The Debt Crisis in the U.S. During the 2011 Bridging Season: Democratic Leaders Revisite the Problem of Budget Reconciliation
If there is no agreement on the debt limit, there could be a global financial crisis. The Treasury Department wants to keep paying bills on time.
Failure to act will cause huge consequences for the U.S. economy, forcing American officials to make a choice between the payment of interest on the country’s debt and continuation of assistance like Social Security checks. The threats from Republicans recall brinkmanship in 2011, when congressional Republicans sought to pressure President Barack Obama to accept similar spending cuts in exchange for raising the debt limit.
Goldman Sachs economists warned in an analysis this week that bipartisan support to raise the debt limit “will be necessary, but hard to achieve,” and that the United States could veer the closest it had come to the economic tumult of 2011 since that standoff. Only a small number of Republicans and a small number of Democrats are going to serve in the House in the next five years.
The Republican senator from North Carolina said in an interview that he would like them to do it now that he is retiring at the end of the year. “We all know that on Feb. 1, the 2024 presidential races start, so you’re automatically already in the political season before you do anything next year, and I would hate for one side or the other to take the debt ceiling and to use it for the purposes purely being political.”
Some Democratic lawmakers had floated using the fast-track budget reconciliation process to raise the debt limit, thus shielding it from a Republican filibuster. The vote should be bipartisan, according to the leaders of the party.
The most productive time of the year on Capitol Hill is after the election and before the House of Representatives takes over, when the current congress tries to cram some of their most important work into a few weeks.
Lawmakers worked to cover as many priorities as they could into the package, which is likely the last significant bill of the current Congress. They are racing to complete passage before a midnight Friday deadline or face the prospect of a partial government shutdown going into the Christmas holiday.
Second, the newly elected Congress will be sworn in on January 3. In the Senate, Democrats will have a 51-47 majority, but the House will be under the control of Republicans. Everything resets in the new Congress, and lawmakers will have to start from scratch on anything they don’t finish up this month.
WASHINGTON — Congressional leaders unveiled a government-wide $1.7 trillion spending package early Tuesday that includes another large round of aid to Ukraine, a nearly 10% boost in defense spending and roughly $40 billion to assist communities across the country recovering from drought, hurricanes and other natural disasters.
The Senate passed the massive year-long funding bill Thursday and is waiting for the House to do the same before it can go to President Joe Biden’s desk. But, having been down this road before, senators also tried to buy a little extra time by also clearing on Thursday afternoon a bill to extend the government funding deadline by one week, to December 30. The House is expected to do the same on Friday before voting on the broader funding bill.
Kevin McCarthy, the current leader of the Republicans, does not yet have the votes of many of the most conservative Freedom Caucus Republicans and is being encouraged to take more concrete stands against spending. Finding a funding agreement that can pass through the House and the Senate and get President Joe Biden’s signature gets much more difficult starting January 3.
In addition to writing checks, Congress authorizes government activity through policy bills, including the must-pass National Defense Authorization Act, which authorizes $858 billion in annual defense spending.
The House voted to give the military a 4.6% pay raise, provide new support for NATO, and retool US air power and land defense efforts. It also rescinds a Covid-19 vaccine requirement for service members, a move that Biden has opposed.
The bill must be approved by the Senate before it can be signed into law by the president. As soon as Thursday the Senate could vote.
The Census and Taxes: What the Trustees of the 1922 Insurrection (Deadlines Funding) Do Republicans Really Need
How much more does the government spend than it takes in? The government is running a deficit of $336 billion for fiscal year 1922 which started in October and is $20 billion less than the comparable year-ago period.
When Republicans take control of the House in January 2021, they will shut down the select committee looking into the January 6 insurrection. GOP lawmakers plan to dig into the committee’s activities.
But first, the committee, which features Democrats and two anti-Trump Republicans, will issue its much-anticipated report on December 21. Also look for the committee to recommend the Department of Justice prosecute Trump or members of his inner circle.
Meanwhile, Jack Smith, the newly appointed special counsel, has been busy ramping up a pair of criminal probes involving the former president, all of which could explode into public view if charges are ultimately brought. Smith has worked on a lot of work.
There’s probably no time for a thorough review, and Republicans will have little appetite for a Trump tax investigation when they take control of the House.
The New York Times published some of Trump’s tax information in 2020. But there could be a political cost to simply releasing the returns since Democrats obtained them in order to scrutinize IRS audit policy. Read more about his taxes.
Source: https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/12/politics/congress-deadlines-funding-what-matters/index.html
What’s in the bill to stop Insurrection 2.0? Bipartisan analysis of the Senate omnibus spending bill to avert a shutdown
There is a bipartisan plan to make sure that election law is clear and that there is no chance of another January 6, 2021. Read here about what’s in the bill, which is specifically designed to guard against Insurrection 2.0.
There are competing versions of the proposal in both the House and Senate, meaning there’s no time to pass it. The Senate version has bipartisan support. Once the Republicans take control of the House, they may not be interested in the legislation.
If the Electoral Count Act can pass, it could be slipped into that massive spending bill. It has not gotten the attention it should, but it could be a good example of legislators working together.
The House voted Wednesday evening to pass a stopgap bill to avert a government shutdown at the end of this week with funding currently set to expire on Friday at midnight. Democrats and Republicans voted in favor with nine of the Republicans voting in favor.
The announcement on Tuesday evening that a framework deal had been reached for a broader spending bill represented a breakthrough in negotiations, but there is still more work to be done now for lawmakers to finalize the fine print and the specifics of what the sprawling legislation will include.
Senate Appropriations Committee Chairman Patrick Leahy said in a statement that he and ranking Republican member Richard Shelby and House Appropriations Committee Chairwoman Rosa DeLauro “reached a bipartisan, bicameral framework that should allow us to finish an omnibus appropriations bill that can pass the House and Senate and be signed into law by the President.”
On Wednesday, Shelby said the top line is about $1.7 trillion, but would not elaborate. Shelby said the exact allocations to the different government agencies are still being negotiated.
A bipartisan agreement for a full-year government funding deal has faced challenges due to disagreement between the two parties over how much money should be spent.
Republicans are critical of recent domestic spending by Democrats and argue that measures Democrats have passed while they have been in control of both chambers of Congress, like a $1.9 trillion pandemic relief bill and a sweeping health care and climate bill, are wasteful and will worsen inflation.
Democrats counter by saying those measures were necessary to help the country recover from the devastating impact of the pandemic as well as to tackle other critical priorities. Democrats say there should not be less money for government operations next year due to Covid, health care and climate.
The bill, which runs for 4,155 pages, includes about $772.5 billion for non-defense discretionary programs and $858 billion in defense funding and would last through the end of the fiscal year in September.
The spending package includes about $45 billion emergency assistance to Ukraine as it battles Russia’s invasion, according to Sen. Patrick Leahy, the Democratic chairman of the Senate Appropriations Committee. If the American assistance to Ukraine is approved, it would be the biggest American aid to date and ensure enough money will flow into the war effort for months to come.
“The bitterness of winter has descended on Eastern Europe, and if our friends in Ukraine hope to triumph Russia, America must stand firmly on the side of our democratic friends abroad,” said Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y.
The GOP’s Electoral Count Act: Biden’s No-Go Theorem and the Choice Between State and Local Government
The legislation also includes historic revisions to federal election law that aim to prevent any future presidents or presidential candidates from trying to overturn an election. The Electoral Count Act has been overhauled in response to former President Donald Trump’s efforts to convince Republican lawmakers to not certify the victory of Joe Biden.
McConnell has warned that he would seek another short-term patch into next year if the fiscal year 2023 spending measure fails to gain bipartisan support this week, meaning that the new Republican majority in the House would get to shape the package.
Leahy argued against that approach in releasing the bill saying, “the choice is clear. We could either do our jobs and fund the government or we could abandon our responsibilities without a real path forward.
McConnell said the GOP’s negotiations were successful in the end. He framed the longer-term spending bill as a victory for the GOP, even as many will undoubtedly vote against it. Republicans increased defense spending more than Biden’s request, while cutting back on some of the increase he wanted for domestic spending.
The Director of the Office of Management and Budget said neither side got everything it wanted in the deal. But she praised the measure as “good for our economy, our competitiveness, and our country, and I urge Congress to send it to the President’s desk without delay.”
The 2023 Homeland Security Spending Package: A Bad Christmas Song for the U.S., a Failure of the Senate, or How Congress Will Pass It
The spending on non-defense programs will increase by about 6%. The increase in medical care for veterans with VA is part of the reason for the expansion of health care services. The funding increases for agencies like the Environmental Protection Agency and the National Park Service are not kept up with inflation, according to some environmental advocacy groups.
The bill’s unveiling was delayed by haggling over language related to location of the FBI’s future headquarters. Maryland lawmakers have argued that ensuring predominately Black communities get their fair share of federal investments should be more thoroughly considered as part of the selection process. They are advocating to build the headquarters in Maryland’s Prince George’s County which is a majority-Black county. Virginia is also competing for the headquarters.
A Senate Democratic aide said Schumer worked to include language in the spending bill so that the General Service Administration conduct separate and detailed consultations with lawmakers from Maryland and Virginia.
Lawmakers are nearing completion of the 2023 spending package nearly three months late. It was supposed to be finished before the fiscal year began.
The last time Congress passed its spending bills was in 1996, when the Senate finished work on the last day of the budget year. President Bill Clinton signed it on the same day.
The spending bill is expected to get a vote in the Senate and be considered by the House, but not before at least 10 Republican senators support it. Legislators voiced concerns about passing legislation containing thousands of pages on short notice, the same thing that happened with recent catchall spending bills.
The Democrats are expecting us to pass the bill by the end of the week, according to Sen. Rick Scott. It’s insane.
McConnell said that many of his colleagues were unhappy with the process. But he cited national security concerns for wanting to pass the bill and said failure to do so would “give our Armed Forces confusion and uncertainty” while China pours money into new research and weapons for its military.
The annual dash to fund the government is starting to sound like a bad Christmas song: There are 12 spending bills, 1.7 trillion, 4,000-plus pages, a massive end-of-year vote, and a lifeline for the lobster industry.
Democrats are the ringleaders this year, but next year it will be Republicans in charge of the House and they’ll have to either make good on pledges never to do it this way again or we’ll find members of Congress and senators right back here again, aching to be home for the holidays rather than voting on things they should have done earlier in the year.
The magic minute allows party leaders to speak as long as they want, and Kevin McCarthy could do this with the last-minute work. The California Republican, who’s hoping to become speaker in the new year, has promised not to let government funding work this way.
The Trump Legacy of the Omnibus: Addressing the State of the Art in the U.S. Senate and Senate Using Community Project Funding
Recent memory is littered with such threats. President Donald Trump promised to veto any “omnibus” bill, endured a government shutdown and then ended up signing versions throughout the rest of his presidency.
“A lot of Sturm und Drang, a lot of ups and downs, but the end, a great result that really helped the American people,” said Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer.
The Kentucky Republican said on the Senate floor that there are only two options this week. We must give our armed forces the resources that they need or we will deny them.
McConnell focused on the defense spending, but there was so much more, including billions earmarked by lawmakers for projects in their home states and districts.
The return of the earmarking progress, now called Community Project Funding, allows even those lawmakers who will vote against the omnibus to direct spending back home. The requests for appropriations on the website of the New York lawmaker is a notable example. They include taxpayer money for a wastewater plant in Greenwich, a police station in Moriah, a childcare facility in Ogdensburg, among others. She will probably join other House Republicans and oppose the final bill.
A group of House Republicans who voted against McCarthy are hoping to play a significant role in the debate over the debt ceiling after they made it part of the speakership negotiations. As part of those talks, McCarthy indicated he would not take up a debt ceiling increase without “commensurate fiscal reforms” or a budget agreement, according to a slide presentation obtained by CNN.
Schumer said he will wait to negotiate with McCarthy on that topic until next year, but had this warning that the House GOP leader must listen to more moderate Republicans.
A majority of Republicans in the House and the Senate are not from this country, as claimed by Schumer. “And this election showed them – I’ve talked to them – that following MAGA is like Thelma and Louise, going over a cliff.”
The Biden-Vanigas Omnibus: a Massive Government Funding Package for Emergency Assistance to Ukraine, Medical Research, Disaster Recovery, and Emergency Housing
The omnibus was not just about spending and keeping the government’s lights on. Lawmakers threw in some extra packages because they didn’t have the time to work on them.
But for many reasons – lawmakers are frequently distracted by other matters like judicial nominations, for instance – these things get delayed until the last minute.
But mostly, it seems like leaders have found it’s easier to ram something through when the vote is framed as must-pass and it’s the only thing standing between them and the holidays.
President Joe Biden on Thursday signed a huge government funding bill that officially avoids a governmentShutdown, ending a year of historic progress.
Biden wrote in a tweets that it will invest in medical research, safety, veteran health care, disaster recovery, and get crucial assistance to Ukraine.
The bill from Congress was delivered to the White House on Wednesday. The bill was delivered to the President for his signature by White House staff on a regularly scheduled commercial flight,” a White House official told pool reporters.
It’s at least the second time this year that an important bill has been flown to Biden for his signature. A staffer on a trip to Asia was responsible for carrying a bill authorizing over thirty billion dollars in aid to Ukraine. Biden signed the bill while overseas.
The sweeping package includes roughly $45 billion in emergency assistance to Ukraine and NATO allies, an overhaul of the electoral vote-counting law, protections for pregnant workers, an enhancement to retirement savings rules and a ban on TikTok on federal devices.
It will provide a boost in spending for disaster aid and college access, more support for the military and veterans, and more funds for the US Capitol Police according to one summary by the top Republican. The bill contains provisions that could disenroll up to 19 million people from the Medicaid program for low-income Americans.
Some measures that were included in the bill but were left out were fought to include. An expansion of the child tax credit, as well as multiple other corporate and individual tax breaks, did not make it into the final bill. Neither did legislation to allow cannabis companies to bank their cash reserves – known as the Safe Banking Act – or a bill to help Afghan evacuees in the US gain lawful permanent residency. And the spending package did not include a White House request for roughly $10 billion in additional funding for Covid-19 response.
Biden, McCarthy, and the Pain of Running America: The Challenge of the 2024-2020 House Majority Reshuffle for a Speaker of the House
Republicans’ take over of the House this week will usher in a two-year political era that threatens to bring governing showdowns and shutdowns as a GOP speaker and Democratic president try to wield power from opposite ends of Pennsylvania Avenue.
The possibility that former President Donald Trump could be indicted is very high, which could lead to further turmoil in the country. The presidential election in 2024 will cause more political harm as both parties fear that control of Congress and the White House are up for grabs.
Abroad, the war in Ukraine brings the constant, alarming possibility of spillover into a NATO-Russia conflict and will test the willingness of American taxpayers to keep sending billions of dollars to sustain foreigners’ dreams of freedom. President Joe Biden is faced with more challenges from China and Iran, while he leads the West in this crisis.
For McCarthy, the challenge will be in balancing the interests of House Republicans eager to use their leverage on the debt ceiling to enact priorities that would otherwise be ignored by the White House and the Senate – but also finding a deal with Democrats without being seen as caving into their demands. One member of the House has the ability to call for a vote to oust McCarthy from the speakership.
Government shutdowns are more likely as Democrats enter the minority under a new generation of leaders. The GOP will investigate Hunter Biden, the president’s son, and the crisis at the southern border. The GOP could suffer, however, if voters think they overreached – a factor Biden will use as he eyes a second term.
Democrats are still celebrating the expansion of their majority in the Senate. The chamber split at 50-50 for two years, but is now 51-47 in their favor. Wasting no time in seeking to carve out a reputation among voters as a force for bipartisanship and effective governance, the president will travel to Kentucky this week. The infrastructure package that passed with bipartisan support in 2020 will be highlighted during an event he will be a part of.
Dem Demographics and the Future of the GOP: Donald Trump’s Case against Insurrection, a Criminal Insight and a First Look at the State of the Union
Attorney General Garland could soon make a decision on whether to indict Trump for trying to steal the 2020 election and for his collection of classified documents.
The House January 6 committee referred Trump to criminal proceedings due to evidence of insurrection against him, and if he did break the law, his case is even more complicated. A failure to prosecute him would set a precedent that puts ex-presidents above the law.
“If a president can incite an insurrection and not be held accountable, then really there’s no limit to what a president can do or can’t do,” outgoing Illinois GOP Rep. Adam Kinzinger, a member of the select committee, said on CNN’s “State of the Union” Sunday.
“If he’s not guilty of a crime, then I, frankly, fear for the future of his country because now every future president can say, ‘Hey, here’s the bar.’ And the bar is, do everything you can to stay in power.”
Trump pitched America into the next presidential campaign with his November announcement. But unusual doubts cloud his future after seven years dominating the Republican Party. His limp campaign launch, bleating over his 2020 election loss and the poor track record of his hand-picked election-denying candidates in the midterms have dented Trump’s aura.
Potential alternative figureheads for his populism, nationalist culture war politics are emerging who could test the ex-president’s bond with his conservative base. Even as he fends off multiple investigations, Trump must urgently show he’s still the GOP top dog as more and more Republicans consider him a national liability.
Biden is edging closer to giving Americans a new piece of history – a reelection campaign from a president who is over 80. There was some anxiety about a possible reelection run among Democrats because of his success in staving off a Republican sweep in the midterms. And Biden’s strongest card is that he’s already beaten Trump once. Even so, he wouldn’t be able to play that card if another GOP nominee emerges. The current president is over the age of 50.
Polls show that voters don’t like Trump and Biden and so, it is the best bet as the White House opens in 3 years. There is no certainty that this will be the case at the end of the year due to the shifting politics and events in the months to come.
Source: https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/02/politics/political-trends-2023-biden-mccarthy-trump/index.html
The Republican Debt Limit and the Post-Democracy Anarchy in the U.S., Politics with a Timetable
If the West experiences a recession this year, voters in the United States and Europe will be willing to spend billions of dollars to aid Ukraine if energy prices spike again.
Rarely has an economy been so hard to judge. 40-year-high inflation and tumbling stock markets coincide with historically low unemployment rates, which made people feel a sensation of economic anxiety. Can the Federal Reserve bring down the cost of living without triggering a recession that many analysts believe is going to happen in 2023, if it can do so in a harsh interest rate medicine?
Growth could be at risk because of Washington spending showdowns and potential government shutdowns. The economy is outside of the control of a political leader, but at the end of the year it will have a huge impact in an election that will define the country for the next decade.
McCarthy promised to take Social Security and Medicare cuts off the table. And he left open the possibility of cuts to defense programs, saying: “I want to make sure we’re protected in our defense spending, but I want to make sure it’s effective and efficient.”
It’s a recipe that – some fear – could take the nation to the brink of a potentially cataclysmic default, especially since some positions against raising the limit at all seem intractable.
“No,” Rep. Greg Pence, an Indiana Republican, said when asked by CNN if he would vote for a debt ceiling increase if it included “every” one of his priorities. That is what I hear back at home.
McCarthy told reporters that he thinks Biden would not want to be irresponsible and childish when it came to dealing with the economy of the country. Let us not play political games, we have a timetable here. We both have certain positions that we need to find a way to save for the american people.
GOP sources say Republicans have been talking about ways to increase the debt limit, such as capping domestic spending at fiscal year’s end, and bringing defense programs down to spending levels over the next decade.
The Working Class: A Blueprint for the Future of Social Security, Medicare and Social Security in the Mid-Radistrict South Carolina
You will always have a few people that are not in favor of everything. Nancy Mace told them to expect those people to exist. “That’s why it’s important to negotiate. We need to act that way because we are a divided Congress.
A member of the talks said that the conservative team met on Friday and Monday to discuss ideas for a balanced budget in the next 10 years, and plan to unveil a plan in the coming weeks.
Ringleaders of the group like Rep. Chip Roy of Texas have been in regular communication with McCarthy, and the group wants to meet with GOP leaders and House Budget Chairman Jodey Arrington of Texas as discussions intensify.
Scott’s plan didn’t make it far. McConnell said that the GOP wouldn’t include in its agenda a bill that sunsets Social Security and Medicare within five years.
“What we will have is a blueprint of what we will be fighting for,” South Carolina Rep. Ralph Norman, a member of the far-right House Freedom Caucus, told CNN. “Not touching Social Security, not touching Medicare … Every agency is being looked at on discretionary. We’re going to put it out for the American people. And it will shock people. … I think people will like what they see.
What Can You Do if Congress is Proposed to Protect Defense Spending? A Reply to Massie on the House Budget Committee, CNN Although Congress is Open”
Massie told reporters that it was a good point. What can you do if the Senate passes and the president signs it? Why would you even begin the discussion when there isn’t any chance of a positive outcome?
Yet with GOP defense hawks and appropriators vowing to protect defense spending, that limits the pool of money on the discretionary side of the budget where they can cut from.
While McCarthy is trying to build conference-wide consensus on what they will propose in exchange for raising the nation’s borrowing limit, some appropriators acknowledged they may wind up on the sidelines of the debate.
The congressman, who is a member of the House Appropriations Committee, told CNN that he will be the beneficiary or victim of what happens when the budget is released. “And I’ll be directly affected.”
“I think most everyone is in the camp of ‘can’t default.’ One of the members of the House Budget Committee is Steve Womack, a member of Arkansas. The only thing acceptable is if we are going to raise the debt ceiling without spending restraint.
McCarthy promised to put the bill on the floor before the end of March so the Treasury Department could choose which payments to prioritize if the debt ceiling is not raised.
Massie said one idea he has been advocating for is passing a continuing resolution “as soon as possible” that funds the government at 99% of its current levels and pairs it with a debt ceiling increase, just so they have a backup plan in case they are unable to come to an agreement on the debt ceiling or funding the government.
If talks between White House and McCarthy collapse, the plan will be a fallback according to Brian Fitzpatrick.
The Debt Ceiling: How Well Does the US Budget Survive a Covid-19 Crisis? Bank of America’s Chief Executive and the Economic Impact of the Inflation Reduction Act
The debt ceiling is the amount of money the US government can borrow in order to pay bills on time. And that means that Corporate America has to be ready for the worst.
The chief executive of Bank of America told CNN that the market and economy love stability and he hopes the politicians can resolve their issues. You cannot ignore the danger of default on the country’s debt.
Moynihan doesn’t like that idea. He told Harlow that there was an argument to be had about how to make sure we live within our means when it came to the debt ceiling.
“Congress has the purse strings. i would be careful about trying to restructure the US Constitution,” he said. “I think we should leave it alone and make sure it operates correctly.”
But he conceded that the government has needed to spend a lot more on various stimulus programs since 2020 due to the Covid-19 crisis, saying that the US had to take on “a lot of debt over the past couple of years to overcome the pandemic drag on the economy.”
Food inflation is coming down, not fast enough, but coming down. Inflation has fallen every month for the last six months, while take-home pay has gone up.
With that in mind, Moynihan said, Bank of America is still predicting a “mild recession” at some point in the future — but the start date keeps getting pushed. He argues that higher rates could be a drag on corporate profits, but the good news is most people are still working, earning good wages and spending.
Moynihan also didn’t seem overly concerned that any geopolitical tension between the US and China stemming from the recent spy balloon incident will have a lasting impact on the global economy.
National Economic Council director Brian Deese wrote on the White House website in January that the American Rescue Plan pandemic relief bill “facilitated a strong economic recovery and enabled the responsible wind-down of emergency spending programs,” thereby reducing the deficit; David Kelly, chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Funds, told CNN in October that the Biden administration does deserve credit for the recovery that has pushed the deficit downward. According to Deese, the Inflation Reduction Act will bring down deficits by more than $200 billion over the next decade.
Still, the deficit-reducing impact of that one bill is expected to be swamped by the deficit-increasing impact of various additional bills and policies Biden has approved.
The 2021-2020 Federal Business Application Rate: How President Biden and Donald Trump Created the First Million Jobs in the U.S.
Facts First: This is true. The federal government releases data on business applications for a full year, and this year there was more than 5 million applications. The number of business applications deemed to have a high likelihood of turning into a payroll business hit a record in 2021, and was the second-fastest total of all time.
Former President Donald Trump’s last full year in office, 2020, also set a then-record for total and high propensity applications. The surge in entrepreneurship began after millions of Americans lost their jobs. Some workers who had been out of work for a long time took the moment to start their own businesses; interest rates were low until a series of rate hikes started in the spring of 2022, and Americans had more money because of Biden and Trump’s economic policies.
The unemployment rate for black and african americans was close to the record low of 5.3% set in August 2019. The data series goes back to 1972. The rate was 9.2% in January 2021, the month Biden took office.
Despite all of the rhetoric, the largest drivers of the structural federal fiscal imbalance were enacted roughly fifty years ago.
Biden can argue that his policies have helped the country gain jobs faster than it would have otherwise. (As always, it’s debatable precisely how much credit the president deserves for job-creation.) Nonetheless, it is clear that there could only be such an extraordinary number of jobs added in 2021 and 2022 because there was such an extraordinary number of jobs lost in early 2020.
Source: https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/07/politics/fact-check-president-biden-state-of-the-union/index.html
The Implications of the Inflation Reduction Act Tax Credits for Electric Vehicles, Batteries, and Fueling in the United States
This claim needs to be explained. While Inflation Reduction Act tax credits will help save families money on their energy bills, it could take years for EV tax credits to become fully available.
Biden’s claim about energy savings is similar to an estimate from clean electricity nonprofit Rewiring America – which estimated last year that a US household could save $1,800 per year if they installed electric heat pumps to heat their water and heat and cool their air, replaced a gas car with an EV, and installed solar.
Ultimately, new electric vehicles will be eligible for up to $7,500. But there’s a big catch: in order to qualify for these tax credits, the vehicles’ final assembly must happen in North America. At the insistence of Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia, the IRA has strict requirements for how many electric vehicle and EV battery components must be made in the US or countries that have a free trade deal with the US.
The US Treasury Department is expected to issue guidance on critical minerals and batteries in March. But the complex requirements for these tax credits could take years to fully kick in as companies must move their supply chain to North America.
This provision passed because Manchin wanted the US to compete with China on electric vehicles, and it will eventually have the impact of bringing more EV and battery jobs to the US or countries it has a free trade agreement with. Several companies have already announced new factories in the US because of the measure.
But it’s also a complex provision that will take time to implement, likely meaning vehicle manufacturers won’t be able to offer the credit in the next couple years as they move their supply chains to the US and North America.
Source: https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/07/politics/fact-check-president-biden-state-of-the-union/index.html
Facts First: The American Rescue Plan Act Reduced the Child Poverty Rate in 2020 to 2021, and the State of the Union Revisited
Facts First: This is true. The child poverty rate was reduced in order to take advantage of the expanded child tax credit. The enhancement was responsible for most of the reduction.
The child poverty rate fell from 9.7% in 2020 to 5.2% in 2021, according to the US Census Bureau’s Supplemental Poverty Measure, which takes into account certain non-cash government assistance, tax credits and needed expenses.
As part of the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan Act that passed in March 2021, Congress enhanced the child tax credit for one year, beefing up payments to $3,600 for each child up to age 6 and $3,000 for each one ages 6 through 17, for lower- and middle-income families. Half the credit was paid in monthly installments during the summer and winter, while the parents could claim the other half when they filed their taxes.
Biden has taken steps to lower gas prices. In the wake of Russia’s invading of the Ukraine in early 2022, the Biden administration released 180 million barrels of oil from the national strategic oil reserve. The E15 gasoline, a blend that contains 15% of ethanol, was allowed to be sold after an emergency waivers was issued by the administration. A White House official noted Thursday that the price of gas today is lower than it was when the Russian invasion began.
As of the day of the State of the Union, the national average for a gallon of regular gas was $3.457, per data from the American Automobile Association. That was much lower than a record high of $5.016 in the middle of June. But it was still higher than the national average of $2.393 on Inauguration Day.
De Haan said Biden’s releases of oil from the strategic reserve put some downward pressure on the price of oil, but he wouldn’t call it significant.
Source: https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/07/politics/fact-check-president-biden-state-of-the-union/index.html
The Global Expansion of Authoritarian Rule: Obama’s Biden-Between Agenda and Freedom House’s 2020 State of the Union
In the past four years, presidents have created less than one million new jobs, but we have created 12 million new jobs in the past two years.
The economy quickly recovered that summer, growing at an annualized rate of 35.3% in the third quarter of 2020, the fastest pace on record. But the pace of economic growth began to stall in the winter before Biden took office.
While touting his efforts to stand up to authoritarian leaders in China and Russia, Biden painted himself as a champion of freedom and inaccurately claimed that democracy was spreading under his watch.
The claim is at odds with the data from Freedom House, which tracks democracy and human rights around the world. They say democracy has been in global decline over the past few years.
The group’s most recent annual report on the state of global democracy, released in February 2022, was aptly titled, “The Global Expansion of Authoritarian Rule.” Their report in the year 21st century was calledDemocracy under Siege.
The data from Freedom House shows that 60 countries experienced democratic backsliding in the previous year, while only 25 improved their position. The group highlighted backsliding in Sudan, Nicaragua and Afghanistan, where the Taliban reclaimed power when Biden withdrew all American troops from the country.
One year is a long time for a new report from Freedom House. Biden could only be expressing his opinion that autocratic regimes have failed on the world stage.
But the trends appear to be holding. For instance, after Russian President Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine last year, he initiated a domestic crackdown that rolled back the few remaining civil liberties that existed in Russia.
Source: https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/07/politics/fact-check-president-biden-state-of-the-union/index.html
The Impact of Non-Criteria Agreements on Employment and Wages in the U.S. and Beyond: CNN’s Alicia Wallace
In an interview with climate publication, Pete Buttigieg stated that the number of EV charging stations depends on which state they are in.
In addition to that, there is also a wide range in the cost of different kinds of chargers, so individual states have a lot of power in deciding what types ofcharging will be allowed on their roads. To be able to charge a car in 20 minutes to an hour with a DC fast charging station, you have to go on major highways and roads. Another kind of charger known as an L2 charger can take hours to charge a car to full. But DC fast chargers are much more expensive, costing around $100,000 compared to around $6,000 for an L2, Ellen Hughes-Cromwick, a senior resident fellow at the think tank Third Way, has told CNN.
The average hourly wage in the manufacturing industry was over $30 in January, according to preliminary data from the BLS. The national average wage was projected to be $33.03. I spoke to CNN’s Alicia Wallace.
Biden showed an example of a cashier at a burger place not being allowed to cross the street to go to another restaurant that paid more money, because she had to sign non-compete agreements.
This is partially true in the first place. Millions of rank-and-file employees and independent contractors, in addition to business executives across industries, have signed non-compete agreements that critics say suppress competition, wages and entrepreneurship. The Federal Trade Commission is working on a rule that would ban employers from forcing non-compete agreements on workers. But are burger chain workers really subject to those noncompete agreements? It is not likely anymore.
An investigation in Washington state in 2017 revealed that several fast-food chains, including Arby’s, Auntie Anne’s, Buffalo Wild Wings, Carl’s Jr., Cinnabon, Jimmy John’s, and McDonald’s, had been enforcing no-poaching rules that prevented employees from moving between franchises within the same chain – not, as Biden suggested, between rival chains. By 2018, all those chains agreed to end their no-poach practices at roughly 25,000 restaurants nationwide. From CNN’s David Goldman.
Source: https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/07/politics/fact-check-president-biden-state-of-the-union/index.html
How Do We Ensure Congress Keep the Programs the Same? Consumer Price Inflation: The Case Against President Biden and Senate Bill 2023
Food prices were up 10.4% in December 2022 from the year-before period, according to the latest available Consumer Price Index report released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Since hitting a 40-year high of 11.4%, food price inflation has steadily declined.
The inflation measure, the consumer price index, has an average change in the prices of a basket of consumer goods over time that has moderated recently. Within CPI and other indexes, there are various measures to gauge inflation. Most notably, “core” inflation measures that exclude items with more volatile price increases.
There are various ways to measure real wages. Real average hourly earnings declined 1.7% between December 2021 and December 2022, while real average weekly earnings (which factors in the number of hours people worked) declined 3.1% over that period. From CNN’s Daniel Dale and Alicia Wallace
Biden once again accused Republicans in Congress of attempting to change the programs, accusing them of wanting to do so. His comments elicited a lot of cheers from the Democrats, but not so many jeers from the Republicans.
Instead of making the wealthy pay their fair share, some Republicans, some Republicans want Medicare and Social Security to sunset. … If Congress keeps the programs the same, they would go away.
Legislators proposed raising Medicare’s eligibility age to be in line with Social Security’s normal retirement age, which is 67 for anyone born in 1960 or later. But they would also raise the normal retirement age for Social Security, as well as trim benefits for higher-income earners.
Source: https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/07/politics/fact-check-president-biden-state-of-the-union/index.html
Biden Doesn’t Support Defunding the Police: Fact Checks on the War in Yemen and the 2021 War in the State of the Union
During the 2020 presidential campaign, Biden told CBS, “No, I don’t support defunding the police.” Rather, he said, “I support conditioning federal aid to police based on whether or not they meet certain basic standards of decency and honorableness. They are able to demonstrate that they can protect the community.
It’s worth noting that the slogan “defund the police” means different things to different activists – from the dissolution of police forces to partial reductions in funding.
Facts first, it is absurd that there was world peace when Trump was in office, and that he called the world stable.
The civil war in Yemen was still going on after Trump left office. Saudi Arabia was supported in their military intervention in the war by arms sales from the US. The policy of Biden ended in 2021.
When Biden took office, the war in Afghanistan was still ongoing, despite Trump’s promise to end it. There were thousands of US troops in the country when Biden was sworn in, before he withdrew them all in 2021.
Source: https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/07/politics/fact-check-president-biden-state-of-the-union/index.html
The 2019 U.S. Border Patrol Arrived in 2020: A Report on the Debt and Medical Benefits of Soldiers Injured by Toxic Exposures
The civil war in Syria was still going on at a more isolated level than in the past. The Tigray region of Ethiopia was fighting a war. The drug war in Mexico was still leading to deaths and disappearances.
Additionally, the war in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region was still unresolved. The war began in 2014, but it was eventually settled into a frozen conflict with the Russian side occupying a large part of the eastern Donbas region. It escalated into a full-blown war when Russia invaded in February 2022, after Biden had already taken office. CNN’s Marshall Cohen.
It is true that the Biden administration is facing a record number of apprehensions along the border but Democrats and Republicans have different ideas on how to deal with it.
In fiscal year 2022, US Border Patrol encountered migrants more than 2.2 million times attempting to unlawfully cross the US southern border, according to federal data, marking a new record.
Facts First: This is partially true, but it lacks context. The US economy had experienced the worst job losses in its history from the Covid shutdowns.
Changes in fiscal policy should be made to address the rising costs of interest and other consequences of high and rising debt over the long term, according to the director of the budget office.
While Republican lawmakers have blamed Mr. Biden and Democrats for the rising deficits, the report makes clear that bipartisan legislation — and the Fed’s interest rate increases — are to blame for the jump in debt projections.
Newly enacted legislation in the past nine months will add about $1.5 trillion to cumulative deficits over the next decade, the budget office said. The expansion of health care benefits for military veterans who were exposed to toxic burn pits is one of the reasons for the increase. The bill passed in both houses of the legislature with majority of Republicans voting yes.
The legislation makes it easier for veterans who believe they were exposed to toxins during their service to receive medical benefits, by effectively presuming that any American service member stationed in a combat zone for the last 32 years could have been exposed. It also provides a dedicated stream of funding to treat ailments tied to those exposures.