What ads tell us about the upcoming election in New Hampshire?


The New Hampshire Tea Party: Nikki Haley in the White House and Trump’s Implications for Democrats and Lib Dems

“They are going to be pretty upset with their choices by Tuesday and that doesn’t matter who they pick.” said the New Hampshire native. They could have said that they would walk through a snowstorm in order to get to the polls and vote.

Still, what makes New Hampshire so harder to predict – and to poll – is that no one knows what its large portion of undeclared voters are going to do, said Jon McHenry, a Republican pollster with North Star Opinion Research.

Miller said, whether it be college educated or not, “whether it be close to the population centers, whether it be more rural, whether it be college educated.” The president did well, no matter what demographic you think.

“IfNikki Haley fails to win her home state, this will be a two-person race and she won’t be able to run for office after that,” Andrew is said to have said in a statement. “We’re taking the fight to Haley on her home turf, so we’re wasting no time.”

“It’s the Trump and Haley show in New Hampshire this week,” quipped Jim Merrill, a veteran Republican strategist in New Hampshire. It isn’t a contest between second and third place here, similar to the one in Iowa.

Haley accused Trump of putting on a “temper tantrum”. And, in a new ad, she’s painted Trump as having the same baggage as Biden.

“As you know, Nikki Haley in particular is counting on the Democrats and liberals to infiltrate the Republican primary,” he said, likely referring to the registered Democrats who have changed party affiliation.

Haley came in third in Iowa after Ron DeSantis. But Trump isn’t going after the Florida governor. Haley enjoys growing support in New Hampshire and is now within striking distance of Trump’s numbers.

The Future of the Democratic Party: The State of the Art in Atkinson, N.H., where Donald J. Trump meets Martha Stewart

“If you want to defend your honor, and if you want to defeat the radical left Democrats and save America, you must vote for your favorite president of all time, Donald J. Trump,” he told cheering supporters in Atkinson, New Hampshire.

Former President Donald Trump has a big event Friday in Concord, N.H., his third event in a week-long sprint of almost back-to-back rallies ahead of the state’s decisive Tuesday primary.

Since winning in Iowa, Trump has visited the Granite State almost every night. He’s going to need the votes of New Hampshire’s voters in order to get the election over.

Biden has the lowest approval rating of any president at this point before a potential reelection since Truman, and his unfavorable ratings are even higher.

Some Democrats think Biden will win in 2020 because of his opposition to Trump. They think Biden needs to focus more on Trump in his reelection ads and on abortion rights in the election because this is the first presidential election since the Dobbs decision.

Haley was the focus of the $1.7 million in ads airing right now in South Carolina. It might be a tougher sell than the former governor would like on her home turf.

South Carolina is similar to Iowa in that it has a very conservative electorate. In entrance polls, voters who thought beating Biden was the candidate quality they cared about the most broke for Trump.

The New Hampshire Campaign for President Biden, aka Dean Phillips: A Super PAC Campaign with Phillips, the DNC, and the Independents Moving the Needle

“I’m something of an expert on illusive creatures. So I challenged myself to find President Biden in New Hampshire during this primary season. I thought I was good at hiding. So I asked around, have you seen Joe? I feel bad for people who are looking for you all the time and don’t find you. I have been looking for him ever since. Even the Democratic primary debate. I kept seeing this guy, Dean, who’s everywhere.

We Deserve Better, the super PAC supporting Phillips, claims Phillips is seeing a “surge,” alleges that the DNC is “trying to suppress it” and features Phillips wondering whether there’s a conspiracy against him with the DNC pressuring the media.

The Democratic National Committee demoted New Hampshire to try and promote South Carolina as a place to go for Black voters in the early primary state lineup.

New Hampshire hasn’t gone quietly, and Phillips is hoping he can exploit that, sending a message and catapulting support for a presidential campaign. With the change in the calendar, Biden won’t be on the ballot. But Phillips trails in polls to a write-in Biden effort.

Meanwhile, Biden is running a Spanish-language ad in Arizona contrasting Biden and Trump, a veterans health care ad in Michigan, another in Arizona and Nevada about small businesses and another in Georgia and Nevada about prescription drug costs and insulin.

According to the New York Times, the principal super PAC has begun laying off staff. While in New Hampshire, his campaign pivoted to South Carolina, a state that votes in less than two weeks.

“Americans were promised to secure retirement. Haley has a plan that ends that. Haley’s plan cut social security benefits for 82% of Americans. Trump will not allow that to happen.

“There are now only two candidates who can win. There is a lot of drama and chaos. That’s Donald Trump. We all know the other is honest and hopeful. That’s Haley. We have a chance to reset the election for the entire nation because of her campaigning in New Hampshire. Nikki is the only one who can beat Donald Trump to move America forward.”

Independents Moving the Needle is a new group that’s popped up to support Haley since Iowa. The group has spent almost $1 million in just a few days, featuring a pair of ads. Several people are saying why they are supporting Haley.

New Hampshire has taken a bit of a back seat to Iowa in the ad-spending race, but still $76 million has gone into ads trying to reach New Hampshire voters. (Iowa saw the most by far with $124 million.)

Chris Sununu, a popular New Hampshire Republican, will be the pitch man for the superPAC supporting Haley, which has spent $22 million in New Hampshire.

Source: [What campaign ads tell us about the state of the 2024 election](https://politics.newsweekshowcase.com/there-are-10-questions-about-politics-and-2024/) ahead of New Hampshire

The latest campaign for the GOP presidential nomination: CNN and NPR analysis of $17 million ads a day over the past week (plus an analysis by Slater)

The campaign for the Republican presidential nomination has spent $17 million in ads in the past week, according to Ad Impact and analyzed by NPR.