Taiwan’s response to Pelosi’s visit to the United States is not a ‘diplomatic roadmap’ for raising the foreign diplomacy of Taiwan
The White House is declining to say whether it supports the planned meeting between McCarthy and Taiwan’s president. When Pelosi was planning to go to Taiwan, administration officials tried to discourage her from doing so but Biden did not ask her to cancel.
At that time, Beijing encircled the island democracy with unprecedented military drills – firing multiple missiles into its surrounding waters and sending dozens of warplanes speeding across a sensitive median line dividing the Taiwan Strait.
It also cut off contact with the United States over a number of issues from military matters to combating climate change, in retaliation for what it viewed as a violation of its sovereignty.
Washington was slammed for allowing Tsai to stop in the US as she traveled to and from official visits in Central America.
When setting out on her international tour late last month, Tsai struck a defiant tone, telling reporters that her tour wouldn’t be affected by external pressure.
That doesn’t mean, however, that Beijing won’t be closely watching Tsai’s movements as it calibrates its response – and decides how much military might to flex over her meeting with an American lawmaker on American soil.
“(A less overtly aggressive response) would imply that Beijing does not wish to escalate tension with the US to a level that can risk getting out of hand,” said Steve Tsang, director of the SOAS China Institute in London.
The opacity of China’s system – and the potential for competing interests within its vast bureaucracy – also make it difficult to accurately predict its response.
Washington and Beijing are struggling to stabilize their communication amid flaring tensions over issues from a downed suspected Chinese surveillance balloon to semiconductor supply chains – raising the stakes of potential damage to that relationship if Beijing lashes out as it did when Tsai met Pelosi.
“Tsai’s trip is not simply a ‘graduation trip’ [as she finishes her term ]. Lin Ying Yu, an international relations professor at Taiwan’s Tamkang University, says it is an assist for raising the foreign diplomacy of Taiwan.
That increased visibility – and enhanced cooperation with the US – has followed China’s mounting pressure on the island, which sits fewer than 110 miles (177 kilometers) from the mainland coast.
China’s Communist Party claims the self-governing democracy as its own despite never having controlled it, and has vowed to take the island, by force if necessary.
The party has taken many steps to bolster its military capabilities over the course of the last decade as it has stepped up its economic and diplomatic pressure on Taiwan.
That’s driven concerns, among some in Washington, that Beijing is preparing for an invasion, though China’s official language still suggests that scenario is not its preferred option for achieving the claimed goal of “reunification.”
Congress has been a pillar of increasing American support for Taiwan in recent years. Lawmakers regularly visit the island and drive bipartisan legislation enhancing support and cooperation.
An official visit by the US to Taiwan is not a necessity in order to maintain Washington’s “One China” policy.
Pelosi’s trip – the first from a lawmaker of that rank to the island in 25 years – generated a fever pitch of nationalist and anti-US rhetoric in mainland China.
As Taiwan prepares for a presidential election in January, a fierce response could push voters away from Taiwan’s main opposition party Kuomintang (KMT), widely seen as more friendly toward Beijing.
Ma’s State Visit to China, a “Measurement of Taiwan’s Integrity and Integrity with the United States,” MacKay, U.S. Senator Ursula von der Leyen
Ma’s office said the trip was personal and centered around a pilgrimage to his family’s tomb. But the former president also held lengthy meetings with top Chinese Communist Party officials on Taiwan affairs.
Ma’s tour is a “once in a half a century opportunity to send a conciliatory message between the two sides, Beijing shouldn’t want to tank that,” said Sung, the political scientist.
This week, as Tsai is expected to meet with McCarthy, French President Emmanuel Macron and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will head to China – an important opportunity that Xi may not want to overshadow with military posturing.
An aggressive response could cause a confrontation with the US six months after it was called out during a face-to-face meeting by Vice President Joe Biden.
Tsai will gather with McCarthy and a bipartisan group of US lawmakers at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library in California’s Simi Valley, McCarthy’s office said in a press release earlier this week.
While in Central America, she visited two of the 13 countries that recognize Taiwan but not Beijing as a legitimate government.
Even though the U.S. does not officially recognize the island of Taiwan, it remains firmly supportive of the island.
Starting last weekend, China’s People’s Liberation Army held live-fire joint force training exercises for its air force, navy and ground forces — preparation, China has suggested, for much larger drills that could once again disrupt international shipping lanes and encircle Taiwan, should Tsai go through with the meeting with McCarthy.
Taiwan’s foreign ministry called Beijing’s threats “increasingly absurd and unreasonable” on Tuesday, saying Taiwan “does not accept interference or suppression by any country for any reason, and will not set limits on itself because of intimidation or interference.”
His visit was strongly criticized by the ruling political party of Taiwan.
“We will closely follow the development of the situation and resolutely safeguard national sovereignty and territorial integrity,” the consulate said in a Monday statement – one of multiple condemnations from Chinese officials in recent weeks as reports of the meeting emerged.
“Taiwan will not back down, and friends in the US who support Taiwan and Taiwan-US relations will not back down either. Democratic partners will only become more united and have more frequent exchanges,” the statement said.
A Source Close to McCarthy: The Tsai Meeting and The United States Relations with China During His Visit to the Island of Corina
A source close to McCarthy tells CNN that the meeting, which is happening in his home state at the Reagan Presidential Library just four months into his speakership, is an important moment for McCarthy, who made creating a select committee on China one of his top priorities and who views the US relationship with China as a central issue of our time.
Wednesday’s meeting is also expected to include Rep. Pete Aguilar of California, who is a member of Democratic leadership, and the leaders of the new select committee on China, among others, according to a copy of the invite list obtained by CNN.
Last week, Tsai met with three US senators in New York as well as with McCarthy. Sources familiar with the meeting said Republican and Democratic senators met with a man named Tsai. The meetings were reported by the Wall Street Journal.
His meeting could be considered less provocative than Nancy Pelosi’s visit to the island in August, a trip the Biden administration quietly sought to dissuade her from taking given the potential for ratcheting up tensions in the region.
Both Pelosi and McCarthy want to demonstrate American support for the self-governing island and neither wants to be seen backing down in the face of threats from China.
In his public comments, Biden has gone further. He has said four times as president he would use US military power to defend Taiwan if China were to invade.