Kyrsten Sinema, the Arizona Senate Minority Electrified, and the Challenges of Replacing Biden in the Senate

Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema decided to shake up the political world on Friday by becoming an independent. The Democrats still have 51 members even after the former democrat caucused with the party in the Senate. Now, instead of 49 Democrats and two independents within their ranks, the caucus has 48 Democrats and three independents.

She went on, “I’m hoping that Kyrsten’s decision to become an independent will spark other people to think long and hard about being overly attached to one party.”

“When I come to work each day, it’ll be the same,” Sinema said. I will hopefully serve on the same committees I have been serving on and continue to work well with my colleagues in the political parties.

Sinema has been in the middle of several significant bipartisan bills that were passed since Biden took office. She said that the record proved that her approach has been effective.

“Americans are now left behind by the national parties’ rigidity and stubbornness which has hardened in recent years,” Sinema wrote last week. Pressures in both parties can allow the loudest and the most extreme voices to determine party priorities and expectations of the rest of us falling in line.

The question for many Arizonans and Ms. Sinema’s fellow senators is whether or not she will seek a second term, which she neglected to clarify in her video announcement, op-ed article or news media interviews released on Friday morning. She keeps a tight circle of advisers, and since she doesn’t speak to the news media, there has been a lot of speculation about her motives.

She said she isn’t worried about anyone who doesn’t like this approach. “What I am worried about is continuing to do what’s right for my state. And there are folks who certainly don’t like my approach, we hear about it a lot. But the proof is in the pudding.”

Democratic Sen. Rep. Rhonda Sinema: Why she is a fierce advocate for the Arizona House filibuster and what she wants to do

Senate colleagues and Vice President Biden tried to change the rules for the Senate filibuster, but Manchin and Sinema were against it. The Arizona Democratic Party censured Sinema after the vote against filibuster changes.

While Sinema was blindsided by the surprise deal that Manchin cut with Schumer in July on major health care and energy legislation, she ultimately backed the smaller spending package that Biden signed into law before the election.

“I’ve been honored to lead historic efforts, from infrastructure, to gun violence prevention, to protecting religious liberty and helping LGBT families feel secure, to the CHIPs and science bill to the work we’ve done on veterans’ issues,” she told CNN. The list is long. I think the results speak for themselves. It’s OK if some people aren’t comfortable with that approach.”

Sinema’s announcement comes just days after Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock won reelection in Georgia, securing Democrats a 51st Senate seat that frees them from reliance on Vice President Kamala Harris’ tiebreaking vote.

In making her announcement, Sinema gave no hint of her future plans. It might be a starting point for a career move for a politician who is not tied to a political party.

Over the last two years, she and fellow moderate Democratic Sen. Joe Machin of West Virginia have been criticized as standing in the way of President Biden’s agenda by regularly holding up or objecting to parts of key legislation, as was the case with Democrats’ key budget package.

She said in Friday’s op-ed that her approach is rare in Washington and has upset partisans. The approach has delivered lasting results for Arizona.

She’s also well-liked on both sides, having built working relationships and personal friendships with political opponents for years. Sinema is a shrewd enough politician to know that voters back home want politicians who get things done, even if it means — shudder — working across the aisle.

She listed several areas where her position and priorities remained steadfast, for example that a woman’s health care decision shouldn’t be made by the doctor but by her and her family.

“If anyone previously supported me because they believed, contrary to my promise, that I would be a blindly loyal vote for a partisan agenda – or for those who believe our state should be represented by partisans who push divisive, negative politics, regardless of the impact on our state – then there are sure to be others vying for your support,” she added.

Axelrod’s announcement that she’s leaving the party: Implications for bipartisanship in Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer

David Axelrod, a senior contributor and host of “The Axe Files” on CNN, worked for President Barack Obama during the 2008 and 2012 presidential campaigns. The opinions expressed in this commentary are his own. View more opinion on CNN.

She knows how to make a difference, whether through her colorful and flamboyant attire or the political games she plays with her Democratic colleagues.

She did that again Friday, with her announcement that she is leaving the party and registering as an independent – disrupting the warm afterglow Senate Democrats were feeling following Sen. Raphael Warnock’s reelection victory in Georgia.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer depends on the votes of two other senators, both of whom caucus with Democrats but are also technically independents, including one who is an icon of the progressive left. Sinema now joins their ranks.

Sinema’s declaration seems to be more about hyperpartisanship than an institution- shifting change of position.

But laudable as those compromises were, there are few political incentives for bipartisanship in today’s highly polarized party politics, in which the nominating processes are dominated by more ideologically-driven voters.

Losing the Bear and Picking up the Buddha: Telling Ms. Sinema about the Arizona Congressional Betrayal in 2021

Sinema is not popular at all. Her disapproval rating in Arizona was below her approval rating, which was down to Democrats, independents and Republicans. Sinema’s overall approval stood at 25% to a disapproval rating of 58%. Sinema is firmly being more unpopular than popular according to the average of all the polling.

In her book “Unite and Conquer: How to build coalitions that win and last,” she said that she was unhappy with giving up shrill partisanship for a vaguely New Age ethos. There was a chapter called “Letting go of the Bear and Picking up the Buddha.” The bear represented fear and anger. Picking up the Buddha makes you stronger and more effective according to her. “To be your most fabulous political self, you’ll need to learn to recognize the bear and learn to let go of it in your work.”

When she theatrically turned a thumbs-down on a Senate vote in March 2021 to increase the minimum wage to $15 per hour, it was the last straw for her party’s base. She became a cause celebre with progressives when she avoided votes to participate in triathlons or as an intern at Sonoma County winery, and she did so to remove herself from the concerns of working-class Arizonans.

Activists from LUCHA confronted Ms.Sinema at Arizona State University in the fall of 2021. Activists forced Ms. Sinema into a bathroom and demanded that she explain why she didn’t push harder for a pathway to citizenship for eight million immigrants. Protesters said they took drastic action due to the fact that Ms. Sinema did not answer calls or hold town-hall meetings. Protesters have also chased her through airports and followed her into a high-priced fund-raising event at an upscale resort.

“We are not surprised that she would once again center herself,” said the director of LUCHA. This is a sad act and something to be ashamed of. She turned her back on those voters, who elected her as a democrat, making this one of the greatest betrayals of all time.

“I love that she’s going to be even freer now to just do the right thing,” said Tammy Caputi, a Scottsdale City Council member who is herself a political independent, adding that Ms. Sinema had long been leery of being “straitjacketed by partisan politics.”

Those weren’t quotes from her announcement Friday. Those were from one of her widely run 2018 Senate campaign ads (which is still at the top of her YouTube page).

She’s not the first senator to switch parties – Jim Jeffords of Vermont defected from the GOP 20-plus years ago, giving control of the Senate to Democrats.

Arlen Specter left the Republican Party in order to become a Democrat. The Democrats had a 60-vote majority that helped pass the Affordable Care Act, thanks to Al-Franken’s victory in Minnesota.

The electoral math structure was completely different in these circumstances. The left-wing Democratic challenger wouldn’t come because he is so progressive. Lieberman declared his third-party candidacy after the primary, so Republicans didn’t have time to find a well-known challenger. Republicans believed Lieberman, who was an ardent advocate of the Iraq War, was the best choice for Connecticut.

“He’s a shame to Democrats,” the organizer of the protest said. “I don’t even know why he’s running. He seems to want to get Republicans voting for him — what kind of strategy is that?”

Ironically, though she hopes her decision to remove the “D” from next to her name will bolster her brand back home, it may contribute to a Republican being elected senator from Arizona in 2024.

Practically speaking, the deregistration won’t change much on Capitol Hill. Because incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock won his runoff election in Georgia, Democrats still have firm control of the chamber, 50-49.

“Five decades ago, 48 House Democrats were less conservative than the most conservative Republicans, and 84 were less liberal than the most liberal Republicans,” the analysis states. But that zone of ideological overlap began to shrink….

There’s been no overlap between the least liberal Democrats and the least conservative Republicans in the House since 2002. In the Senate, the end of overlap came in 2004, when Democrat Zell Miller of Georgia retired. Ever since, the gaps between the least conservative Republicans and least liberal Democrats in both the House and Senate have widened – making it ever less likely that there’s any common ground to find.”

She voted with the party just over 90 percent of the time, which makes her the lowest of the other Democrats. A total of 6 senators have voted for the Democrats to a lesser degree.

It’s certainly good publicity for someone with low approval ratings – just 37% overall, including 41% of independents, approved of the job Sinema was doing, according to a bipartisan survey conducted by Impact Research and Fabrizio Ward.

Mark Kelly, a Democratic Arizona senator, appealed to the middle during his reelection campaign, by differentiating himself from the Biden administration’s border policies.

The Chaotic King Problem: Losing the Senate Map for a Purple State, Like the Alaska and Arizona Senators When Rubino Becomes More Conservative

She can buy herself a general election pass if she qualifies for the ballot as an independent and deregisters from the Democratic Party.

There’s a real threat for both the party and Sinema. Democrats’ chances at retaining the seat could be in trouble if they endorse someone wearing a team jersey. Her candidacy would open up a path for a republican to win with a very small majority.

But that simple math hides a more clouded picture for Democrats and for Sinema herself. Sinema’s interests are no longer necessarily the Democrats’ best interests in the next Congress, and the 2024 Senate map became even more complicated for Democrats with Sinema’s decision.

This leaves the King example. Unlike Sinema, King was not a deep blue or red state. There is only one problem for Sinema, that King is popular. He had previously won the governorship twice as an independent and has almost always sported high favorables.

One potential worrisome example for Democrats in a purple state (at least then) was the 2010 Florida Senate race. The more conservative Republican Marco Rubino was going to beat the more liberal Gov. Charlie Crist in the Republican primary and so he decided to run as an independent. Crist, who said he would caucus with the Democrats, split the Democratic vote with then Rep. Kendrick Meek, and Rubio cruised to a win.

Democrats have a chance, I should tell you that. The Alaska Senate race in 1968 featured Democrats Mike Gravel and Ernest Gruening, who were write-in candidates. Gravel won that state, which Nixon also won, by a few points.

Arizona Republicans may be able to nominate a candidate that burns out. They just lost every major statewide race in 2022 because of who they nominated.

When Sinema decided to run in the general election without any party backing, she could find herself just like Gruening, who was defeated in the 1968 New York Senate race when she had no party support.

The Democrats have a difficult map going into the year 2024. Depending on whether the Democrats win the presidency (and have a Democratic vice president who can break Senate ties), they can afford to lose zero to one Senate seats and maintain a majority.

The vast majority, 23 of the 34, senators up for reelection in 2024 caucus with the Democrats. Donald Trump won at least one state. This includes Arizona.

Voto Latino: Why Democrats Can’t Support the Censure of Má’enia. The Arizona Democratic Party Needs a Democratic Senator

When asked on Sunday if he would back a Democratic challenge to Sinema, the Senator from Vermont said, “I support progressive candidates all over this country.”

Jon Gabriel is an opinion contributor to The Arizona Republic and editor in chief of Ricochet.com. Follow him on Twitter at @ExJon. The views expressed here are his own. CNN has more opinion.

And earlier this year, the Arizona Democratic Party voted to censure Sinema, with party Chair Raquel Terán insisting it was “a result of her failure to do whatever it takes to ensure the health of our democracy.”

“Sinema’s actions directly undermine and suppress the right and wellbeing of Latinos that elected her into office,” Voto Latino said as it kicked off its “Adiós Sinema” campaign.

The organization’s effort began at the same time Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego of Arizona reportedly met with some Sinema donors in New York, fueling speculation he might challenge her from the left.

In Arizona, the GOP has a large registration edge with nearly 34% of voters being independents, but that number is growing all the time according to the secretary of state. Democrats account for more than 30%.

The independence movement may have overtaken the other political parties to give Sinema a chance of success when she faces her electorate in four years.