Donald Trump is about Trump. What does he really want to accomplish in the 2024 GOP election? A survey of potential GOP presidential candidates who haven’t voted in the Midterms
They are trying to figure out what message the voters sent them, and how to adapt to what the country wants from them.
Several uncalled House races will determine control. And while it won’t decide the Senate majority, the still-important runoff election between Raphael Warnock and Herschel Walker in Georgia won’t take place until December 6.
Trump is eager to launch his 2024 campaign for a variety of reasons, including, but not limited to, his desire to close off momentum for other contenders (most notably Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis) and, perhaps, to try to insulate himself from his own mounting legal problems. He is facing a lot of criticism because of his role in the midterms, which he wants to change the story from.
Instead, the Republican Party – thanks to Trump – will be thrust directly into the 2024 race, with the former president demanding endorsements and fealty from elected officials who are still in the midst of trying to figure out what the heck just happened last week.
The Point: Trump is about Trump. The leader of the Republican Party doesn’t prioritize good over bad, but that’s okay.
Some potential 2024 Republican presidential contenders – such as Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis – have been noticeably absent. Donald Trump will speak at the conference Saturday and he is on a wave of support in the polls.
Due to the results from the Midterms, Trump was no longer seen as the GOP’s most electable candidate. In a survey done in November, only 35% of Republicans think that he gave them the best chance to take back the presidency. That was down from 50% in the previous year.
Most of the candidates who are in Trump’s position have won their primary. Take a look at the candidates who had the highest average in previous polls in the first half of the year before the primary.
Since 1972, about 75% of these candidates have gone on to win the nomination when they faced at least one major challenger. More than 70% of the time, those polling between 50% and 85% have won the primary.
It would be easy to dismiss Trump’s numbers as merely the product of high name recognition, but history suggests something different. The eventual nominees from this group include, among others, President Gerald Ford for 1976, Vice President George H.W. Bush for 1988 and Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole for 1996.
Candidates in DeSantis’ position haven’t been nearly as successful. 40% of the time since 1972 polling between 20% and 35% has led to a party nod.
Trump was especially struggling following Republicans’ underwhelming performance in last fall’s midterm elections. Over the last two months of November and December, his polling advantage over him decreased to 10 points on average. The share of Republicans who supported Trump went from 50% to 40%.
The reason was pretty clear: Much of the blame for the GOP’s historical midterm underperformance for an opposition party was laid at Trump’s feet. He supported many candidates who lied that the 2020 election wasn’t legitimate.
By going out and campaigning, Trump can remind Republicans what they liked about him in the first place. He can put the memories of a bad 2022 election behind him. The percentage of Republicans who now think he represents their best shot to win in 2024 is back up to above 40% in Marist surveys.
There was also a deal with Haley declaring her bid for the presidency. Even though her polling is a little better than before, it is still too much for the non- Trump vote.
The Fate of the Republican Party: Putting Its Heads to Work for the Future of the Party and Preventing Its Fate
I truly appreciate all those around the nation who have for many years encouraged me to run for president. I have given my all to serve the people of Maryland, but I don’t want my family to go through another campaign just because of the experience.
I would never take the position of a cabinet member if I ran for president. I have long said that I care more about ensuring a future for the Republican Party than securing my own future in the Republican Party. And that is why I will not be seeking the Republican nomination for president.
Since Donald Trump won the nomination in 2016, I have fought to make clear that our party cannot be successful if we put personality before principle, if our elected officials are afraid to say publicly what they freely admit behind closed doors, and if we can’t learn from our mistakes because of the political cost of admitting facts to be true. The party didn’t even bother with a platform in 2020. For too long, Republican voters have been denied a real debate about what our party stands for beyond loyalty to Mr. Trump. A cult of personality is no substitute for a party of principle.
I think the tide is finally turning. Republicans are tired of the drama and are open to new leadership. While I am optimistic about the future of the Republican Party, I am worried about the next election. We cannot afford to have Mr. Trump as our nominee and suffer defeat for the fourth consecutive election cycle. To once again be a successful governing party, we must move on from Mr. Trump. Several competent Republican leaders have the potential to step up and lead. The stakes are too high for me to be part of another pileup that might help Mr. Trump get the nomination.