Taiwan’s No-Fly Zone Revisited: State of the Art and the Perspectives for the Future of the United States and China

US officials have expressed concern that those moves could be precursors to even more aggressive steps by China in the coming months meant to assert its authority over the island. The US has sent defensive weapons to Taiwan in hopes of creating a huge cache in case of China moving onto the island.

“The volume, the number of Chinese intercepts at sea and in the air have increased significantly over five years,” Milley said, though he offered no further details on the figure.

The visit by Pelosi underscored concerns within the administration of Biden about Beijing’s designs on Taiwan. Even before the speaker touched down in Taipei in August, Beijing had stepped up its rhetoric and aggressive actions toward the island, including sending warplanes into Taiwan’s self-declared air defense identification zone several times.

President Joe Biden has suggested the US military believes a potential trip by Pelosi and other lawmakers would pose security risks. The Pentagon has not said if officials have briefed the California Democrat directly, but they say there are concerns about China establishing a no-fly zone or increasing unsafe intercepts of US and allied ships and aircraft.

Officials tell CNN the aim is to have a solid look at any changes in patterns of Chinese military activity. There are many incidents between the two armies that aren’t made public. For example, in June, a US C-130 transport plane being operated by US special forces had some type of encounter with Chinese aircraft, but the Pentagon has yet to publicly acknowledge the incident.

In one of the most serious recent incidents, the Australian government said in February that a Chinese warship allegedly used a laser to “illuminate” an Australian Air Force jet in what Canberra called a “serious safety incident.”

“Acts like this have the potential to endanger lives,” the Australian Defence Force said in a statement at the time, adding it strongly condemns the “unprofessional and unsafe military conduct.” In the past, pilots have reported flashes of light in their vision, as well as temporary blind spots, caused by laser attacks.

China isn’t the only country that defends its island nation: Beijing’s defence white paper discusses the case of disputed islands

“Indo-Pacific countries shouldn’t face political intimidation, economic coercion, or harassment by maritime militias,” Austin said in a keynote speech to the Shangri-La Dialogue, Asia’s premier defense conference.

“The development of China’s national defense aims to meet its rightful security needs and contribute to the growth of the world’s peaceful forces,” the country’s 2019 defense white paper said. “China will never threaten any other country or seek any sphere of influence.”

Earlier this month, a US Navy warship challenged Chinese claims to disputed islands in the South China Sea, the US 7th Fleet said in a statement – the second operation of its kind this week.

It is not certain whether Biden will make the same statement when he sits down with Xi. During a news conference ahead of his trip, Biden declined to say if he would reiterate his commitment to defend Taiwan with military force.

For his part, Xi is fond of using a specific metaphor to warn Biden against overstepping: “Those who play with fire will perish by it,” he told the US president over the telephone in July as House Speaker Nancy Pelosi was preparing to visit Taiwan with a congressional delegation.

The possibility that US forces would protect Taiwan if a Chinese invasion were to occur is becoming more likely according to US officials.

Taiwan is only about 120 miles off the coast of China. For more than 70 years, the two sides have been governed separately, but that hasn’t stopped China’s ruling Communist Party from claiming the island as its own – despite having never controlled it.

Reunification between China and Taiwan is inescapable, and Xi refuses to rule out the use of force. There have been major military exercises by the Chinese military near the island, which has heightened the tension between Beijing and Taipei.

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida Revisited in a Foreign Language: The Defense of the East Sea of Japan Announced Friday

Japan on Friday unveiled a new national security plan that signals the country’s biggest military buildup since World War II, doubling defense spending and veering from its pacifist constitution in the face of growing threats from regional rivals.

In an early evening televised address in Tokyo, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said the government had approved three security documents – the National Security Strategy (NSS), the National Defense Strategy, and the Defense Force Development Plan – to bolster Japan’s defense capabilities amid an increasingly unstable security environment.

The Self- Defense Forces of Japan can only use their name if they are defending the Japanese homeland, which is what Japan’s post World War II constitution says.

The Prime Minister earlier in December instructed his defense and finance ministers to secure funds to increase Japan’s defense budget to 2% of current GDP in 2027, according to Defense Minister Yasukazu Hamada.

Long-time rival China has been been growing its naval and air forces in areas near Japan while claiming the Senkaku Islands, an uninhabited Japanese-controlled chain in the Sea of Japan, also known as the East Sea, as its sovereign territory.

From its west, Japan has been watching the buildup of North Korea’s missile arsenal. Pyongyang has tested missiles on 34 occasions this year, including firing one over Japan in October for the first time in five years, an act Kishida called “outrageous.”

Russia has built up islands to the north of Japan since the Ukrainian war began, raising concerns in Tokyo that it may need to defend its territories from multiple threats at once.

The current missile defense system in Japan only can shoot down an incoming target if it is within a 30 miles (50 kilometers) range. But China, for instance, has missiles that can be launched from a wide range of warplanes from distances as far away as 186 miles (300 kilometers).

The United States praised Tokyo for its new defense strategy and pledged to defend Japanese territory from an attack. The United States also operates several large military installations in Japan, including Yokosuka Naval Base, home to the US Navy’s 7th Fleet.

The US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin praised the release of Japan’s updated strategy documents, which show Japan’s commitment to uphold the international rules-based order.

“The Japanese military is incredibly capable. … AnkitPanda is a senior fellow in the nuclear policy program at the Carnegie Endowment for International peace and he says that Japan would have a very important role to play in a time of conflict in East Asia.

Given the scope of the changes to Japanese defense policy, the country’s main opposition party on Friday said Kishida hadn’t done enough to talk through the changes with them.

“There has been no provision of information, no explanations, and no discussion with the public or the Diet, even though we are deciding on things that will significantly change Japan’s post-war security policy,” Kenta Izumi, head of the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, said at a press conference.

As reports of the Japanese defense buildup have surfaced over the past few months, China has warned Tokyo of possible consequences of increasing its military power.

“Using this to guide the national security strategy will definitely lead Japan into a dangerous and barbaric drift, and the end is a huge dark vortex. We advise Japan to take it easy,” Global Times said.

Beijing fired missiles into Japan’s exclusive economic zone in August, after launching military drills in Taiwan, but analysts think Tokyo was already aware of Beijing’s plans on the island.

With the backing of Putin, it has opened the door for the United States and partners in the Pacific to shore up strained relationships with Beijing.

South Korea is worried that if US forces are involved in a conflict with China over Taiwan, North Korea will view the country in a different light.

Those might be the biggest initiatives, but they are far from the only events that have left China increasingly isolated in its own backyard as it refuses to condemn the invasion of a sovereign country by its partner in Moscow while keeping military pressure on the self-ruled island of Taiwan.

Analysts say all these things would have likely happened without the war in Ukraine, but the war, and China’s backing of Russia, has helped grease the skids to get these projects done.

The Prime Minister of Japan told a defense conference in Singapore last summer that he had a “strong sense of urgency” about the future of Ukraine.

In December, Kishida followed that up with a plan to double Tokyo’s defense spending while acquiring weapons with ranges well outside Japanese territory.

The situation in Ukraine has made the Japanese people feel less safe, and this has made them more vulnerable as a nation.

State of the art in the Indo-Pacific: Beijing’s military budget and a key alliance between the US, Japan, Australia and India

The People’s Liberation Army has been growing and modernizing its forces for years. On Sunday, Beijing announced its military budget for 2023, which will increase 7.2%. It marked the first time in the past decade that the military’s budget growth rate has increased for three consecutive years.

“The armed forces should intensify military training and preparedness across the board, develop new military strategic guidance, devote greater energy to training under combat conditions and make well-coordinated efforts to strengthen military work in all directions and domains,” outgoing Premier Li Keqiang said in a government work report.

It is essential for peace and stability in the Korean Peninsula as well as the security and prosperity of the region, said Foreign Minister Park Jin to CNN recently.

It signed a mulitibillion-dollar deal with Poland, Ukraine’s neighbor to the West and part of the US-led NATO alliance, for all of those items. And it is selling them in the region as well.

The former President looked to work with Bejing because he didn’t like Washington. The analysts said Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has shown himself wanting to work with the US and its allies and that he never really showed appreciation for that from China.

“It is difficult for the new Marcos administration to justify accommodating Beijing’s policy preferences when previous attempts at doing so by the previous government were not reciprocated,” said Jeffrey Ordaniel, director of maritime security at the Pacific Forum and an assistant professor at Tokyo International University.

The case of the Philippines Coast Guard sailors being blinded by alaser from the China Coast Guard has helped to make the case for a stronger alliance with Washington.

In the region, Singapore and Vietnam have become more willing to open up to the US. They don’t want China to dominate Southeast Asia,” Ordaniel said.

But the Ukraine war has not been helpful in one key American partnership in the Indo-Pacific, the informal Quad alliance linking the US, Japan, Australia and India, according to analysts.

“When the US, Australia, and Japan tried to condemn Russia through a joint statement, India refused…. The topic of Russia being in the region can’t be discussed since India claims that the Quad only deals with issues in the Pacific.