outward change in the government’s tone as regards Russia’s military campaign. The Defense ministry of Russia gives daily briefings about their successes. The president repeatedly assures that everything is in line with the plan.

Yet the sheer length of the war — with no immediate Russian victory in sight — suggests Russia vastly underestimated Ukrainians’ willingness to resist.

The true number of Russian losses – officially at just under 6,000 men – remains a highly taboo subject at home. Western estimates place those figures much higher.

Indeed, Russia’s invasion has — thus far — backfired in its primary aims: NATO looks set to expand towards Russia’s borders, with the addition of long-neutral states Finland and Sweden.

Longtime allies in Central Asia have criticized Russia’s actions out of concern for their own sovereignty, an affront that would have been unthinkable in Soviet times. They bought discounted Russian oil, but did not give full support to the military campaign.

Source: https://www.npr.org/2022/12/31/1145981036/war-against-ukraine-has-left-russia-isolated-and-struggling-with-more-tumult-ahe

Zelensky’s Year in the Life of the Russian Revolution: A Brief Address to Vladimir Putin in his December 19th State of the Nation Address

The state of the nation address was meant to be in April, but was repeatedly delayed and will not happen until next year. Putin’s annual “direct line” — a media event in which Putin fields questions from ordinary Russians — was canceled outright.

An annual December “big press conference” – a semi-staged affair that allows the Russian leader to handle fawning questions from mostly pro-Kremlin media – was similarly tabled until 2023.

The Kremlin had no explanation for the delays. Many suspect it might be that, after 10 months of war and no sign of victory in sight, the Russian leader has finally run out of good news to share.

President Zelensky said in his New Year’s Eve address that the year started on Feb. 24 with fear over Russia’s invasion but ended with hope for victory.

Standing in darkness with a Ukrainian flag rippling gently in the breeze behind him, Mr. Zelensky recounted in a videotaped speech many notable moments from the war — including the attack on a maternity hospital, the intense fighting at the Azovstal steel plant, the destruction of a Russian bridge to Crimea, the retaking of Kherson, the sinking of a Russian flagship — as the video cut to footage that underscored his words.

He said this year had struck his hearts according to a translation posted on his official website. They have cried out all the tears. Prayers have been said. 311 days. We have something to say about every minute.”

How have we united to defend our country? The role of the West in the fight against Russia’s nuclear saber-rattling

I had a strange desire to act through sports after my initial shock and fear of war. Athletes could help fight back against Russian propaganda. We have to tell the truth about how strong, kind and brave we are. How we have united to defend our country.

The world has rallied around Ukraine, Mr. Zelensky said, from the main squares of foreign cities and their halls of government to the top of Google’s search results.

And finally, to those who felt nuclear saber-rattling was an oxymoron in 2022 – that you could not casually threaten people with nukes as the destruction they brought was complete, for everyone on the planet.

Despite this palpable Russian decline, Europe is not welcoming in an era of greater security. Calls for greater defense spending are louder, and heeded, even if they come at a time when Russia, for decades the defining issue of European security, is revealing itself to be less threatening.

Russia has also met a West that, far from being divided and reticent, was instead happy to send some of its munitions to its eastern border. Western officials might also be surprised that Russia’s red lines appear to shift constantly, as Moscow realizes how limited its non-nuclear options are. None of this was supposed to happen. Europe now has something to do and prepare for.

Key is just how unexpectedly unified the West has been. Despite being split over Iraq, fractured over Syria, and partially unwilling to spend the 2% of GDP on security the United States long demanded of NATO members, Europe and the US have been speaking from the same script on Ukraine. At times, Washington may have been a bit more authoritarian than it is today. The shift is towards unity and not disparity. That was quite a surprise.

The prospect of a Russian defeat is in the broader picture: that it did not win quickly against an inferior adversary. The mouth pieces on state TV were talking about taking off the gloves after Kharkiv, as if they would not be exposing a fist that had already rotted. Revealed almost as a paper-tiger, the Russian military will struggle for decades to regain even a semblance of peer status with NATO. That is perhaps the wider damage for the Kremlin: the years of effort spent rebuilding Moscow’s reputation as a smart, asymmetrical foe with conventional forces to back it up have evaporated in about six months of mismanagement.

Moscow has a question, which no one wants to ask: if its supply chains for diesel fuel for tanks don’t function, how can they be certain that The Button will work? There is no greater danger for a nuclear power than to reveal its strategic missiles and retaliatory capability do not function.

America has done this before. During the Cuban Missile Crisis, the most dangerous nuclear confrontation so far, the Soviet Union’s position shifted in a matter of days, ultimately accepting an outcome that favored the West. Had “red lines” thinking been in vogue, America might well have accepted an inferior compromise that weakened its security and credibility.

NPR’s State of Ukraine: The Ukraine Crisis in the Light of Vlasov’s Most Popular News Source, U.S. Ambassador Oksana Markarova

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy made a surprise Europe tour, meeting leaders in London, Paris and Brussels, and reiterating his call for allies to send fighter jets to Ukraine.

The war in Ukraine wasn’t a topic of discussion in the State of the Union address by President Biden this year, despite the fact that Ukrainian Ambassador to the U.S. Oksana Markarova attended twice in a row.

The international team has evidence of the Russian President giving the go-ahead to supply anti-aircraft weapons to the rebels.

You can read past recaps here. For context and more in-depth stories, you can find more of NPR’s coverage here. Listen to NPR’s State of Ukraine which provides updates throughout the day.

A journalist, analyst, and consultant focuses on Eastern and Central European affairs. Follow him on Twitter @Crstn_Gherasim. The views expressed in this commentary are his own. View more opinion at CNN.

Ana Golea hopes that things will improve, that her parents will be safe, that Moldova can avoid being dragged into conflict but she acknowledges that for that to happen, the country needs help.

Since the power has been out in the small country of 2.6 million people, there have only been more frequent visits from the capital of the state of Romania.

Last month, Moldovan President Maia Sandu said border police had found missile debris near the village of Larga in Moldova’s north. It was not the first such incident – Moldovan police also found missile debris in December – and it left many to wonder what will happen if the next time luck runs out and a stray rocket hits closer to home.

For this scenario not to happen, Moldova will need help and support from the military in order to keep it from being perceived as a target by Russia. The country, one of the most poor in Europe, has almost none of the current military equipment.

Russia could connect with Odesa if it were to be Seizing the area, since it was closer to the borders of NATO and the EU.

There is a fear that Russia could use a new effort to reach Moldova, and there is reason to worry that other countries will be drawn into the war. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg has warned that Russia is trying to “freeze” the war before a spring assault, which many fear might bring Russian forces once again near Odesa.

During a visit to Chisinau earlier this spring, UN Secretary General António Guterres talked about the fragile position Moldova is in, noting that “Moldova is by far the country that has received the most refugees, as proportion of its own population.” He mentioned that the country finds itself on the “front line of preservation, peace and stability in the world.” But what does that mean, exactly?

Europe was under a lot of pressure in dealing with refugees. Out of more than 8 million Ukrainian refugees spread out throughout Europe and beyond, 108,000 may not seem like much, but the burden is substantial for a small country, and it alleviates pressure on others in the region.

Moldova’s woes have to do with internal factors as well. The current pro- EU government has struggled to curb corruption in the country, which has been there for decades. Moldova’s judicial shortcomings have been also highlighted in a recent Council of Europe report, with its judiciary system coming again under scrutiny following a disputed contest for the top job of chief prosecutor.

It is also losing people. According to World Bank statistics, Moldova has lost more than 12% of its population since 1991, as it has been hit hard by the demographic decline seen throughout many parts of post-communist Europe.

Due to Russian missile attacks, the Ukrainian government has stopped energy exports. In November, Russian attacks on Ukraine caused power blackouts in half of Moldova. All this has left Moldova with barely 10% of the electricity it can produce on its own.

Moldovan President Maia Sandu, plain spoken and charismatic, is leading a charm offensive; Sandu has met with Western leaders and gave an inspiring commencement speech at Harvard, helping to bring attention to Moldova’s plight. She knows there would be nothing worse forMoldova than not being heard on the world stage.

The Night of February 23: Putin War UKraine, Ukraine Wrap Opinions Ctpr and a Day in the Life of a Girl

It’s the evening of February 23, 2022. The CEO of a news site relaxes in a bath and candles. In Zaporizhzhia there is a young woman who plans on celebrating her husband’s birthday in the morning. A journalist in Moscow puts off his travel plans to Kyiv.

In a year, the war has claimed tens of thousands of lives and caused millions to be displaced. It has unleashed unfathomable atrocities, decimated cities, driven a global food and energy crisis and tested the resolve of western alliances.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/18/opinions/one-year-anniversary-putin-war-ukraine-russia-wrap-opinions-ctpr/index.html

The German-Russian War in Zaporizhzhia, Is It Really Wanna Be Involved in Crime?

February 23, 2022, was Zaporizhzhia. I went to bed thinking that I would celebrate my husband’s birthday the next day. Our life was getting better. My husband was running his own business. Our daughter had started school and made friends there. We were lucky to have arranged support services and found a special needs nursery for our son. I finally had time to work. I felt happy.

Completely exhausted, crushed and scared, we had to brace ourselves and come to terms with our forced displacement. I am eternally grateful to the people who helped us when we moved to a foreign land.

Thanks to the opportunities for Ukrainians provided by the Czech Republic, my husband got a job. I discovered special needs classes for my son. He has an assistant and attends an adaptation group for Ukrainian children. My daughter is studying in a Ukranian school and in a Czech school.

We awoke that morning to find that the invasion had begun. Twelve Russian writers, directors and cultural figures signed an open letter condemning the war. Soon it was published, and tens of thousands of Russian citizens added their signatures.

On the third day we, my husband and I, left Russia. I thought it was a moral obligation. I could no longer stay on the territory of the state that has become a fascist one.

We moved to Berlin. Thousands of Ukrainians per day had been arriving at the refugee camp next to the railway station, where my husband was a volunteer. And I started writing a new book. It begins like this.

“This book is a confession. I was guilty of not reading the signs earlier. I am responsible for Russia’s war against Ukraine. As are my contemporaries and our forebears. Regrettably, Russian culture is also to blame for making all these horrors possible.”

As I write, Russia has just fired dozens of Kalibr missiles towards several cities in Ukraine, including my adopted city of Odesa. Air raid sirens blare as we bolt for shelter into enclosed hallways. A pot of borscht is brought to me by my landlady.

If anything, I have been witnessing a repeat of the forced deportation of 2.5 million Ukrainians, as well as the stealing and destruction of Ukrainians museums, libraries, and churches, for the son of Ukrainian immigrants in Canada.

I have been haunted by the shadows in my father’s eye since the Russian invasion began and I relive the nightmare of my family members being shipped off to the soviet gulag. There were millions of Ukrainians who died in the famine of 1932-33.

My passport is a novel in stamps, one year into the full scale invasion. My life is split between London, where I teach Ukrainian literature, and Ukraine, where I get my lessons in courage.

My former classmates from Zaporizhzhia whom, based on our teenage habits, I expected to perish from addictions a long time ago, have volunteered to fight. My hairdresser, whom I expected to remain a sweet summer child, turned out to have fled on foot from the Russia-occupied town of Bucha through the forest with her mother, grandmother and five dogs.

The Kremlin and the West expected my capital would fall in three days, but it has stayed up despite the terrorism and energy problems associated with Russia. The Russians have been able to bring closer to eternal life by seeing so many stars over Kyiv.

The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace’s senior fellow is Andrei Kolesnikov. He is the author of several books on Russia’s political and social history. Origins of Russian Modernization and Egor Gaidar’s Legacy.”

It seems that since February 2022 we have experienced several eras. After a time of stagnant ratings, Putin received over 80% approval from the population, which was the first euphoric moment.

By aborting the past, he canceled the future. Those who were disoriented, preferred to support Putin: it is easier to live this way when your superiors decide everything for you, and you take for granted everything you are told by propaganda.

For me personally and my family, what happened was a catastrophe to which it is impossible to adapt. I was labeled a foreign agent by the authorities after commenting on the events, which made me think that I was living in an Orwellian anti-utopia.

I bathed my dog, cleaned the house, and lit candles on February 23. I have a cozy, one-bedroom apartment in a northern district of Kyiv. It was fun to take care of it. I loved the life I had. All of it – the small routines and the struggles. That night was the last time my life mattered.

The next morning my phone was buzzing from all the messages and missed calls. A red headline in all caps on the Kyiv Independent website read: “PUTIN DECLARES WAR ON UKRAINE.”

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/18/opinions/one-year-anniversary-putin-war-ukraine-russia-wrap-opinions-ctpr/index.html

A Soldier’s Journey During the First World War: Bringing Down the Dust in the Vicinity of a Lossy World

I remember trying to coordinate a small army of volunteers to strengthen the newsroom. My parents needed to organize buying supplies.

The life I knew was falling apart soon after, beginning with the smallest things. It no longer mattered what cup I used to drink my morning tea, or how I dressed, or whether or not I took a shower. Life itself no longer mattered, only the battle did.

Just a few weeks into the full-scale invasion it was already hard to remember the struggles, sorrows and joyful moments of the pre-war era. I remember being upset about my boyfriend, but I can’t relate anymore. My life didn’t change on February 24, it was stolen from me on that day.

I wasn’t concerned with my ambitions anymore. The only important goal was to raise our flag and show that we are fighting even under these circumstances.

I couldn’t enjoy my victories on the track. They were only possible because so many defenders had laid down their lives. There were messages from soldiers on the frontline. They were so happy to follow our achievements, and it was my primary motivation to continue my career.

Life values have changed. I enjoy seeing and talking to my family and friends like never before. I believe in our victory, and that all of us will return to our beloved country. We need the help of the world.

“I do think this is a critical moment,” Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told NPR. “The battlefield, as difficult as it is and as bloody as it is … is something that’s going to play a very major factor in both President [Volodymyr] Zelenskyy and President [Vladimir] Putin’s calculations as to whether or not to go to the negotiating table … and under what conditions.”

This is something that makes me wonder who will record all these crimes? The head of the Center for Civil Liberties told us. Because I’m a human rights lawyer, I have to document human pain in order for the Russians to be brought to justice.

Taiwan’s Foreign Minister is focusing on the problem of Ukraine: The crisis in the epoch of resolving the war”

The Foreign Minister of Taiwan said that his country is keeping an eye on China and learning from the conflict in Ukraine.

“They have expansionist motivation. They are expanding their sphere of influence. They want to increase their power. If they are not stopped, they will continue to march on.

Antony Blinken told the National Public Radio that there had been a successful attempt to avoid conflict between great powers. “This system, for all its imperfections, works. But now, it’s being challenged.”

Source: https://www.npr.org/2023/02/18/1157820509/ukraine-russia-war-anniversary

Natalia’s car was hit by Soviet forces during the first few days of World War II: The fate of Chechnya and Tatarstan

Natalia believes that the family car was hit by Russian forces during the first few days of the war. Her husband and nephew were killed in a car accident. Vova was hospitalized for months with seven bullets in his body after the attack.

The audio for this story was edited by two people. Additional editing and production help from Carol Klinger, Denise Couture and Nina Kravinsky. Hanna Palamarenko and Tanya Ustova provided reporting and translation help.

I should explain. Chechnya was one of the two new republics that claimed independence after the fall of the Soviet Union. (The other one was Tatarstan.) World leaders were not amused by the revelation that all of the Union Republics they had regarded as Administrative Units of Russia were actually real things. The West’s shock at this new geography meant Ichkeria was not likely to get the recognition it deserved.