The 2016 Florida Senate Race is Now: Senator Sherrod Brown, Tim Ryan, and Rob Casey are the Picks for the Democrat Party

Democrats defied the odds – and most political handicappers’ predictions – to keep control of the Senate, as CNN projected over the weekend, making the December runoff between Raphael Warnock and Herschel Walker in Georgia seemingly less important.

This cycle, 23 of the 34 seats up for grabs must be defended by the party. That means Republicans need a net gain of just one or two seats to retake the Senate, depending on which party wins the White House in 2024.

The party didn’t have to defend a single seat in a state that former President Donald Trump won in 2020 but in four years they will have to defend three seats where he won. Republicans, on the other hand, have no incumbents up in 2024 sitting in seats that Joe Biden won in 2020.

So far, of the Democratic incumbents in those three states above, only Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio has definitively said he’s in. Brown has demonstrated a unique knack for winning working-class voters, even as cultural factors start to outweigh economics. He won the race by seven points in the year before, and Representative Tim Ryan lost the race by a similar margin this year.

In Arizona, Sen. Sinema is the only senator who won with 50% of the vote and she could face a primary challenge from a congressman.

First elected to the House in 2016 before running successfully for the Senate two years later, Rosen began 2023 with more than $4.4 million in the bank, which should give her a strong fundraising head start on would-be challengers. Republicans came close to knocking off the Silver State’s other Democratic senator, Catherine Cortez Masto, last year in a difficult environment for Democrats, who lost the governor’s mansion but held on to several down-ballot offices.

The people who are senators. Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin, Debbie Stabenow of Michigan, and Bob Casey of Pennsylvania are all Democrats in states that are expected to be competitive at the presidential level.

The two best pickup opportunities for Democrats are in Florida and Texas. But after the shellacking that Democrats took in Florida last Tuesday, Sen. Rick Scott has to be feeling pretty confident. Ditto Texas Sen. John Cornyn after 2022 proved, again, that races in the state are still the Republicans’ to lose.

Sinema will not caucus with Republicans. She also said she won’t attend weekly Democratic Caucus meetings, but rarely does that now. She wrote in her post that she won’t be able to change what she is doing in the Senate because she is an independent.

“In a natural extension of my service since I was first elected to Congress, I have joined the growing numbers of Arizonans who reject party politics by declaring my independence from the broken partisan system in Washington and formally registering as an Arizona Independent,” she tweeted.

The Democrats will retain control of the Senate despite Sinema’s move, as they hold a 51-49 majority. That includes two independents who caucus with them, Sens. Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Angus King of Maine.

Over the last two years, Sinema’s bipartisan approach to legislating left many of her Democratic colleagues and her supporters in the Senate angry that they could not support her in the Senate where a single vote could derail a bill.

Over the last two years, she and fellow moderate Democratic Sen. Joe Machin of West Virginia have been criticized as standing in the way of President Biden’s agenda by regularly holding up or objecting to parts of key legislation, as was the case with Democrats’ key budget package.

“My approach is rare in Washington and has upset partisans in both parties,” she acknowledged in Friday’s op-ed. “It is also an approach that has delivered lasting results for Arizona.”

The legislation Sinema passed with colleagues on both sides of the aisle was related to critical infrastructure, as well as economic competitiveness, water issues, veterans’ benefits, marriage access for latino Americans, and gun safety.

And she named several areas in which her position and priorities remain steadfast — for example, that “a woman’s health care decision should be between her, her doctor and her family” and her work to “secure the southern border, ensure fair and humane treatment for migrants and permanently protect ‘Dreamers.’

If anyone used to support me because they believed I would vote for a partisan agenda or for people who think our state shouldn’t be represented by partisans who push divisive, negative politics regardless of impact, then there aren’t any anymore.

Sinema will be up for reelection in ten years. She told Poilitico that she was not talking about a second Senate term at the moment.

The president of Senate Majority PAC said some of the noise on their side suggests they haven’t learned a lot yet. “There’s plenty of things for them to be nervous about.”

Where Does the Senate Map Stand Toward the 2020 Democratic Reionization? A Report from the Massachusetts Senator, Joe Dolan, and the Cleveland Guardians

Just as they did in the 2022 race for the state’s other Senate seat, Republicans could face a crowded field of candidates. The state senator, whose family owns a baseball team, placed third in the GOP Senate primary last year. Other possible candidates include Secretary of State Frank LaRose, Attorney General Dave Yost, Representative Warren Davidson and businessmanBernie Moreno who dropped out of the Senate primary.

Dolan, whose family owns the Cleveland Guardians, is already exploring the boundaries of what constitutes acceptable criticism of Trump. He wrote an email to Republican county chairs in Ohio that said that what they had seen nationally convinced them the country was ready for substantive candidates, not personality and election deniers. He would support Trump if he became the nominee.

Then there’s Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia, who sounds intrigued by Sinema’s decision to become an independent. Manchin said that he doesn’t know how you get more independent than him. “I look at all of these things, I’ve always looked at all of these things. But I have no intention of doing anything right now.”

Alex Mooney, a Republican congressman from Massachusetts, has run an ad against Manchin, who was re-elected last year. At least two others have shown interest: Attorney General Patrick Morrisey, who ran against Manchin in 2018, and Gov. Jim Justice, who is term-limited.

There are still 20 months to go until Election day, with many twists and turns to come. But based on CNN’s reporting, fundraising figures and historical data about how states and candidates have performed, here is where the Senate map stands at the start of the cycle.

The State of the State: Senate Race Rankings in Febrary Elections with a Flawless 2020 Sen. Sherrod Brown

The environment and mood of the country will affect contests up and down the ballot, as well as the central campaign issues. Voters are always focused on the state of the US economy. There are signs that culture issues, including parental rights, are poised to drive the debate within GOP primaries and could emerge as general election flashpoints.

Senate Republicans were unable to capitalize on what appeared to be a favorable midterm environment for them in 2022, in part because of flawed candidates, several of whom were elevated by Trump. The committee could get involved in the primary if it means avoiding nominees that would hurt the party in the election, according to Steve Daines and other Republicans.

Three-term Ohio Senator, Sherrod Brown, will be running for reelection in four years. Brown is the only Democrat to win a nonjudicial statewide race in Ohio over the past decade, demonstrating a measure of political resiliency in a GOP-trending state. Trump carried Ohio by 8 points in both 2020 and 2016. Yet Brown still managed to notch a nearly 7-point win in 2018, albeit against a relatively weak GOP challenger in then-Rep. Jim Renacci.

As Brown gears up for a battle in the Buckeye State, his campaign has $3.4 million in the bank.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/13/politics/senate-race-rankings-february-elections/index.html

Trump vs. Gallagher: A Lesson for the Wolverine State GOP after Sherpa’s Candidate 2016

With progressives disgruntled with the moderate first-term senator for being an obstacle to parts of Biden’s agenda in the closely divided chamber, Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego has already entered the race. If Sinema runs for a second term, national Democrats will be faced with a difficult decision, since she caucuses with her former party in the narrowly divided Senate. Democrats are happy to ignore potential messiness on the GOP side as long as it doesn’t hurt the eventual GOP nominee.

Republicans who lost bids for Senate are among those considering bids, including one who lost her governor’s race. According to CNN, Lake met with officials of the National Republican Senatorial Committee earlier this month, but has also held events in Iowa, which might suggest interest in a different federal office. If there’s been a lesson for the Arizona GOP over the last few years here, it’s that catering to the more extreme Trump base works well in the state’s late-summer primary but alienates voters in the general election. The Spanish-speaking Republican lawmaker was chosen to deliver the GOP rebuttal to the State of the Union address.

Republicans Adam Laxalt, the former state attorney general who lost to Cortez Masto last fall, and Purple Heart recipient Sam Brown, an Army veteran who lost to Laxalt in the 2022 Senate primary, could run again.

Wisconsin will once again be a battleground for the presidency in 2020 after voters narrowly favored Trump and Biden in the past. Baldwin has pushed for stronger “Buy America” policies in legislation such as the bipartisan infrastructure package enacted in 2021, which she’d be likely to tout on the campaign trail. She began the year with more than 3 million in the bank and hasn’t formally announced her reelection plans.

One of the most high-profile Republican challengers is Mike Gallagher, who was first elected in 2016: a Marine veteran. The Supreme Court seat will go to the voters in April, which could have a significant impact on the makeup of the court. New district lines could push some GOP members of Wisconsin’s House delegation to run for Senate.

The likelihood of a strong Democratic recruit running in the Wolverine State moves this contest slightly lower on the list of seats most likely to flip, even though an open seat would typically cost Democrats more money and be harder to defend. Possible Republican candidates include newly elected Rep. John James, who has lost two successive Senate races, and former Rep. Peter Meijer, who lost a 2022 primary. Meijer’s 2021 vote to impeach Trump after the January 6 insurrection, however, could make it more challenging for him to win a GOP primary.

The senator is from a politically influential family in Pennsylvania and was first elected to the Senate in 2006. Unlike his father, a two-term governor and leader in the anti-abortion movement, the younger Casey typically votes in favor of abortion rights even if he opposes the procedure personally. He announced in January he’d been diagnosed with prostate cancer but has an “excellent prognosis.”

Pennsylvania Republicans had a rough year in 2022, losing both the Senate and governor’s races with Trump-backed nominees. Dave McCormick, who was a hedge fund executive and eventually lost out on the senate nomination after trying to embrace Trump, could be an attractive opponent for the GOP because of his wealth.

You’ll see a steep dropoff in competitiveness once you’re past the top eight races. In recent years, Florida has moved toward the Republicans. Gov. Ron DeSantis and Sen. Marco Rubio both scored commanding reelection victories last year. Democrat Val Demings was a top-tier recruit who raised gobs of money and still lost to Rubio by 16 points.

That said, GOP Sen. Rick Scott, a former Florida governor who is seeking a second term next year, has a history of razor-thin general election wins. And as Biden did last week during his post-State of the Union stop in Tampa, Democrats are sure to seize on the agenda Scott proposed last year during his tenure as head of the NRSC, which he later revised after it sparked blowback from some Republicans, including Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.

But with Democrats defending so much turf this cycle, it’s hard to see the party investing heavily in trying to flip a Senate seat in Florida during a presidential year, especially given the vast personal resources Scott can plow into his campaign. The names that are being considered as potential Democratic challengers are, in no way, endorsed by the former congressman.

In 2018, Democratic Rep. Beto O’Rourke generated national headlines and astronomical fundraising totals but still came up more than 2 points short against Texas Sen. Ted Cruz. Cruz is seen as a potential candidate for the presidency in 2024, but his focus is now on seeking a third term.

Beyond O’Rourke’s narrow loss, Texas has shown signs of moving toward Democrats, with Trump winning the state by less than 6 points in 2020 – the narrowest margin for the GOP since 1996. But Texas still a red state, as evidenced by Republican Gov. Greg Abbott’s double-digit reelection victory over O’Rourke last fall.