Moscow’s defeat in Lysychansk, Ukraine, ratcheted up by the Ukrainian debacle during Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Donbas

After the capture of a strategic rail hub and gateway to the eastern Donbas region, Ukrainian forces pushed eastward toward the city of Lysychansk, which Russia seized three months ago after bloody fighting. Any loss of territory in the Donbas undermines Mr. Putin’s objectives for the war he launched in February, which has focused on seizing and incorporating the region.

Two days after President Vladimir V. Putin held a grandiose ceremony to commemorate the incorporation of four Ukrainian territories into Russia, the debacle in the city — Lyman, a strategic railway hub in the eastern region of Donbas — ratcheted up pressure on a Russian leadership already facing withering criticism at home for its handling of the war and its conscription of up to 300,000 men into military service.

Russian forces in the last few days of their occupation were plagued by desertion, poor planning, and delayed arrival of reserves according to an article published Sunday by the Komsomolskaya Pravda.

Putin said that the West lied about wanting peace. “They are using Ukraine and its people to weaken and split Russia, because they were preparing for aggression.”

The timing couldn’t have been worse. The area where Lyman sits was annexed by Russia, as Putin was publicly declaring.

But the soldiers interviewed on the Sunday broadcast said they had been forced to retreat because they were fighting not only with Ukrainians, but with NATO soldiers.

The US-based think tank the Institute for the Study of War noted that Russian battlefield setbacks, coupled with the unease in Russian society over mobilization, “was fundamentally changing the Russian information space.” It has also included strong criticism from men of power such as Kadyrov who often criticize the policies of the government.

The broadcast seemed intended to convince Russians who have doubts about the war or feel anger over plans to call up as many as 300,000 civilians that any hardships they bear are to be blamed on a West that is bent on destroying Russia at all costs.

In a September interview with the father of a car bomb victim, the idea that Russia is fighting a broader campaign was repeated.

The Nord Stream gas line was damaged by underwater explosions last month and Mr. Putin and other European leaders accused Western countries of being involved in the sabotage.

He said that the West accuses them of blowing up the gasPipeline themselves. The war is unfolding on a scale and extent that we are not fully aware of. It is essential that we join this battle with the mortal enemy who will use all available means, including exploding gas lines.

But Russia will keep doing this because it works. Western leaders assure Russia that its work is done by explicitly referring to the fear of escalation, which it wants to stoke.

A fit of anger may be what Vladimir Putin is referring to with his latest display of vengeance. His indiscriminate hitting of Ukrainian civilians raises the possibility of a gruesome new turn in the war.

The disarray of its forces on the ground was what the Kremlin acknowledged, as they did not know what new borders they would claim. “In terms of the borders, we’re going to continue to consult with the population of these regions,” Mr. Putin’s spokesman, Dmitri S. Peskov, told reporters on Monday.

Asked by a reporter what factors could call for a new round of mobilization, Putin said: “There are no such factors today, we are not discussing them. I told you, 300,000 were called up as part of the mobilization. Let me repeat once again 150,000 (have been deployed to Ukraine). Combat units account for a little more than half of those.

Analysts in and outside the government doubt if the weapons that Mr. Putin is going to use are useful in advance of his objectives.

The primary utility, many U.S. officials say, would be as part of a last-ditch effort by Mr. Putin to halt the Ukrainian counteroffensive, by threatening to make parts of Ukraine uninhabitable. The officials had anonymity to describe some of the most sensitive discussions inside the administration.

The Russians could do it in a variety of ways. They could place a missile over the border in Russia or shoot a shell six inches wide from a gun in the Ukrainian countryside. The targets could be a Ukrainian military base or a small city. How much destruction — and lingering radiation — would result depends on factors including the size of the weapon and the winds. But even a small nuclear explosion could cause thousands of deaths and render a base or a downtown area uninhabitable for years.

STAVKY, Ukraine — Racing down a road with his men in pursuit of retreating Russian soldiers, a battalion commander came across an abandoned Russian armored vehicle, its engine still running. Inside there was a sniper rifle, rocket propelled grenades, helmets and belongings. The men were gone, but they were not present.

The commander, who uses the code name Swat, said that they dropped all personal care and helmets. “I think it was a special unit, but they were panicking. It was raining very hard, the road was very bad, and they dropped everything and moved.

More than 200 Ukrainian troops were killed and many more were wounded in heavy losses suffered by Russia’s soldiers in the eastern Ukrainian regions, according to Russia’s Defense Ministry. It said Russian forces had successfully targeted US-made equipment and brought down one MiG-29 fighter aircraft over Donetsk, as well as a number of drones.

The Cost of Chaos: A CNN Perspective on the Russian Autocracy and the Last Stand before the Russian Invasion of Afghanistan During the Second Ukrainian War

Peter Bergen is a national security analyst for CNN and a professor of practice at Arizona State University. The Cost of Chaos is a book written by Bergen. The views expressed in this commentary are his own. View more opinion on CNN.

On February 22 – just two days before Russia’s invasion – former US President Donald Trump, who has always fawned over Putin, publicly said that the Russian autocrat was “genius” and “savvy” for declaring two regions of eastern Ukraine independent and moving his troops there in a prelude to full-blown invasion.

He said in the Tuesday address that attempts to rewrite and remake world history are becoming increasingly aggressive, ultimately and obviously seeking to divide our society, take away our guiding lines and eventually weaken Russia.

He says that the war in Ukraine is based on his idea that Russia has always been part of the Soviet Union despite the fact that it became independent from the Soviet Union over three decades ago.

According to the book, “Afghan Crucible”, the Soviets were going to set up a puppet government in Afghanistan and get out of the country as soon as possible.

The US initially decided not to escalate its support for the Afghan resistance because of fears of a bigger conflict with the Soviet Union. It took until 1986 for the CIA to arm the Afghans with highly effective anti-aircraft Stinger missiles, which ended the Soviets’ total air superiority, eventually forcing them to withdraw from Afghanistan three years later.

The war in Ukraine entered 2023 with its deadliest attack yet on Russian troops – and an attempt by Moscow to shift the bulk of blame onto its own dead soldiers.

This is the time in the conflict where the greatest needs are air and missile defense. Plans for the US to supply Ukraine with an advanced missile defense system are crucial to keeping the fight going.

The Russian Revolution and the Crimes of War: How Putin hid behind the troops, missiles, and walls of his residences and palaces

Putin is also surely aware that the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 was hastened by the withdrawal of Soviet forces from Afghanistan two years earlier.

Looking further back into the history books, he must also know that the Russian loss in the Russo-Japanese war in 1905 weakened the Romanov monarchy. Czar Nicholas II was feckless during the First World War and then precipitated the Russian Revolution in 1917. A lot of the Romanov family was killed by the Bolsheviks.

There is a lot of incentive for Putin to prolong the conflict as long as possible in order to allow the forces from the West to kick in. A long, cold winter in Europe, persistent inflation and higher interest rates leading to a recession on both sides of the Atlantic could mean irresistible pressure on already skeptical leaders to dial back on financial and military support.

Lawrence Freedman, the emeritus professor of war studies at King’s College London explains in his just-published book “Command: The Politics of Military Operations from Korea to Ukraine” how Putin plunged his countrymen into the Ukrainian morass.

Russia has seen some criticism of the brass running the war. Within limits, of course: Criticizing the war itself or Russia’s commander-in-chief is off limits, but those responsible for carrying out the President’s orders are fair game.

The head of the defense committee in Russia’s State Duma demanded that officials cease lying in recent interviews with Russian anti-Establishment activist Vladimir solovyov.

The Ministry of Defence was evading the truth about cross-border strikes by the Ukrainian army in the Russian regions.

Zelensky said that the Russian leader was hiding behind the troops, missiles, and the walls of his residences and palaces. “He hides behind you and burns your country and your future. No one will ever forgive you for terror,” Zelensky emphasized.

near the border with Ukraine is Valuyki. Kyiv has generally adopted a neither-confirm-nor-deny stance when it comes to striking Russian targets across the border.

The Russian Campaign of War: Blame Vladimir Putin for the Lyman Debacle and the Use of Nuclear Weapons in the U.S.

Boris Rozhin, who also blogs about the war effort under the nickname Colonelcassad, said that “incompetence and an inability to grasp the experience of war continue to be a serious problem.”

But after Russia’s retreat from the strategic Ukrainian city of Lyman, Kadyrov has been a lot less shy about naming names when it comes to blaming Russian commanders.

Writing on Telegram, Kadyrov personally blamed Colonel-General Aleksandr Lapin, the commander of Russia’s Central Military District, for the debacle, accusing him of moving his headquarters away from his subordinates and failing to adequately provide for his troops.

“The Russian information space has significantly deviated from the narratives preferred by the Kremlin and the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) that things are generally under control,” ISW noted in its recent analysis.

Putinism is a kind of patriotism called the Great Patriotic War, which was during World War II. And those in Russia’s party of war often speak admiringly of the brutal tactics employed by the Red Army to fight Hitler’s Wehrmacht, including the use of punishment battalions – sending soldiers accused of desertion, cowardice or wavering against German positions as cannon fodder – and the use of summary execution to halt unauthorized retreats.

The Chechen leader has called for Russia to take more drastic measures including the use of low-yield nuclear weapons after recent setbacks. The praise from Kadyrov is significant, perhaps as he himself is notorious for crushing all dissent.

If it were my will, I would use martial law in the country and use any weapon because we are at war with the whole NATO bloc, said Kadyrov.

For weeks now, Mr. Biden’s aides have been debating whether there might be an analogous understanding, a way for the wounded Russian leader to find an out. They were aware that secrecy might be the key to getting a successful exit and avoiding a scenario in which Mr. Putin reaches for his nuclear weapons. The White House press secretary said on Friday that Vice President Biden had no new intel regarding the use of nuclear weapons and she saw no indications that the Russians were planning to use them.

He used the Cuban Missile Crisis as an example in his comments at the New York fund-raiser. 60 years ago this month, President John F. Kennedy and Soviet premier Nikita Khrushchev struck a secret bargain to remove American missiles from Turkey.

With that deal, which came to light only later, a disaster that could have killed tens of millions of Americans and untold numbers of Soviet citizens was averted.

The Damaged Dnipro Bridge in Kiev During the Monday Night Attacks on the Kiev-Novikov Bridge as a Retribution for Putin’s Invasion

The peace prize was awarded on the day that Russia invaded Ukraine and that the president of Russia was given a rebuke by the award of the peace prize.

At least ten homes and several apartment blocks were damaged by nearly 40 Russian rockets that hit the Dnipro River in the early hours of Monday. He said that further shelling on Friday evening killed one man and wounded another.

Klitschko said Ukrainian air defenses intercepted all 16 missiles fired at Kyiv, and that at least three areas of the city were damaged by debris. Three people were reported injured in Kyiv from falling debris after defensive missiles shot Russian-launched ones out of the sky.

CNN broadcasted a story in which Zelensky’s chief diplomatic adviser said that Ukrainians shot down 56 of the 84 missiles and drones that were fired at them by Russia in revenge for the bridge explosion.

Russia is struggling on the ground and has failed to achieve supremacy in the air, but Monday’s attacks may have achieved one goal – sending a signal of strength towards the growing list of Putin’s internal critics.

There were underground stations that were serving as shelters on Monday after the subway system was suspended. But the air raid alert in the city was lifted at midday, as rescue workers sought to pull people from the rubble caused by the strikes.

Demys Shmygal, Ukraine’s Prime Minister, said Monday that as of 11 a.m. local time, a total of 11 “crucial infrastructure facilities” in eight regions had been damaged.

Power disruptions had been instituted prior to the strikes to make sure the grid didn’t go down, according to the director of the Energy Industry Research Center. He added that, in spite of this, the result of the attacks Friday morning would be “unpleasant.”

The Security Council held an operational meeting on Monday, one day after Putin spoke of the explosions on the bridge as a terrorist attack and said the organizers were Ukrainian special services.

To add to Putin’s sense of humiliation, the bridge explosion came amid a surging Ukrainian counteroffensive that has seized key pockets of Russian-controlled territory, including in regions Putin recently annexed.

The Russian-appointed head of annexed Crimea, Sergey Aksyonov, said he had “good news” Monday, claiming that Russia’s approaches to what it calls its special military operation in Ukraine “have changed.”

“I have been saying from the first day of the special military operation that if such actions to destroy the enemy’s infrastructure had been taken every day, we would have finished everything in May and the Kyiv regime would have been defeated,” he added.

Also on Monday, a spokesperson for South of Ukraine’s Security and Defense Forces warned of a possible retaliatory Russian strike, referencing a similar incident earlier this month in the same region.

However, Ukraine’s civilians remain extremely vulnerable in the face of Russian air strikes. Dmitri Alperovitch calls this “the blackmail of energy by cutting off gas supplies, by shutting off electricity, by bombing electric substations all over Ukraine.” Putin’s strategy will inflict pain, he said. “If your country is in dire straits and you don’t have heat, you’re going to keep fighting even if you don’t have it, because you want your kids to live,” he said. I think he’s underestimated this front.

The new security package comes as Russia intensifies its attacks on civilian targets in Ukraine. Zelensky visited the White House last month and called for more assistance from western nations to defend against Russian aggression. He said the support was not “charity” but “an investment in the global security and democracy.”

“Again, Putin is massively terrorizing innocent civilians in Kyiv and other cities,” Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte said. The Netherlands condemns the acts. Putin does not seem to understand that the will of the Ukrainian people is unbreakable.”

The UN Secretary-General called the attacks unacceptable and civilians were paying the highest price.

CNN catches the moment of the biggest earthquake since 2014: The Donetsk area hit by massive air raid sirens as Ukraine becomes the first to be intentionally targeted by Russian forces

The office of the German Chancellor confirmed to CNN that the G7 will hold an emergency meeting via video conference on Tuesday and Zelensky said on his social media accounts that he would address that meeting.

Editor’s Note: Michael Bociurkiw (@WorldAffairsPro) is a global affairs analyst. He is a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council and a former spokesman for the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. He is a regular contributor to CNN Opinion. The opinions expressed in this commentary are his own. CNN has more opinion.

Even amid irrepressible jubilation here in Ukraine in the aftermath of a massive explosion that hit the hugely strategic and symbolic Kerch Straight bridge over the weekend, fears of retaliation by the Kremlin were never far away.

“At exactly 7 a.m. the (Ukrainians) subjected the center of Donetsk (city) to the most massive strike since 2014,” the Moscow-appointed mayor, Aleksey Kulemzin, posted on Telegram.

The area around my office was quiet between air raid sirens while there were reports that missiles and drones had been shot down. At this time of the day, nearby restaurants would be crowded with customers and chatter about upcoming weddings and parties.

Monday’s attacks also came just a few hours after Zaporizhzhia, a southeastern city close to the largest nuclear power plant in Europe, was hit by multiple strikes on apartment buildings, mostly while people slept. At least 17 people were killed and several dozens injured.

In an interview with CNN, Herman Halushchenko, the Energy Minister of Ukraine, said that around 30% of the energy infrastructure in his country was hit by Russian missiles. The minister told CNN that this was the “first time from the beginning of the war” that Russia has “dramatically targeted” energy infrastructure.

Residents bundled in winter coats, hats and scarves gathered in the underground stations as the sirens wailed. Their faces were illuminated by their phones as they scrolled through updates.

Indeed, millions of people in cities across Ukraine will be spending most of the day in bomb shelters, at the urging of officials, while businesses have been asked to shift work online as much as possible.

As many regions of Ukraine were beginning to come back to life, the attacks risk causing another blow to business confidence as many asylum seekers return home.

For Putin, the symbolism of the only bridge linking mainland Russia and a peninsula on the Black Sea cannot be overstated. That the attack took place a day after his 70th birthday (the timing prompted creative social media denizens to create a split-screen video of Marilyn Monroe singing ‘Happy Birthday, Mr President”) can be taken as an added blow to an aging autocrat whose ability to withstand shame and humiliation is probably nil.

dictators seem to like hardwiring newly claimed territory with record-breaking infrastructure projects. In 2018, Putin personally opened the Kerch bridge – Europe’s longest – by driving a truck across it. The world’s longest sea crossing bridge was inaugurated by the Chinese President after Beijing reclaimed Macau and Hong Kong. The $20 billion, 34-mile road bridge opened after about two years of delays.

The Homogeneous Explosion: What Have We Learned About Putin in the First Two Years of the Invasion? – The Implications for NATO and the West

The hilarious jokes about the explosion were visible on social media channels like a Christmas tree. People shared their jubilation through text messages.

It was also an act of selfish desperation: facing increasing criticism at home, including on state-controlled television, has placed Putin on unusually thin ice.

The new overall commander of the invasion was appointed as a result of growing setbacks. But there is little sign that Gen. Sergey Surovikin can lead his forces back onto the front foot before the end of the year, given the pace and cost of the Ukrainian counter-offensives.

What is crucially important now is for Washington and other allies to use urgent telephone diplomacy to urge China and India – which presumably still have some leverage over Putin – to resist the urge to use even more deadly weapons.

The causes of the problem are addressed by increasing air defense support and propping up the vital civilian infrastructure. Responding only in this way is playing Russia’s game by Russia’s rules, and telling Moscow that the West finds its way of warfare acceptable.

High tech defense systems are needed to protect the country. There’s a need to protect heating systems during the winter season.

The time has also come for the West to further isolate Russia with trade and travel restrictions – but for that to have sufficient impact, Turkey and Gulf states, which receive many Russian tourists, need to be pressured to come on board.

The Russian missile attack on civilians in Kiev during the first Ukrainian war: a warning from the U.S. to the Soviet Union and the new Russian general

The attacks snatched away the semblance of normality that city dwellers, who spent months earlier in the war in subways turned into air raid shelters, have managed to restore to their lives and raised fears of new strikes.

The world could see the message. Putin does not intend to be humiliated. He won’t admit defeat. He is prepared to kill and terrorise civilians in response to his string of battlefield reversals.

But the targets on Monday also had little military value and, if anything, served to reflect Putin’s need to find new targets because of his inability to inflict defeats on Ukraine on the battlefield.

These two headline packages alone could impact the course of the war. Russia’s most potent threat now is the constant bombardment of energy infrastructure. It is making winter colder and unbearable for some, plunging cities into darkness of up 12 hours a day and sometimes longer, in the hope of sapping high Ukrainian morale.

The attacks on civilians, which have killed at least fourteen people, caused new attention to the fact that the US and its allies are already sending billions of dollars of arms to make up for a proxy war with Russia.

Volodymyr Zelensky has sought missile systems from both the US and NATO. In a conversation with US President Joe Biden last Sunday, Zelensky thanked the US for its continued support and asked for more air defense help. He said that Russian missile terror has destroyed most of the energy infrastructure in the country.

John Kirby said that the National Security Council was in touch with the government of the country almost every day and that the United States was looking good on their requests. “We do the best we can in subsequent packages to meet those needs,” he told CNN’s Kate Bolduan.

Kirby couldn’t say if Putin was shifting from a losing battlefield war to a campaign of civilian pain and destruction that was already happening in recent days, but he suggested it was already in the works.

It was probably something they had been planning for a long time. Now that’s not to say that the explosion on the Crimea bridge might have accelerated some of their planning,” Kirby said.

An onslaught on civilians would be consistent with the resume of the new Russian general in charge of the war, Sergey Surovikin, who served in Syria and Chechnya. Russia is accused of committing serious human rights violations in both places as it bombarded civilian areas and demolished built-up districts.

Western concerns that Monday’s rush hour attacks in Ukraine were the beginning of another pivot in the conflict were underscored by French PresidentEmmanuel Macron.

“He was telegraphing about where he is going to go as we get into the winter. He is going to try to force the Ukrainian population to compromise, to give up territory, by going after this infrastructure,” Vindman said on CNN’s “New Day.”

“So imagine if we had modern equipment, we probably could raise the number of those drones and missiles downed and not kill innocent civilians or wound and injure Ukrainians,” Zhovkva said.

It’s hard to imagine any other country being permitted by the world to wage the kind of campaign Russia has in Ukraine (and in Syria before it); still less with an overt agenda of exterminating the Ukrainian people.

Everything that Putin has done to cause the breakdown of the nation he doesn’t believe has the right to exist has strengthened and unified it.

Olena Gnes was angry at the return to fear of Ukrainians from a new round of Russian terror, she told Anderson Cooper while live from her basement.

She said that this was just another terrorist tactic to cause panic, scare other countries or to show his own people that he is still a bloody tyrant.

I would like to thank everyone who helps Ukraine. We have made a lot of friends. We had to go through some terrible things, in order to understand that we have many good things. But so many people are doing real miracles for Ukraine.”

Russia massed tens of thousands of troops in Belarus before its February invasion and used Belarusian territory as a staging ground for its initial, unsuccessful assault on Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital. Moscow has hundreds of troops in the area, but the number is now expected to increase sharply.

After a meeting with the Russian president, the head of the military and security in Belarus said that there would be more than a thousand troops.

Mr. Lukashenko, who is also the leader of the country, said in comments that work had already started on the formation of a group of troops to fight NATO and Ukraine.

Any further Belarusian involvement in the war could also have a psychological impact, Puri suggested. Everyone in the West is focused on fighting one army, he said. Inside Russia, Belarus joining the invasion “would play into Putin’s narrative that this war is about reuniting the lands of ancient Rus states.”

Mr. Sannikov was deputy foreign minister under Mr. Lukashenko when he fled into exile during the early years of his rule.

Russia’s highest death toll since the war started more than 10 months ago, regardless of whether it was 400 or 89 men, came about because of the Ukrainian attack.

State television showed the suffering and also flaunted it on Monday. There was a display of smoke and carnage in central Kyiv, empty store shelves, and a long-range forecast for months of freezing temperatures.

Moscow is running thin on military weapons and staving off “desperation at many levels inside Russian society,” according to the head of the UK’s largest spy agency.

At his meeting, Putin discussed the mobilization of 300,000 reservists that he ordered in September to bolster forces in Ukraine. He said that most of the people are still undergoing training and that only about 150,000 have been deployed so far. Putin said there is no need for the Defense Ministry and the country to do that.

Russia launched a wave of deadly strikes across several Ukrainian cities on Monday, killing at least 19 people and damaging critical infrastructure.

Putin threatened the possibility of a nuclear revenge in September, following the announcement of an immediate military increase.

Fleming warned that any talk of nuclear weapons was very dangerous and that we needed to be careful about how we were talking about it.

“I would hope that we would see indicators if they started to go down that path. If they were to consider that, that would be a disaster, because many people have talked about it.

In a speech later Tuesday, Fleming will also say Russians are increasingly counting the cost of the invasion of Ukraine and are seeing “how badly” Putin “has misjudged the situation.”

His decision-making has been flawed because of little internal challenge. It is a high stakes strategy that is making errors in judgement. Fleming will speak at a security lecture in London that his gains are being reversed.

“They know their access to modern technologies and external influences will be drastically restricted. They are feeling the consequences of his war of choice, he will say.

Russia and the Air Defense Mission in the First Three Days of the First World War II: The Air Defense Inventory and the Violations of the Proton’s Security Strategy

The equation for Moscow is simple – a percentage of projectiles are bound to get through.

There are going to be shows of extreme outrage whenever the Russians bombard us with missiles because they don’t have enough precision weapons to maintain that sort of assault into the future.

The Pentagon’s view at the time was that of its weapons stocks, Russia was “running the lowest on cruise missiles, particularly air-launched cruise missiles,” but that Moscow still had more than 50% of its pre-war inventory.

The inventory was dispatched this week. Western officials say that Russia has recently used older and less precise KH-22 missiles in lieu of its original anti-ship weapon, despite still having large inventories. Weighing 5.5 tons, they are designed to take out aircraft carriers. Dozens of casualties were inflicted at a shopping mall in Kremenchuk in June.

The Russians have been trying to modify the air defense missile, known as the S-300, into an offensive weapon. They’re difficult to intercept due to their speed and have wreaked havoc in Zaporizhzhia and Mykolaiv. They are not accurate.

He said that this was the first time in the war that Russia has targeted energy infrastructure.

Jens Stoltenberg said on Tuesday that more systems would be needed for Ukrainians to stop missile attacks. This week, many missiles were shot down by the Ukrainian air defense systems, which were provided by NATO Allies. “But of course, as long as not all of them are shot down, of course there is a need for more.”

Video of the installation of a Yars intercontinental missile into a silo launcher in the Kaluga region was shared by the defense ministry.

It’s hard to estimate the proportion of Shahed drones being eliminated because so many are being used. Zelensky said he receives a message every 10 minutes about what is happening with Iranian Shaheds. But he also said the bulk of them were being shot down.

Toward a New Era of Air Defense: Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov, Secretary of State of Ukraine, and the Transition to Western Air Defense

At the meeting on Wednesday, a wish-list was presented byUkraine, which included missiles for their existing systems and a transition to Western-origin layers of air defense.

The system is widely considered one of the most capable long-range weapons to defend airspace against incoming ballistic and cruise missiles as well as some aircraft. Because of its long-range and high-altitude capability, it can potentially shoot down Russian missiles and aircraft far from their intended targets inside Ukraine.

Western systems are beginning to trickle in. Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said Tuesday that a “new era of air defense has begun” with the arrival of the first IRIS-T from Germany, and two units of the US National Advanced Surface-to-Air Missile System (NASAM) expected soon.

“This is only the beginning. The item on the agenda for this morning is air defense, which is important to us in regards to Ukraine. Feeling optimistic.”

But these are hardly off-the-shelf-items. It was important that the IRIS-T was made for Ukraine. Western governments do not have a lot of such systems. The large country of Ukraine is under a missile attack.

The Russians are playing for the whistle in their road to war with Ukraine: A response to the Ukrainian prime minister’s comments on Donetsk and Kherson

General Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the senior military commander of the Ukrainians, thanked Poland on Tuesday for training an air defense battalion that had destroyed a number of Shaheeds.

He claimed Poland had given Ukraine the means to destroy drones. There was a report last month that the Polish government had bought advanced Israeli equipment and was transferring it to Ukraine.

Striking Donetsk. The Russian-installed mayor in the DONETSK region claims that Ukraine launched a serious attack in the area.

Not for the first time, the war is teetering towards an unpredictable new phase. Keir Giles, a senior consulting fellow at Chatham House, said that this may have been the fifth war they have observed.

With the sense widespread in Kyiv among officials and civilians that, short of nuclear intensification, Russia cannot do much more to Ukraine that it is not already doing, the allure of curtailing Moscow’s missile capabilities at home outweighs any escalatory concern.

Oleksii Hromov, a senior Ukrainian military official, said last week that Kyiv’s forces have recaptured some 120 settlements since late September as they advance in the Kharkiv, Donetsk and Kherson regions. The Ukrainians said on Wednesday that they had liberated another five settlements in Kherson.

In November, Russia’s military retreated from Kherson city, the only regional capital it had captured since the invasion began, in a major setback for Russian President Vladimir Putin. Since then, Russian forces have stationed themselves across the river from Kherson and regularly shell the city from there.

These counter-offensives have shifted the momentum of the war and disproved a suggestion, built up in the West and in Russia during the summer, that while Ukraine could stoutly defend territory, it lacked the ability to seize ground.

“The Russians are playing for the whistle – (hoping to) avoid a collapse in their frontline before the winter sets in,” Samir Puri, senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies and the author of “Russia’s Road to War with Ukraine,” told CNN.

“If they can get to Christmas with the frontline looking roughly as it is, that’s a huge success for the Russians given how botched this has been since February.”

Ukrainian troops are focused primarily on pushing Russian forces eastwards, having crossed the Oskil River in late September, with Moscow likely preparing to defend the cities of Starobilsk and Svatove in the Luhansk region, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Landing a major blow in Donbas would send another powerful signal, and Ukraine will be eager to improve on its gains before temperatures plummet on the battlefield, and the full impact of rising energy prices is felt around Europe.

Giles said, “there is an incentive for Ukraine to get things done quickly.” “The winter energy crisis in Europe, and energy infrastructure and power being destroyed in Ukraine itself, is always going to be a test of resilience for Ukraine and its Western backers.”

More than 50% of the country’s energy capacity was lost due to the Russian strikes on thermal and hydroelectric power plants, according to Ukrenergo.

Russia has limited supplies of precision weapons in this role and may affect Putin’s options to disrupt the Ukrainian counter-offensives.

Exactly how much weaponry and manpower each side has left in reserve will be crucial to determining how the momentum will shift in the coming weeks. Ukraine said it intercepted 18 cruise missiles on Tuesday and dozens more on Monday, but it is urging its Western allies for more equipment to repel any future attacks.

In terms of pure manpower, there would not be much of a difference because Russia has less than half a million active duty troops. But it would threaten another assault on Ukraine’s northern flank below the Belarusian border.

The reopening of the northern front is a new challenge for the country. It would provide Russia a new route into the Kharkiv oblast (region), which has been recaptured by Ukraine, should Putin prioritize an effort to reclaim that territory, he said.

Around 45% of Ukrainians said that they did not trust Zelensky to lead them into war, as Russian troops began to mass on the border. It was a rating likely influenced by him not keeping some of his campaign promises, especially failing to launch an effective fight against corruption in the judiciary.

Before a meeting of NATO defense ministers in Europe, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that Ukraine needed more systems to stop missile attacks.

Russia named its new overall commander for the war last Saturday after Ukraine regained more of its territory than the Russians did.

He was Commander-in-Chief of the Russian Air Force during the time when they caused mass devastation in the rebel-held areas of Syria.

The director of the Center for a New American Security said that the appointment of a hardline Russian is indicative of the rise of a lot of hardline voices inside Russia.

Russian President Vladimir Putin met with service personnel from the Russian army who were involved in operations in Syria.

Irisov, Surovikin’s former subordinate, left his five-year career in the armed forces after his time in Syria because his own political views conflicted with what he experienced. “Of course, you understand, who is right and who is wrong,” Irisov said. There was a lot of stuff that I witnessed.

On February 24, 2002, after the invasion of Ukrainian, the security service of the Russian Federation (known as the FSB) ordered the state-run news agency,TASS, to inform the public that they would be prosecuted if they didn’t execute the propaganda scheme.

From the beginning, it was obvious to me. The war will lead to the collapse of Russia, and it will be a terrible tragedy for Ukrainians.

A World War II: The Syrian Regime of Sergei Sergei Irisov and the Report on his 2004 alleged murder spree

He worked in aviation safety and air traffic control while stationed at Latakia air base in Syria. He spoke to some high-ranking officers during some missions while he was there.

“He made a lot of people very angry – they hated him,” Irisov said, describing how the “direct” and “straight” general was disliked at headquarters because of the way he tried to implement his infantry experience into the air force.

Irisov says he understands Surovikin had strong connections with Kremlin-approved private military company the Wagner group​, which has operated in Syria.

Russian media reported that in 2004, he berated a subordinate so much that he took his own life.

The book says that during the failed attempt to oust Gorbachev, soldiers under his command killed three protesters, resulting in him spending at least six months in prison.

The report states that he may be responsible for over a hundred air and ground attacks on civilians in violation of the laws of war. ​The attacks killed at least 1,600 ​civilians and forced the displacement of an estimated 1.4 million people, according to HRW​​, which cites UN figures.

On December 28, last year, Putin and the Prime Minister hosted a ceremony to give state awards to military personnel who fought in Syria.

In February this year, Surovikin was sanctioned by the European Union in his capacity as head of the Aerospace Forces “for actively supporting and implementing actions and policies that undermine and threaten the territorial integrity, sovereignty and independence of Ukraine as well as the stability or security in Ukraine.”

But Clark, from the ISW, suggests the general’s promotion is “more of a framing thing to inject new blood into the Russian command system” and “put on this tough nationalist face.”

His appointment “got widespread praise from various Russian military bloggers as well as Yevgeny (Prigozhin), who’s the financier of the Wagner Group,” Clark said.

He thinks the current situation is a reflection of what transpired in April when Alexander Dvornikov was appointed overall commander of the operations.

“Similarly, he before then was a commander of one of the groupings of Russian forces and had sort of a master reputation in Syria much like Surovikin for brutality, earning this sort of name of the ‘butcher of Aleppo,’” Clark said.

If Putin decides that he is also not up to the task, there isn’t a good Kremlin option. There aren’t many other senior Russian officers and it’s just going to lead to a further degradation of the Russian war effort.”

The army is degraded in quality and capability. Russia’s military force in eastern Europe has been altered over the course of the war due to many wounded or killed active duty personnel and the best equipment destroyed or captured. The Russian military leadership is unlikely to know with confidence how this undisciplined composite force will react when confronted with cold, exhausting combat conditions or rumors of Ukrainian assaults. In September, demoralized forces abandoned their positions and equipment in panic, as they had done in the past.

The Russian Defense Ministry said that the shootings were a terrorist attack, according to the state media outlets. It said the two gunmen were from a former Soviet nation and had fired on the soldiers during target practice at a firing range.

The State of Ukraine: a report from the United Nations High-Power Task Force on Oct. 12, 2001 & 11/9 (Korea)

NATO will hold nuclear deterrence exercises starting Monday. NATO has warned Russia not to use nuclear weapons on Ukraine but says the “Steadfast Noon” drills are a routine, annual training activity.

Russian agents detained eight people on Oct. 12 suspected of carrying out a large explosion on a bridge to Crimea, including Russian, Ukrainian and Armenian citizens.

The United Nations General Assembly roundly condemned Russia’s move to illegally annex four regions of Ukraine. In the Oct. 13 session, four countries voted alongside Russia, but 143 voted in favor of Ukraine’s resolution, while 35 abstained.

11 people died and 15 were injured when two men opened fire on Russian troops preparing to deploy to Ukraine, according to Russia’s Defense Ministry.

Russian troops began arriving in Belarus Oct. 15, which Minsk said were the first convoys of almost 9,000 service members expected as part of a “regional grouping” of forces allegedly to protect Belarus from threats at the border from Ukraine and the West.

You can read past recaps here. You can find more of NPR’s coverage here. Listen and subscribe to NPR for the latest State of Ukraine updates.

“Even if President (Volodymyr) Zelenskyy reached some conclusion that maybe we should, to stop the punishment, we should negotiate. I don’t think he can do that anymore because of the conviction of the Ukrainian people.”

David Petraeus: The Russian-Russian War for the Ukraine and the United States… Does Putin Really Want to Stay in Ukraine?

Petraeus spoke at an annual conference in Sea Island, Ga., run by The Cipher Brief, which brings together members of the national security community — current and former — to stand back and look at the big picture on global security.

A top Ukrainian official, Andriy Yermak, the chief of staff to President Zelenskyy, told the conference the conflict needs to end with a Ukrainian victory on the battlefield.

But Paul Kolbe, a former CIA officer who runs the Intelligence Project at Harvard’s Kennedy School, says the Russian leader is not looking for a way out of the conflict. He says that it’s the opposite. “Putin’s muscle memory when he runs into an obstacle is to escalate,” said Kolbe. “There’s a lot of tricks he can still pull out to try to undermine morale in Ukraine and in the West.”

This annexation is a huge deal. Putin is effectively betting his presidency on staying in Ukraine, says Dmitri Alperovitch, who runs the think tank Silverado Policy Accelerator.

“That is a metaphor for a bridge burning,” said Alperovitch. “What this means is that this war is likely to continue for many, many months, potentially many years, as long as he’s in power and as long as he has the resources to continue fighting.”

The fast approaching winter will slow down the war, but it’s not expected to stop it. The Ukrainians are more likely to win on the battlefield because of the weather, says David Petraeus. The Ukrainians can get warmed up and get a bowl of soup when they knock on the door. And of course, they’re welcomed as liberators, whereas the Russian occupiers, the Ukrainians are trying to kill them,” he said.

At the Georgia conference, there was no indication that the war was coming to an end. “A lot of wars end with a negotiated solution, but I don’t see any prospects of talks in the near term,” Paul Kolbe, the former CIA official said.

This war began with a Russian invasion in 2014, he noted, and is now as intense as it’s ever been. Myre is an NPR correspondent. Follow him on his verified social media accounts.

A Red line in the Sand: The Sobyanin Effect of the Ukrainian War on the State of the Art and the Putin-Supremum Afterglow

The mayor of Moscow, Sergey Sobyanin, appeared to take pains to give reassurances. “At present, no measures are being introduced to limit the normal rhythm of the city’s life,” Mr. Sobyanin wrote on his Telegram channel.

The governors of the four regions that were given power by Mr. Putin said they would not impose restriction on entry or exit.

But many Russians are sure to see a warning message in the martial law imposed in Ukraine, the first time that Moscow has declared martial law since World War II, analysts say.

“People are worried that they will soon close the borders, and the siloviki” — the strong men close to Mr. Putin in the Kremlin — “will do what they want,” Ms. Stanovaya said.

In a signal that the faltering invasion of Ukraine has eroded Moscow’s influence elsewhere, Russia has recently redeployed critical military hardware and troops from Syria, according to three senior officials based in the Middle East.

How long Putin can insulate himself and prevent the blame from turning on himself is the key question in the wake of Makiivka. Ukrainian forces have no intentions of easing the pressure on Russians in the east or south of their country as the war enters a new year.

A Red line in the sand is a book by David A. Andelman and he is a writer for CNN and a contributor to the French Legion of Honor. He previously was a correspondent for CBS News in Europe and Asia. The views expressed in this commentary are his own. View more opinion at CNN.

First, he’s seeking to distract his nation from the blindingly obvious, namely that he is losing badly on the battlefield and utterly failing to achieve even the vastly scaled back objectives of his invasion.

The European Union is Prolonging War, but How Well Will It Be? French President and European Union Leaders in the Early Stages of a Cold War

This ability to keep going depends on a host of variables – ranging from the availability of critical and affordable energy supplies for the coming winter, to the popular will across a broad range of nations with often conflicting priorities.

In the early hours of Friday, EU powers agreed on a plan to control energy prices that have been surging on the heels of embargoes on Russian imports and the Kremlin cutting natural gas supplies.

There is an emergency cap on the benchmark European gas trading hub, the Dutch Title Transfer Facility, and permission for EU gas companies to create agaist to buy gas in international markets.

While he said that there was a clear mandate for the European Commission to start working on a gas cap mechanism, France’s President gave up and conceded that it was only a question of when, not if.

Germany, the EU’s biggest economy, is skeptical of price caps. Energy ministers have to work out details with Germany, who is concerned that such caps would encourage higher consumption.

All of the divisions are part of Putin’s dream. The success of Europe from the Kremlin’s viewpoint will depend on the ability of Manifold forces in Europe.

France and Germany are at odds on a lot of these issues. The two leaders have decided to hold a conference call on Wednesday in an effort to reach some agreement.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/25/opinions/putin-prolonge-war-ukraine-winter-andelman/index.html

Italy’s first woman prime minister, the left-right coalition, and the U.S. war on the war: a warning to the far-right

And now a new government has taken power in Italy. The post-fascist aura of her party has been removed by Giorgia Meloni, who was appointed Italy’s first woman prime minister on Saturday. One of her far-right coalition partners has expressed admiration for Putin.

At a meeting of his party’s loyalists, Berlusconi said that Putin sent him 20 bottles of water and a letter on his 86th birthday.

The other leading member of the ruling Italian coalition, Matteo Salvini, named Saturday as deputy prime minister, said during the campaign, “I would not want the sanctions [on Russia] to harm those who impose them more than those who are hit by them.”

Poland and Hungary, allies of the right in the past, are now at odds over the future of the EU, due to its liberal policies. Poland has taken deep offense at the pro-Putin sentiments of Hungary’s populist leader Viktor Orban.

This is quite difficult. McCarthy warned the Biden administration cannot expect a blank cheque from the new House of Representatives.

Meanwhile on Monday, the influential 30-member Congressional progressive caucus called on Biden to open talks with Russia on ending the conflict while its troops are still occupying vast stretches of the country and its missiles and drones are striking deep into the interior.

Hours later, caucus chair Mia Jacob, facing a firestorm of criticism, emailed reporters with a statement “clarifying” their remarks in support of Ukraine. The Secretary of State called the Ukrainian counterpart to talk about America’s support.

The US has provided $60 billion in aid since Biden took office, while only Republicans voted against the most recent aid package.

The West is trying to discourage countries from buying Russian oil by capping the amount they pay. There are indications that the efforts will cut into profits.

The report stated that Russian production of hypersonic missiles had ended due to lack of necessary semi-conductors. Plants that make anti-aircraft systems have stopped production, as has the ability of aircraft to be cannibalized for spare parts. The Soviet era ended more than 30 years ago.

A day before this report, the US announced seizure of all property of a top Russian procurement agent Yury Orekhov and his agencies “responsible for procuring US-origin technologies for Russian end-users…including advanced semiconductors and microprocessors.”

The Justice Department has charged companies and individuals for attempting to bring high-tech equipment into Russia in violation of sanctions.

The victims of the October 10 missile attack on a Ukrainian cybersecurity agency: A statement by the commander of the Ukrainian military on the situation at the front

Grisly videos filmed by Ukrainian drones showing Russian infantry being struck by artillery in poorly prepared positions have partly supported those assertions, as has reporting in Russian news media of mobilized soldiers telling relatives about high casualty rates. The location of the videos can’t be determined because they have not been independently verified.

Russian forces have tripled their intensity of attacks on parts of the front, according to a statement by the commander of the Ukrainian military. He did not say how long the attacks were taking place.

General Zaluzhnyi stated that they discussed the situation at the front. Ukrainian forces, he said he had told his U.S. colleague, were beating back the attacks, “thanks to the courage and skills of our warriors.”

The institute for the study of war said that the increase in infantry in the east had not resulted in Russia gaining new ground.

The institute said that if Russian forces waited until enough personnel had arrived to build a force large enough to overcome the Ukrainian defense they would have had more success.

With Russian and Ukrainian forces apparently preparing for battle, the remaining residents of the city have been stocking up on food and fuel to survive combat.

A number of Russian cyberattacks have hit various Ukrainian industries, and some of them have been linked to Russia’s military objectives. The kind of high impact hack that will take out power or transportation networks, has largely been missing.

“All the Ukrainian citizens are now living in these circumstances,” said Victor Zhora, a senior Ukrainian government cybersecurity official, referring to the blackouts and water shortages. “Imagine your ordinary day in the face of constant disruptions of power or water supply, mobile communication or everything combined.”

But officials tell CNN that Ukraine also deserves credit for its improved cyber defenses. In April, the Ukrainian government claimed to have prevented a hacking attempt by the same group that caused power disruptions in the country in 2015.

Four officials from one of Ukraine’s main cyber and communications agencies — the State Service of Special Communications and Information Protection (SSSCIP) — were killed October 10 in missile attacks, the agency said in a press release. The four officials did not have cybersecurity responsibilities, but their loss has weighed heavily on cybersecurity officials at the agency during another grim month of war.

Menon points out that his comments could be used to apply the NotPetya, a malicious software that was released by the GRU, five years earlier. He says that the goal is the same even though they are different in the details. “Demoralizing and punishing civilians.”

The Western official said that it wouldn’t be possible for Russia to measure the success in cyberspace by a single attack.

In 2017, as Russia’s hybrid war in eastern Ukraine continued, Russia’s military intelligence agency unleashed destructive malware known as NotPetya that wiped computer systems at companies across Ukraine before spreading around the world, according to the Justice Department and private investigators. The incident cost the global economy billions of dollars by disrupting shipping giant Maersk and other multinational firms.

That operation involved identifying widely used Ukrainian software, infiltrating it and injecting malicious code to weaponize it, said Matt Olney, director of threat intelligence and interdiction at Talos, Cisco’s threat intelligence unit.

The end product was effective, but all of that was just as effective. Sometimes you can’t just conjure opportunities because of the time it takes.

The case of Dnipro, the new front line of Ukraine, and the return of Russian Army forces in the aftermath of a Ukrainian naval bombardment

The deputy chairman of the sssspi.org called for Western governments to tighten restrictions on Russia’s access to software tools that could feed its hacking arsenal.

According to Tanel Sepp, Ambassador-at-large for cyber affairs, it may be the case that the Russians could turn to a new wave of cyberattacks.

“Our main goal is to isolate Russia on the international stage” as much as possible, Sepp said, adding that the former Soviet state has not communicated with Russia on cybersecurity issues in months.

The Dnipro has become the new front line in southern Ukraine, and officials there warned of continued danger from fighting in regions that have already endured months of Russian occupation.

The southern part of the city was hit with fire through the afternoon, stoking fears that the Russian Army would retaliate for the loss of the city with a bombardment on the eastern bank.

Mortar shells struck near the bridge, sending up puffs of smoke. Near the riverfront, incoming rounds rang out with thunderous, metallic booms. It wasn’t possible to assess what had happened.

The mines are dangerous: Russian forces are in the territory of Kherson city, Ukraine, and Mr. Zelensky is coming to the country

The mines are a significant danger. A family ran over a mine outside the city and four people were killed, including an 11-year-old. Railway workers were injured trying to restore service after lines were damaged. There are unconfirmed reports that at least four more children have been injured by mines in the region.

The deaths underscored the threats still remaining on the ground, even as Mr. Zelensky made a surprise visit to Kherson, a tangible sign of Ukraine’s soaring morale.

Hundreds of people gathered in the city’s main square to celebrate after Mr. Zelensky said that he was going to come to all of the country.

Russian forces continued to fire from across the river on towns and villages newly recaptured by Ukrainian forces, according to the Ukrainian military’s southern command. Beryslav is a town just north of a critical dam, and it was hit by two Russian missiles. It was not immediately known if there were any casualties.

“Occupants rob local people and exchange stuff for samogon,” or homemade vodka, said one resident, Tatiana, who communicated via a secure messaging app from Oleshky, a town across the river from Kherson City. “Then they get drunk and even more aggressive. We are so scared here.” She asked that her name not be published.

Ivan, 45, a Russian, wrote in a text message that Russians were roaming around and found empty houses. He lives south of Kherson city in Skadovsk, and asked that his first and last names not be used because of his safety concerns. “We try to connect with the owners and to arrange for someone local to stay in their place. So that it is not abandoned and Russians don’t take it.”

One photo shared by authorities in the Kyiv region showed the fragments of a missile in the snow, which it said the air defense system had downed. Kyiv city’s military administration claimed that 37 of 40 missiles targeted at the capital were intercepted.

One thing is clear, regardless of the circumstances of the missile. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said that Russia bears ultimate responsibility for the illegal war against Ukranian.

His forces have planted mines in vast stretches of territory in Kherson from which they’ve recently withdrawn – much as the Khmer Rouge did in Cambodia stretching back to the 1970s. Indeed, Cambodian de-mining experts have even been called in to assist with the herculean task facing Ukraine in 2022. Evidence of atrocities and torture were also left behind by Russian armies, reminiscent of the Khmer Rouge.

That said, a growing number of Russian soldiers have rebelled at what they have been asked to do and refused to fight. Amid plummeting morale, the UK’s Defense Ministry believes Russian troops may be prepared to shoot retreating or deserting soldiers.

A hotline and Telegram channel was launched by a Ukrainian military intelligence project called “I want to live,” designed to help Russian soldiers who were interested in defecting.

Diplomatically, Putin finds himself increasingly isolated on the world stage. He was the only head of state to stay away from a session of the G20, which Zelensky dubbed the “G19.” Though Putin once lusted after a return to the G7 (known as the G8 before he was ousted after his seizure of Crimea), inclusion now seems but a distant dream. The ban on 100 Canadians, including Jim Carrey, from entering Russia made a comparison with North Korea even more striking.

It was a good way to get rid of people who were traitors and spies. Russian officials have suggested stripping those who left the country of their passports. Yet there are questions whether Russia can thrive without many of its best and brightest.

The leading Russian journalist, who has settled in Berlin, told me last week that while he hoped this wasn’t true, he was ready to accept the reality that he may never be able to return to his homeland.

Russian Nuclear Forces in the Early Stages of the G20: A Case for a Joint French-German Project for the FAIR System

The country of material resources is in danger as the West tries to undermine them by not using Russian oil and natural gas. “We have understood and learnt our lesson that it was an unhealthy and unsustainable dependency, and we want reliable and forward-looking connections,” Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission told the G20 on Tuesday.

Moreover, Putin’s dream that this conflict, along with the enormous burden it has proven to be on Western countries, would only drive further wedges into the Western alliance are proving unfulfilled. The long-stalled joint French-German project for a next-generation jet fighter at the heart of the Future Combat Air System was believed to be beginning to move forward on Monday.

“So what, Russians use cluster munitions against us,” a Ukrainian official told CNN. The US is concerned with damage done to other things. We are going to use them against Russian troops, not against the Russian population.”

Senior Biden administration officials have been fielding this request for months and have not rejected it outright, CNN has learned, a detail that has not been previously reported.

Large areas that can fail to explode on impact and also pose a long-term risk to anyone who encounters them, is one of the reasons why cluster munitions are used. The dozens of submunitions which explode at once across a large area createsasty, bloody confusion to anyone hit by them, a weapons expert told CNN.

The option of using it as a last resort has yet to be taken off the table by the Biden administration. But sources say the proposal has not yet received significant consideration in large part due to the statutory restrictions that Congress has put on the US’ ability to transfer cluster munitions.

Those restrictions apply to munitions with a greater than one percent unexploded ordnance rate, which raises the prospect that they will pose a risk to civilians. The Ukrainians have been told by the administration that they are unlikely to be able to override that restriction in the near term.

A congressional aide tells CNN that the ability of Ukraine to make gains in the current and upcoming phases of conflict is not dependent on or linked to their purchases of weaponry.

The Defense Ministry told CNN that it doesn’t comment on reports regarding requests for particular weapons systems, but that it will wait until an agreement is reached with a supplier.

According to an official from the Ukrainian government, the weapons are more effective if there is a concentration of Russian forces.

The nine-month-old war, which began with Russia’s invasion, has killed and wounded tens of thousands and caused millions of dollars in damage. Despite its length, he showed no signs of letting up, vowing to “consistently fight for our interests” and to “protect ourselves using all means available.” He also stated that the West gave in to Russia’s demands, and only spit in the face.

Speaking in a televised meeting in Russia with members of his Human Rights Council, Putin described the land gains as “a significant result for Russia,” noting that the Sea of Azov “has become Russia’s internal sea.” In one of his frequent historic references to a Russian leader he admires, he added that “Peter the Great fought to get access” to that body of water.

Putin’s Nuclear Posture in Moscow During the January 2016 Ukrenergo-Born-Infeld-Drone Attack

“If it doesn’t use it first under any circumstances, it means that it won’t be the second to use it, either, because the possibility of using it in case of a nuclear strike on our territory will be sharply limited,” he said.

He said there has been no change in Russia’s nuclear posture despite the threat of weapons of mass destruction.

In his televised remarks, the Russian leader didn’t address Russia’s battlefield setbacks or its attempts to cement control over the seized regions but acknowledged problems with supplies, treatment of wounded soldiers and limited desertions.

In the Kursk region bordering Ukraine, the governor posted photos of new concrete anti-tank barriers — known as “dragon’s teeth” — in open fields. The governor said on Tuesday that there was a fire at the airport after the strike on the drones. In neighboring Belgorod, workers were expanding anti-tank barriers and officials were organizing “self-defense units.” Belgorod has seen a number of fires and explosions, and according to the governor, Russia’s air defenses have shot down incoming rockets.

In brazen drone attacks, two strategic Russian air bases more than 500 kilometers (300 miles) from the Ukraine border were struck Monday. Moscow blamed Ukraine, which didn’t claim responsibility.

Moscow responded with strikes by artillery, multiple rocket launchers, missiles, tanks and mortars at residential buildings and civilian infrastructure, worsening damage to the power grid. Ukrenergo stated that temperatures in eastern areas where it was repairing had dropped to as low as minus 17 degrees Celsius.

The reference to Kursk appears to reference Russia’s announcement that an airfield in the Kursk region, which neighbors Ukraine, was targeted in a drone attack. The Ukrainian Defense Ministry is not commenting on recent explosions deep within Russia. Officially, the targets are well beyond the reach of the country’s declared drones.

Putin wanted to know who was not providing water to the city of Donetsk. Not supplying water to a city of million is an act of genocide.”

He ended his apparently off-the-cuff comments by claiming that people seem to refrain from mentioning that water has been cut off from Donetsk. There has been no word on it. At all! Complete silence.”

The local Russian authorities in the city have reported an increase in shelling this week.

Putin was at a reception and made public comments about the Russian military attacks on Ukraine.

Putin drove a car across the structure that he officially opened last year, while he was on the Kerch Bridge.

Russian drone attacks on Ukraine’s energy grid are genocide: a statement from the prime minister on television news channel TV Nov. 24

He ended the speech with a toast to the listening soldiers and a sip from his champagne glass, he stated that it wouldn’t interfere with the combat missions.

In a statement in November Ukrenergo admitted that the race to restore power to homes was hampered by strong winds, rain and cold weather.

A top Ukrainian official said the attacks on the country’s energy grid amount to genocide. Ukrainian Prosecutor-General Andriy Kostin made the comments while speaking to the BBC last month.

The missile attack destroyed a recreation center for people, people in uniform and their families, said Yevgeny Balitsky, Russia’s acting governor of Zaporizhzhia.

The houses, schools and kindergartens that were taken by the Russian military are now homes for the military. Federov told us in November that military equipment is located in residential areas.

The unofficial Crimean media portal “Krymskyi veter” said an explosion at a Russian military barracks in Sovietske had set the barracks on fire and there were dead and wounded.

Sergey Aksenov, the Russian-appointed head of Crimea, said on Telegram: “The air defense system worked over Simferopol. All services are working as usual.

President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine said that Russian drone strikes on the southern port city of Odesa left more than 1.5 million people in that region without power Saturday night, the latest attacks in an ongoing series of assaults on Ukrainian energy infrastructure by the Kremlin.

“In general, both emergency and stabilization power outages continue in various regions,” Zelensky said. To put it mildly, the power system now is very far from normal.

The Kremlin and the Zaluzhny Conjecture: The Ugly Planned War for Ukraine

Zelensky said the true attitude of Russia toward Odesa was to bully and try to bring disaster to the city.

On Tuesday, about 70 countries and international organizations pledged more than $1 billion to help repair Ukraine’s infrastructure. Last week, the Pentagon announced that an additional $275 million in security assistance for Ukraine had been approved, including weapons, artillery rounds and equipment to help Ukraine boost its air defense. In November, the US announced a $53 million package to support repairs to Ukraine’s power system.

“The enemy wanted to massively disperse the attention of air defense,” a spokesman for the Ukrainian Air Force, Yurii Ihnat, said. Valeriy Zaluzhny, the chief of the Ukrainian military, said that 60 of the missiles were downed by the country’s air defense forces.

The repeated assaults on the plants and equipment that Ukrainians rely on for heat and light have drawn condemnation from world leaders, and thrust Ukraine into a grim cycle in which crews hurry to restore power only to have it knocked out again.

He said that the power system is far from normal and he urged people to use less power to help the grid.

“It must be understood: Even if there are no heavy missile strikes, this does not mean that there are no problems,” he continued. There are missile attacks, drone attacks every day in different regions. Almost every day, energy facilities are hit.

The return of Volodymyr Zelenskyy to the U.S. after her release from Russian prisoner’s incarceration

Ukrainian authorities have been stepping up raids on churches accused of links with Moscow, and many are watching to see if Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy follows through on his threat of a ban on the Russian Orthodox Church.

French President Emmanuel Macron hosts European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store for a working dinner Monday in Paris.

Also in France, on Tuesday, the country is set to co-host a conference with Ukraine in support of Ukrainians through the winter, with a video address by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Fans, friends and family are celebrating the basketball player’s return to the US after her release from Russian prison. Meanwhile, some Republican politicians have been complaining about the prisoner swap and other U.S. citizens still held by Russia.

New measures targeting Russian oil revenue took effect Dec. 5. A Russian oil price cap and a European Union embargo on most Russian oil imports are included.

Russian units have been pressed into action by the Ukrainians for months in order to gain control over the city of Bkamut, but have suffered heavy losses while being targeted in rural territory.

What happened to Zelensky when Ukraine was invaded by Russia in December 2018: a tragic tale of losing a child and raising awareness of war in Ukraine

It was 2019. And the successful TV comedian turned commander in chief had traveled to Paris for a summit to negotiate a peace deal with Putin. Despite the doubts of many, Zelensky managed to walk away giving few concessions.

Zelensky is described in a new book as an ordinary man thrust into extraordinary circumstances.

December is a month of fairy tales, when we peer into darkness only to be reassured of the happily ever after.

“We used to joke that our life was like a dark fairy tale inclined towards a happy ending. And now it’s over,” says Ievheniia, a displaced Ukrainian woman in Poland who this December is nursing her two-month-old son – and raw grief for the child’s father.

With a newborn baby, Ievheniia was unable to travel back to Ukraine for her husband’s funeral. She asked relatives to livestream it for her. But Russia’s continued attacks on critical infrastructure has made Internet connection in Ukraine unreliable – what she got was a few short recordings. Denys was buried with no mourners present.

In this dark Ukrainian fairy tale, pivotal moments – from marriage ceremony to funeral – take place via video link. This is what love looks like in a time of war, shifted to the digital space and disrupted mid-plot.

Ievheniia, a 36-year-old PhD candidate working as an IT consultant, told me her story on a video call. She trusted a stranger with her pain to raise awareness about the fight which, since the start of Russia’s invasion in February, has claimed the lives of thousands of Ukrainian soldiers.

In the streets of Warsaw, her temporary home, the festive season is well underway. “Christmas is coming. Ievheniia said people don’t want to remember that someone is suffering. “And yet, they must be aware that this fight is unfolding right next to them.”

Ievheniia finally made it to an enlistment office after driving all the way from the west. She was interviewed on a Friday and told to return the following Monday to sign a contract with the Armed Forces.

On the weekend, she decided to take a pregnancy test, just in case. She laughed and said the ground was slipping under one’s feet during war. “On top of that, it turned out that I was pregnant.”

The pregnant woman who planned to defend her homeland instead joined the refugees in Poland, thanks to the plot twist provided by the pregnancy test.

The magic of marriage: From a video call to a touching video message to the birth of a Ukrainian man whose birthday was November 17

After war separated them, Ievheniia and Denys tried to make their partnership known to the state. The everyday ingenuity of the country at war was at work; now, Ukrainian servicemen are allowed to marry via a video call. “Instead of (by) boring civil servants, we got married remotely by a handsome man in a uniform. Ievheniia said he had nothing to complain about.

The magic continued through the Internet, with Denys ordering professional photoshoots and flower deliveries for Ievheniia from the trenches.

Denys raised the alarm when Ievheniia didn’t pick up the phone, and a rescue squad found her unconscious in her apartment. There could have been death as a result of the delay. The Caesarean section was followed by another section. The son was able to meet his father because he was born two months early.

Under martial law, Ukrainian men of fighting age, let alone servicemen, are not currently allowed to leave the country. Denys was given permission to cross the border and spent five days with his family.

It was a time filled with mundane things, like shopping, and there was a funny tone to it. He left after that. It was his birthday on November 17 and we sent him greetings,” Ievheniia remembered. He was killed the next day.

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/14/opinions/ukraine-christmas-fairy-tales-death-dovzhyk/index.html

The “Fantasytale Fable” of Ievheneniia, the Prince of Crime, and the Victim of a Shelling Attack in Kherson

Italo Calvino, the celebrated Italian journalist and editor of folktales, among other works, called them “consolatory fables” because it is that a rare fairy tale ends badly. If it does, it means the time to be consoled has not yet come. Instead, it is time to act.

We must not be fooled by the narrative logic of a fairy tale. The kid won’t rely on magic to defeat the monster. Like ten months ago, Ukrainians need military aid sufficient to bring a decisive victory over Russia, not just prolong the fight with enormous sacrifices. Ukrainian victory depends on what we do together.

I wondered how I would act in a fight against evil when I was a teenager. Would I be able to turn away and proceed with my daily life?” I said that Ievheniia told me. “Today, all of us have a chance to find out.”

The attack by Ukrainian forces on the occupied DONETSK region has been the biggest in the last three years, according to a Russia-installed official.

“Forty rockets from BM-21 ‘Grad’ MLRS were fired at civilians in our city,” he said Thursday, adding that a key intersection in Donetsk city center had come under fire.

There were at least four deaths in the southern city of Kherson, which was liberated by the Ukrainians in November, according to the head of the region’s military administration. Shelling also set a multi-storey apartment building ablaze, and the body of a man was found in one apartment, the Ukrainian Prosecutor-General’s Office said. The city is having a hard time restoring basic services.

“One of (the victims) was a volunteer, a member of the rapid response team of the international organization. During the shelling, they were on the street, they were fatally wounded by fragments of enemy shells,” he added.

The Kherson strike and the destruction of infrastructure in Kyiv by U.S. Army, Medical Assistance and Heat-Supply Stations

The strikes in Kherson left the city “completely disconnected” from power supplies, according to the regional head of the Kherson military administration, Yanushevych.

“The enemy hit a critical infrastructure facility. In a Telegram video on Thursday,Yanushevych said that the place where the medical aid and humanitarian aid distribution point is located has been damaged.

Kyiv’s mayor, Vitali Klitschko, said the city “received machinery and generators from the U.S. Government to operate boiler houses and heat supply stations.”

The Energy Security Project, run by USAID, delivered four excavators and over 130 generators, Klitschko said on Telegram. The equipment was free of charge.

Russia tries to convince the world that a ceasefire is a preferable outcome to a Ukrainian victory because of fears of a Russian defeat.

“The Ukrainian side needs to take into account the realities that have developed over all this time,” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Tuesday in response to Zelensky’s three-step proposal.

“And these realities indicate that the Russian Federation has new subjects,” he said, referring to four areas Russia has claimed to have annexed, Donetsk, Kherson, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia.

US Army’s Patriot and NATO in Ukraine: What is the rationale behind the decision to send its air defense system to the United States?

Two US officials and a senior administration official claim that the Biden administration is nearing a decision to send the US’s most advanced ground- based air defense system to Ukraine. Ukraine’s government has long requested the system to help it defend against repeated Russian missile and drone attacks. It would be the most effective long-range defensive weapons system sent to the country and officials say it will help secure airspace for members of the North Atlantic Treaty and America (NATO) in eastern Europe.

Zakharova stated that many experts questioned the rationality of such a step which would lead to an escalation of the conflict and increase the chances of the US army dragged into combat.

It is believed that the US Army’s Patriot is one of the most capable long-range air defense systems on the market.

The Pentagon’s press secretary was asked about Russian warnings that the system would beocative. Gen. Pat Ryder said those comments would not influence US aid to Ukraine.

“I find it ironic and very telling that officials from a country that brutally attacked its neighbor in an illegal and unprovoked invasion … that they would choose to use words like provocative to describe defensive systems that are meant to save lives and protect civilians,” Ryder told reporters.

“We don’t have NATO troops on the ground. There are no NATO planes in the air over Ukraine. But we are supporting Ukraine in their right to defend themselves,” he said.

The commander of the Russian militia in the eastern part of the country appeared on Russian state TV and suggested that Russia could not defeat the NATO alliance in a conventional war.

In the trenches: old weapons in the United States and in the fortifications of Kryvyi Rih, Ukraine

Unlike smaller air defense systems, the batteries have larger crews and require a lot of personnel to operate them. The training for the missiles takes a long while and the United States will now have to contend with aerial attacks from Russia.

Zelensky told The Economist that he did not agree with Blinken’s suggestion that the US should not want to see a return to territory seized by Russia, including areas like Donbas and Crimea.

In an interview with France 24 this week, the NATO Secretary General said the alliance still has two main objectives, one being to provide aid toUkraine and another being to make sure that NATO doesn’t get involved in the war.

Old weapons. CNN’s Ellie Kaufman and Liebermann reported earlier this week on a US military official who says Russian forces have had to resort to 40-year-old artillery ammunition as their supplies of new ammo are “rapidly dwindling.”

The official told reporters that when they loaded the equipment, they crossed their fingers that it would fire or explode.

The effect of months of military aid. It’s a completely different scale, but CNN reported last month the US is running low on some weapons systems and munitions it provides to Ukraine. The storyline will become part of the US aid debate after Republicans take control of the House of Representatives next month.

In the trenches. CNN’s Will Ripley filed a video report from trenches and fortifications being built along Ukraine’s border with Belarus, where there is growing concern about Russia once again assembling troops. Ripley talks to a sewing machine repairman turned tank driver.

In the central city of Kryvyi Rih, officials said a Russian missile had hit a three-story residential building, killing at least two people and that emergency services were digging through the wreckage. “There may be people under the rubble,” the deputy head of the presidential administration, Kyrylo Tymoshenko, said.

The southeastern region of Zaporizhzhia was hit by more than a dozen missile strikes, according to Oleksandr Starukh, chief of the regional military administration, but it was unclear what had been targeted.

An MiG-31K, a supersonic aircraft capable of carrying a Kinzal hypersonic missile, was also seen in the sky over Belarus during the air attacks on Friday in Ukraine, according to Ukraine’s Armed Forces. But it was not clear from their statement whether a Kinzal was used in the attacks.

“We know that their defense industrial base is being taxed,” Kirby said of Russia. “We know they’re having trouble keeping up with that pace. We know that he’s (Russian President Vladimir Putin’s) having trouble replenishing specifically precision guided munitions.”

He declined to give any news on the next security assistance package, but did say that more air defense capabilities should be expected.

Video of a Russian soldier pretending to fight in the army: The Russian president tells Putin he is willing to fight for the motherland

Moscow has begun a new campaign to encourage Russians to enlist in the armed forces and fight in Ukraine, despite the Kremlin having denied needing more recruits.

One of the videos, posted on December 14, features a young man who is choosing to fight instead of partying with his male friends and then surprises everyone by buying himself a car with the money he made from fighting on a military contract.

In another video, posted on December 15, the former girlfriend of a soldier is newly impressed with his courage and begs him to get back together with her. A middle-aged man leaving his job in a factory and not being paid enough to sign a military contract to go to the front of the line.

Another of the videos shows a group of 30-something, well-off Russian men loading a car as they are asked by elderly women where are they going. One of the men replies: “To Georgia. It’s forever. When one woman spills a bag of groceries, the men just get into the car and leave, instead of helping, while younger Russian men rush to pick up the groceries. The boys left and the men stayed, says an elderly woman.

Many of the videos portray the war as an escape for men from a bleak daily reality of drinking vodka, poverty and helplessness. There are reports and complaints about shortage of provisions and equipment in the Russian military.

In a meeting with the mothers of the mobilized in November, Russian President Vladimir Putin told them that it was better to be killed fighting for the motherland than to drink oneself to death.

Earlier this month, addressing a news conference after a summit of Eurasian countries in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, Putin attempted to reassure the public that there were no plans for additional mobilization.

Questioned about reports of continuing military equipment shortages on the front lines, Putin said he was working closely with the Russian defense ministry and that the issue was being resolved.

In Paris at the time, I saw Zelensky drive up to lysée Palace in a small car while Putin was driving a limo. The host, of course, was the French President, who hugged Putin and then shook hands with Zelensky.

Zelensky was in a downward trajectory in his popularity ratings in the days before the invasion of Russia, where he began his administration at a high point.

Zelensky’s upbringing in the rough and tumble neighborhoods of Kryvyi Rih in central Ukraine shaped him into a scrappy kid who learned how to respond to bullies.

This, after all, is the leader who when offered evacuation by the US as Russia launched its full-scale invasion, quipped: “I need ammunition, not a ride.”

Zelensky achieved the thing Putin most wanted to achieve but failed at, and that is to rally support in Russia with a patriotic war. Michael Popow, a New York-based business analyst, told me that Putin felt that if he was shown up by a comedian it would be painful.

Zelensky thanked his supporters for a landslide victory at the campaign celebration in a converted Kyiv nightclub amid the fog of war. Standing on stage among the fluttering confetti, he looked in a state of disbelief at having defeated incumbent veteran politician Petro Poroshenko.

His ratings seem to have improved because of the war. Just days after the invasion, Zelensky’s ratings approval surged to 90%, and remain high to this day. Zelensky was rated by Americans high for his handling of international affairs, ahead of US President Joe Biden.

His bubble includes many people from his previous professional life as a TV comedian in the theatrical group Kvartal 95. In the middle of the war, a press conference held at the platform of a Kyiv metro station in April featured great lighting and camera angles meant to emphasize a wartime setting.

As a result of his skills as comforter in chief, I remember well the solace his nightly addresses brought when there were air raid sirens and explosions in Lviv.

The Russian War on Everybody: And What It Means for You? Introducing Zelensky to the London Eye: Changing the Face of Russia

Zelensky’s wearing of T-shirts and hoodies is showing confidence and competence to a younger, global audience that recognizes it as such.

She believes he is more comfortable than Putin on camera as both an actor and a digital native. I think that Zelensky is doing a better job balancing authority and accessibility, as both of them want to come across as personable.

Zelenska has shown herself to be an effective communicator in international fora by showing her style and smarts. King Charles met with her at a refugee assistance center at the Ukrainian Catholic Cathedral of Holy Family in London. (Curiously, TIME magazine did not include Zelenska on the cover montage and gave only a passing reference in the supporting text).

Zelensky has strong tailwinds at his back and it is possible that he could be diminishing his international influence. Zelensky was against the $60 a barrel price cap imposed on Russian crude by the G7 because it would have meant more pain for the Kremlin.

Zelensky said in a recent nightly video address that no matter what the aggressor does, the world will decide how events develop.

Editor’s Note: Keir Giles (@KeirGiles) works with the Russia and Eurasia Programme of Chatham House, an international affairs think tank in the UK. He is the author of “Russia’s War on Everybody: And What it Means for You.” The views expressed in this commentary are his own. Read more opinion on CNN.

Russia and its backers around the world will present this as an enormous and dangerous escalation. That’s nonsense, but it’s highly effective nonsense.

And yet, Russia’s UN Security Council veto and the fear it has instilled through nuclear propaganda have given it a free pass to behave as it wishes, without fear of interference from a global community looking on in either ambivalence or helpless paralysis.

That makes a bad example of other aggressive powers around the world. Nuclear weapons will allow you to wage genocidal wars of destruction against your neighbours because other nations won’t intervene.

If that’s not the message the US and the West want other aggressor states around the world to receive, then supply of Patriot should be followed by far more direct and assertive means of dissuading Moscow.

The first and second deliverables are the Patriot missile systems. They have been called the US’s “gold standard” of air defense. NATO guards them and requires the personnel who operate them to be properly trained.

The second is for Ukrainian jets. Ukraine, and Russia, largely are equipped with munitions that are “dumb” – fired roughly towards a target. Western standard precision artillery and missiles like Howitzers have been given to Ukraine.

The nearly $3 billion package is among the largest packages of military equipment sent from the Pentagon to Ukraine since the war began. It comes as Ukraine prepares for intensive fighting in the spring as the weather warms.

Vladimir Putin at the front lines of freedom: Russia is on the way to victory in the war in Ukraine, and the country will be ready for a long confrontation with Russia

But Moscow is struggling to equip and rally its conventional forces, and, with the exception of its nuclear forces, appears to be running out of new cards to play. China and India have joined the West in open statements against the use of nuclear force, which has made that option even less likely.

Western analysts have noted Russia has grumbled consistently about these deliveries, but been relatively muted in its practical response to the crossing of what, as recently as January, might have been considered “red lines.”

Whatever the eventual truth of the matter – and military aid is opaque at the best of times – Biden wants Putin to hear nothing but headline figures in the billions, to sap Russian resolve, push European partners to help more, and make Ukraine’s resources seem limitless.

The remnants of the Trumpist “America First” elements of that party have echoed doubts about how much aid the US should really be sending to the edges of eastern Europe.

Washington’s annual defense budget is so high that the bill for defeating Russia in this conflict is relatively light.

He is an inspiring rhetorician and the embodiment of how Putin has turned ordinary Ukrainians into wartime heroes.

She said Zelensky’s historic address “strengthened both Democrats and Republicans who understand what is at stake in this fight against Putin and Russian aggression and now with their ally, Iran, as well.”

The speech “connected the struggle of Ukrainian people to our own revolution, to our own feelings that we want to be warm in our homes to celebrate Christmas and to get us to think about all the families in Ukraine that will be huddled in the cold and to know that they are on the front lines of freedom right now,” Clinton said on CNN’s “Anderson Cooper 360” Wednesday.

Clinton, who previously met Russian President Vladimir Putin as US secretary of state, said the leader was “probably impossible to actually predict,” as the war turns in Ukraine’s favor and his popularity fades at home.

The bodies of Russian conscripts will be thrown into the fight inUkraine, Clinton said, as he indicated that Putin was considering how to throw more bodies.

Kyiv and its Western allies are “set for a long confrontation with Russia” following President Volodymyr Zelensky’s momentous visit to Washington, Moscow said as the war in Ukraine approaches 10 months.

The Russian foreign ministry condemned the tyranny of the regime in Kyiv and the promised support to it by the US at the White House on Wednesday.

Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova said that no matter how much military support the West provides to the Ukrainian government, “they will achieve nothing.”

“As the leadership of our country has stated, the tasks set within the framework of the special military operation will be fulfilled, taking into account the situation on the ground and the actual realities,” Zakharova added, referring to Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Peskos said that there were no calls for peace. But during his address to the US Congress on Wednesday, Zelensky did stress that “we need peace,” reiterating the 10-point plan devised by Ukraine.

Peskov told journalists, however, that Wednesday’s meeting showed the US is waging a proxy war of “indirect fighting” against Russia down “to the last Ukrainian.”

The president said in his Christmas address that Ukrainians must havepatience and faith in the future after Russian strikes decimated Kherson.

He urged the nation to stand firm in the face of a grim winter of energy blackouts, the absence of loved ones and the ever-present threat of Russian attacks.

“There may be empty chairs around it. Our houses and streets are not bright. And Christmas bells can ring not so loudly and inspiringly. Through air raid sirens, or even worse – gunshots and explosions.”

He said that Ukraine had been resisting evil forces for three hundred days and eight years, however, “in this battle, we have another powerful and effective weapon. The hammer and sword of our spirit and consciousness. The knowledge of God. Courage and bravery. Virtues that incline us to do good and overcome evil.”

Addressing the Ukrainian people directly, he said the country would sing Christmas carols louder than the sound of a power generator and hear the voices and greetings of relatives “in our hearts” even if communication services and the internet are down.

In total darkness, we’ll find each other and hug each other tightly. And if there is no heat, we will give a big hug to warm each other.”

Zelensky concluded: “We will celebrate our holidays!” As always. We will smile and be happy. As always. There is a difference. We will not wait for a miracle. After all, we create it ourselves.”

Orthodox Christian customs in Ukraine state that Christmas is celebrated on January 7 due to the birth of Jesus according to the Julian calendar.

63 Russian servicemen killed in attack on a Ukrainian drone by air defenses on Monday in Engels, the capital of the Volga River

The Russian defense ministry on Monday acknowledged the attack and claimed that 63 Russian servicemen died, which would make it one of the deadliest single episodes of the war for Moscow’s forces.

He wrote on Telegram that these are not military facilities. This isn’t a war according to the rules. It is killing for the sake of pleasure.

Three Russian servicemen were killed Monday after a Ukrainian drone was shot down by air defenses as it approached a military airfield in Saratov Oblast, deep inside Russian territory, according to Russian state news agencies, citing the defense ministry.

The incident took place in the western port city of Engels, some 500 miles (more than 800 kilometers) southeast of Moscow, located on the Volga River. The city is home to a strategic bomber air base, which was the site of a second attempted attack this month.

The governor said on Monday that law enforcement agencies are investigating the incident at the airfield. The comments, posted on his official Telegram channel, came after reports circulated of an explosion in the city.

The explosion of December 5 and the threat of a missile strike in the Russian airfields: State of the art and the servicemen in Engels

He said that there were no emergencies within the residential areas of the city. He also extended his condolences to the families of the servicemen, saying the government would provide them with assistance.

“This reminds of the events of December 5, so there may be some deja vu, some repetition of this situation, after which [the Russians] launched a massive missile strike,” the spokesperson said. “Therefore, we should be prepared for this, take it into account in our plans and do not forget to proceed to the shelter.”

The explosion that was seen on the video was seen by some as a lighting up of the sky in Engels. Gov. Busargin reassured people that there was no damage to civilian infrastructure and that information about incidents at military facilities was being checked by law enforcement agencies.

Since some cruise missiles are launched from bombers that fly from the airfields hit in the attacks, the strikes could potentially destroy the missiles on the ground at the Russian airfields before they can be deployed.

Mr. Zagorodnyuk said that he did not speak for the government and that he could not confirm the strikes, adding that he was fighting back. There is no reason not to attempt this.

The most sophisticated missile in Russia’s arsenal, the Kinzhal, a hypersonic weapon that can reach targets in minutes and is all but impossible to shoot down, is in even shorter supply, Mr. Budanov said.

Putting Systems Out Of Whack: Menon’s Warnings to the Ukraine’s Emergency Electricity and Fire Rescue Emergency Services, Revisited

“You put systems out of whack if you mess with it,” says Rajan Menon, a director of the Defense Priorities think tank who recently returned from a trip to the Ukrainian capital. “It’s not only an inconvenience but an enormous economic cost. It’s an attempt to make the population feel pain, so that the government can’t protect them in an adequate way.

According to Tymoshenko, the lead for disaster response in the Ukrainian presidential office, there are several residential buildings that were destroyed in the capital.

An explosion shook the windows of nearby homes. In case of water shortages, the Mayor urged residents to fill water containers with their electronic devices.

In separate comments to Russian media Wednesday, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov insisted Moscow would continue to pursue its objectives in Ukraine with “perseverance” and “patience.”

Russia’s onslaught on Thursday was aimed at the country’s electrical infrastructure, and knocked out power in several regions. Engineering crews were racing to restore services as the New Year’s holiday approaches this weekend.

When Anastasiia Hryn, a 34-year-old Kyiv resident, woke up to the sound of air raid sirens followed by an explosion, she and her son descended to the basement shelter beneath their building. But they were not particularly surprised, nor did they let it dampen their spirits.

Hryn said that after the all clear, life went back to normal, and that his neighbors were in a rush to get their child to the movie theater. Parents took their children to school and others worked on holiday plans in defiance.

Russia’s Defense Ministry and the Ukraine’s Strategic Plan Against Human Rights Violations in the Post-Soviet Era

The two people that were pulled from the damaged home on Thursday were a 14-year-old and a 19-year-old. The city military administration said that homes, an industrial facility and a playground were damaged in the capital.

Russia’s Defense Ministry claimed that their missile attacks against the Ukraine on Thursday had “neutralized” all of their targets.

It said that Russia “continues to conduct offensive actions at the Lyman and Bakhmut directions and is trying to improve the tactical situation at the Kupiansk and Avdiivka directions.”

The Ukrainian officials said that Russian forces are suffering losses. CNN could not confirm Russia’s claims.

The ministry didn’t claim any gains against Ukrainian forces in spite of Russia’s claims, which made it appear as though the two sides are locked in a stalemate.

Putin said that his forces were embarking on a “special military operation,” and that it would be over in a matter of weeks.

The post-Soviet period in which the country pursued its democratic reforms was disrupted by the war, as well as at least financial integration and dialogue with the West.

Since February, authoritarian laws have banned criticism of the military or leadership. Nearly 20,000 people have been detained for demonstrating against the war — 45% of them women — according to a leading independent monitoring group.

High profile opposition voices have been meted out lengthy prison sentences for questioning the conduct or strategy of the Russian army.

Organizations and individuals are added to the list every week because they are intended to hurt the reputation of the Russian public.

Even Russia’s most revered human rights group, 2022’s Nobel Prize co-recipient Memorial, was forced to stop its activities over alleged violations of the foreign agents law.

Russia’s restrictive anti-LGBT laws have been greatly expanded, by the state, because of the war in Ukraine.

The targeted repressive measures have not changed for now. Some of the new laws are not enforced. Measures should be used to crush wider dissent when the time arises.

Leading independent media outlets and a handful of vibrant, online investigative startups were forced to shut down or relocate abroad when confronted with new “fake news” laws that criminalized contradicting the official government line.

There are restrictions for internet users as well. American social media giants such as Twitter and Facebook were banned in March. Roskomnadzor, the Kremlin’s internet regulator, has blocked more than 100,000 websites since the start of the conflict.

Technical workarounds such as VPNs and Telegram still offer access to Russians seeking independent sources of information. But state media propaganda now blankets the airwaves favored by older Russians, with angry TV talk shows spreading conspiracies.

War against Russia: What Putin’s policies and consequences have taught us about the Soviet invasion, its annexation of Ukraine, and Russia’s support for Ukraine

Many perceived government opponents left in the early days of the war over fears of persecution.

While Russians are a sensitive issue for former Soviet republics, countries that have absorbed their exodus predict their economies will grow.

Helped by Russian price controls, the ruble regained value. Mcdonald’s and other brands were relaunched under new names. By year’s end, the government reported the economy had declined by 2.5%, far less than most economists predicted.

Ultimately, President Putin is betting that when it comes to sanctions, Europe will blink first — pulling back on its support to Ukraine as Europeans grow angry over soaring energy costs at home. He announced a ban on oil exports to countries that do not have a price cap, which is likely to cause more pain in Europe.

The collapse of the Soviet Union had a negative affect on Putin’s reputation for providing stability, and the economic damage has already put an end to that.

The government’s tone is unchanging when it comes to Russia’s military campaign. Russia’s Defense Ministry provides daily briefings recounting endless successes on the ground. Putin, too, repeatedly assures that everything is “going according to plan.”

Yet the sheer length of the war — with no immediate Russian victory in sight — suggests Russia vastly underestimated Ukrainians’ willingness to resist.

Russia’s illegal annexation of four territories of Ukraine following unrecognized referendums in September has only underscored Moscow’s problems: it hasn’t been able to establish full control over the lands it now claims as its own.

The true number of Russian losses – officially at just under 6,000 men – remains a highly taboo subject at home. Western estimates place those figures much higher.

Russia’s invasion backfired in its main aim: NATO looks poised to expand towards Russia’s borders with the addition of long-neutral states Finland and Sweden.

Longtime allies in Central Asia have criticized Russia’s actions out of concern for their own sovereignty, an affront that would have been unthinkable in Soviet times. India andChina have bought discounted Russian oil but have stopped supporting the military campaign of Russia.

Source: https://www.npr.org/2022/12/31/1145981036/war-against-ukraine-has-left-russia-isolated-and-struggling-with-more-tumult-ahe

Russian air raid sirens sounded across Ukraine over the weekend as Russian missile strikes strike regions in Kyiv, Ukraine, and ahead of New Year

A state of the nation address was originally scheduled for April, but has been repeated delays and will not happen until next year. Putin’s annual “direct line” — a media event in which Putin fields questions from ordinary Russians — was canceled outright.

The annual December “big press conference” that allows the Russian leader to handle critical questions from the pro-Kremlin press was similarly tabled until 2023.

The Kremlin had no explanation for the delays. Many believe that after 10 months of war, the Russian leader has run out of good news to share.

Air raid sirens sounded across Ukraine over the weekend as fresh rounds of Russian missile strikes hit several regions. The attacks killed at least six people in the Donetsk, Kharkiv and Chernihiv regions, while a man was injured early Monday.

Video from the scene of the attack is being posted on Telegram, which is an official Ukrainian military channel. Almost no part of the building is still standing, as seen in the picture.

Russia’s Defense Ministry also announced the return of 82 Russian prisoners of war following what it said were negotiations with “territories under the control of the Kyiv regime.”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky accused Russia of “following the devil” and waging a war to ensure that its President Vladimir Putin remains in power “until the end of his life.”

Zelensky switched to speaking Russian in his nightly address on Saturday to send a message to the Kremlin and Russian citizens, as Moscow launched a series of deadly strikes that swept several regions of Ukraine ahead of New Year.

The air strikes on civilian infrastructure in Kiev: the state of affairs and the response of the Central Intelligence Mission in the month of February 22

The deputy head of the office of the president of ukrainian said on Telegram that three people were killed and three more were wounded.

One person was wounded in the Zaporizhzhia region. Two people were killed and one person was wounded in the region. There were three people injured and one dead in the Kherson region.

The enemy had 26 air strikes on civilian infrastructure. In particular, the occupants used 10 Shahed-136 UAVs, but all of them were shot down. civilian settlements were also hit by the enemy, according to the General Staff.

“The municipal ‘life support system’ of the capital is operating normally. Roughly 30% of consumers don’t have electricity. Due to emergency shutdowns,” he said on Telegram.

Klitschko also reported that the restrictions were applied to check the open section of the red metro line in the city “for the presence of remnants of missile debris.”

Source: https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/31/europe/russia-ukraine-new-years-eve-strikes-intl/index.html

The New Year: Negotiating with the West and Russia in a Wide-Range, Fluid, Fluid and Multi-Energy War

“From 2023 I really want to win, and also to have more bright impressions and new emotions. I miss it a lot. I also want to travel outside the country. And I also think about personal and professional growth, because one should not stand still. I have to develop and work for the benefit of the country,” said Alyona Bogulska, a 29-year-old financier.

It is a symbol that we survived the year, not a small victory, said a 43-year-old pharmacy employee.

There should be joy and hope in the cities on New Year’s Eve. Zelenska said that Ukrainian cities were again covered by missile wave from Russia.

To apply a special case of negotiation with few parameters and a narrow range of outcomes to a complex, fluid and more wide-ranging rivalry is a category error. There is no special, separate category of actions the West orUkraine could take that would automatically start a nuclear war with Russia. Russia has no red lines: It only has, at each moment, a range of options and perceptions of their relative risks and benefits. The West should continually aim, through its diplomacy, to shape these perceptions so that Russia chooses the options that the West prefers.

This is the first time America has done this. During the Cuban Missile Crisis, the most dangerous nuclear confrontation so far, the Soviet Union’s position shifted in a matter of days, ultimately accepting an outcome that favored the West. The US might have adopted an inferior compromise that hampered its security and credibility if red lines had been in place.

Russian troops were quartered in the abandoned Makiivka facility during a Ukrainian strike: The military, pro-Russian military and former officials

An apparent Ukrainian strike in Russian-occupied eastern Ukraine appears to have killed a large number of Russian troops, according to the Ukrainian military, pro-Russian military bloggers and former officials.

The Russian military was accused by a pro-Russian military blogger of lacking protection and being quartered next to a large cache of weaponry when the school was hit.

The Russian senator Grigory Karasin stated that the people responsible for the killing of Russian servicemen in Makiivka must be found.

“Greetings and congratulations” to the separatists and conscripts who “were brought to the occupied Makiivka and crammed into the building of vocational school,” the Strategic Communications Directorate of the Chief Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine said on Telegram. 400 Russian soldiers were packed into bags by Santa.

The high command is still unaware of the capabilities of this weapon, according to a former official in the Russia-backed Donetsk administration.

“I hope that those responsible for the decision to use this facility will be reprimanded,” Bezsonov said. “There are enough abandoned facilities in Donbas with sturdy buildings and basements where personnel can be quartered.”

A Russian propagandist who blogs about the war effort on Telegram, Igor Girkin, claimed that the building was almost completely destroyed by the secondary detonation of ammunition stores.

“Nearly all the military equipment, which stood close to the building without the slightest sign of camouflage, was also destroyed,” Girkin said. “There are still no final figures on the number of casualties, as many people are still missing.”

Russian generals who he says direct the war effort far from the frontline were decried as “unlearned in principle” and unwilling to listen to warnings about put equipment and personnel so close together. Girkin was previously minister of defense of the self-proclaimed, Russian-backed Donetsk People’s Republic, and was found guilty by a Dutch court of mass murder for his involvement in the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 over eastern Ukraine in 2014.

If the precautions relating to the dispersal andConcealment of personnel were taken, the unnecessary losses might not have happened, despite several months of war.

On the Russian role of “war” and “special operation” in the killing of 76 soldiers in Makiivka, Ukraine, two days after the Kremlin attack

Russian forces “lost 760 people killed just yesterday, (and) continue to attempt offensive actions on Bakhmut,” the military’s general staff said Sunday.

The Russian ministry of defense said that there was a strike on the occupied city of Makiivka because of the widespread use of cell phones by Russian soldiers.

But that account was angrily dismissed by an influential military blogger and implicitly contradicted by the leader of the self-declared Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) in eastern Ukraine, pointing to discord in the Russian command over Moscow’s response to the attack.

Semyon Pegov, who blogs under the alias WarGonzo and two weeks ago was personally awarded the Order of Courage by President Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin, attacked the Ministry of Defense’s statement as “not convincing” and “a blatant attempt to smear blame.”

He wondered how the Ministry of Defense could not have used drones or local sources to determine the location of soldiers in a school building.

The official death toll was changed from 63 to 89 by Moscow, but he kept raising suspicions about its validity.

Pegov warned in another post that apathy on the battlefield will lead to more tragedies. The conflict was referred to by the term “war” and “special military operation.” He said that if you asked him what was the most dangerous thing in war, he would answer, “not to bother.”

Denis Pushilin, the pro-Russian DPR leader who praised the “heroism” of the soldiers killed in the strike, was joined in his sentiment by Pegov.

Pushilin said on Telegram Wednesday that they know what it is to suffer losses. “Based on the information I have, I can say with certainty that there were many displays of courage and real heroism by the guys in this regiment.”

Defense Ministry Statement on the Detection and Deployment of Soldiers in the Crimea-Induced Streak in Ukraine

Russia’s defense ministry statement was also criticized by the Ukrainian military. Using phones with geolocation is a mistake. Serhii Cherevatyi, a spokesman for the Eastern group of the Ukrainian armed forces, said that the version looks a bit ridiculous.

I think that the Russians are now searching for who is to blame for their mistake, since they have been made aware of it. They are blaming each other.

The use of phones wasn’t the main reason. The main reason was that they were unable to covertly deploy these personnel. And we took advantage of that, having detected the target powerfully and destroyed it,” Cherevatyi added.

Meanwhile, Margarita Simonyan, the influential editor-in-chief of state-run network RT, on Wednesday welcomed the Russian Ministry of Defence’s investigation into the circumstances surrounding the strike, writing on Telegram that she hoped “the responsible officials will be held accountable.”

This is the first time that this has happened during a special military operation. I hope the names of these people will also be announced.

RIA Novosti reported that the governor of Russia’s southwest region held talks with the defense ministry leadership in Moscow.

How Russian troops are being exploited: The Makiivka attack on Russian troops in the early 1930s and the emergence of an arms depot

The US has provided armored vehicles to Ukraine before, including MRAP vehicles and armored utility vehicles. The US also paid for the refurbishment of Soviet-era T-72 tanks.

Biden affirmed the new commitment in a call with the German Chancellor. Germany will also send Ukraine new fighting vehicles, along with a Patriot missile battery to protect against Russian air attacks.

Those systems had been at the top of Zelensky’s wish list because it will allow his military to target Russian missiles flying at a higher altitude than they were able to target previously.

If the Russian account is accurate, it was the cell phones that the novice troops were using in violation of regulations that allowed Ukrainian forces to target them most accurately. Ukraine, however, has not indicated how the attack was executed. But the implications are broader and deeper, especially for how Russia is conducting its war now.

It is telling that days after the deadliest known attack on Russian servicemen, President Vladimir Putin called for a temporary ceasefire, citing the Orthodox Christmas holiday. The move was rightly dismissed by Ukraine and the US as a cynical attempt to seek breathing space amid a very bad start to the year for Russian forces.

Chris said that the problem with Russia is that their forces can’t communicate adequately and so they can’t break up big arms depots.

Other experts have a similar view of it. “Bad communications security seems to be standard practice in the Russian Army,” James Lewis, director of the Strategic Technologies Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), told me in an e-mail exchange.

The troops killed in Makiivka seem to have been recent conscripts, part of a larger picture of Russian soldiers being shipped to the front lines with little training and deeply sub-standard equipment and weapons.

Indeed, a number of the most recent arrivals to the war are inmates from Russian prisons, freed and transferred immediately to the Ukrainian front. One can only imagine how appealing the use of cell phones would be to prisoners accustomed to years of isolation with little or no contact with the outside world.

The deputy defense minister for logistics replaced the four star general after a shakeup in the ministry a month earlier. The location of the arms depot, adjacent to the Makiivka recruits, would likely have been on Mizintsev’s watch.

Still, Putin-favorite Sergei Shoigu remains defense minister — as recently as Saturday, before the Makiivka attack, telling his forces in a celebratory video: “Our victory, like the New Year, is inevitable.”

The WIRED World in 2023: A Story of the Digital Age for Fighting and Defending the Confrontation of the Global Warfare

Digital technologies will transform confrontation and conflict in the year 2300, as they are transparent and precision. The combination will lead to armed forces that are not just people operating equipment, but rapidly evolving teams of inhabited, uninhabited and autonomously capable. This is a process that starts out by augmenting how today’s armed forces organize, operate, and train, but as technology advances and experience grows, it will be as transformative as Airbnb has been to accommodation or Uber to transportation. The Digital Age will drive the most profound transformation in how states confront and conflict. The winners will be bold enough to move quickly and the loser will have succumbed to the comforts of change for a long time.

This story is from the WIRED World in 2023, our annual trends briefing. You can get a copy of the magazine and read more stories from the series here.

Despite this transformation, the nature of war will never change: It will be about killing people and breaking their stuff faster than they can do it to you. It will still be a contest of wills, an aspect of the human condition that is far from being eradicated for all its ferocity, irrationality, and despair. The outcome will remain an unscripted mix of reason, emotion, and chance. Technology does not change how we fight.