Science and the United States as a leader in the fight against disease, climate change, and environmental problems: What do you need to do to help your government?
You will take the oath of office as the President of the United States on 20 January. Congratulations on your win. A lot of US voters trust you. That is a tremendous responsibility.
We, the editors of the international scientific journal Nature, lay out why, in our view, science is core to an administration’s ability to maintain the country’s health, prosperity and security. And we outline what researchers will need to help your government to succeed in achieving these goals.
Research and innovation are overlapping domains in which the United States has been world-leading for generations. The work of scientists is very important for health and prosperity. The Human Genome Project has transformed our understanding of diseases. The project added an estimated $1 trillion to the US economy within a decade.
Climate and energy security need to be priorities. There is no question that human activities are warming the planet. Research shows that all nations are vulnerable to severe disruptions from burning fossil fuels.
Disruptive climatic effects are likely to have been a major contributor to the devastating wildfires seen in California this month, to name just the most recent example. There is a health hazard from wildfire smoke. In the United States there are many policies designed to protect the people from the effects of climate change. Your administration has an opportunity to build upon this work.
But the United States cannot tackle climate change or health issues, such as infectious diseases, on its own. The country must continue to work with and, when appropriate, lead other nations through the global organizations and agreements that it is a party to and, in many cases, helped to establish. The international accords are imperfect but can be reformed. The United States and the world will be at greater risk if they don’t have them or withdraw from them. You are urged to engage. Global cooperation is the only viable approach to global problems.
Slashing public sector spending and improving government efficiency are some of the things you want to reform. Researchers are frustrated with various aspects of how the government operates. One of the problems is that some rules may be preventing life-saving treatments from being implemented.
We want you to consult all of your stakeholders, including those who study the problems you’re looking to solve, as well as people who have experienced them, in order to improve your outcomes. The chance of reaching optimal solutions will be provided by this. Useful insights will come from industry. Companies use their experience of experimenting with product and process innovation to help them navigate poorly thought-out regulations. We also encourage you to talk to organizations representing consumers; patients’ groups; researchers studying science and ethics, and science and public policy; and the research departments of regulatory bodies themselves.
Researchers say that for areas such as environmental science and infectious diseases, the next four years could be even more damaging. The Department of Government Efficiency led by billionaire Musk is meant to help reduce the number of unelected bureaucrats who develop regulations. This could include thousands of scientists at the EPA and the Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Trump is also planning to remove employment protections for many federal workers, which would allow him to replace scientists and other specialists with loyal political appointees more easily.
NASA’s science programmes will not be known under a Trump administration. In the past, he has supported space science in some way, such as packing 36 experiments onto his recent space flight, and trying to convince NASA to allow him to use a vehicle to boost the Hubble Space Telescope’s ability to peer into the future. NASA supports a lot of Earth-science studies and those programs may be at risk if Trump goes through with his promises to slash climate research.
The National Quantum Initiative was created by Congress and the Trump administration. The following year, Trump issued an executive order that launched the American Artificial Intelligence Initiative to support US leadership in AI, including guidance on regulating industry without squashing innovation. Trump announced plans in 2020 for more than $1 billion in funding to create 12 national artificial intelligence and QIS research institutes.
Trump has been critical of Biden’s bipartisan 2022 CHIPS and Science Act, which authorized billions of dollars to boost US semiconductor manufacturing, saying that imposing tariffs on commercial rivals in China could achieve the same goal for free. But Trump is unlikely to gut the act, given its contribution to local economies and jobs, says Charles Wessner, who studies science and technology policy at Georgetown University in Washington DC.
And some researchers are nervous about what will happen if companies are left to police themselves when it comes to AI technologies. “I’m in favour of much stronger action from the government on AI regulation,” says Nate Sharadin, a philosopher at Hong Kong University and a research affiliate at the non-profit Center for AI Safety in San Francisco, California. “It was vanishingly unlikely” if Democratic candidate Kamala Harris had won, says Sharadin. It is a joke under Trump.
What Trump 2.0 Means for Science: The Forgotten Landing of Humans to Mars and How Congress Can Stop the Wall on Space Travel in the Trump Era
NASA is interested in sending astronauts to the Moon. The SLS and the crew capsule were built for that effort. But the SLS costs more than $4 billion per launch and is not reusable. The Trump administration could try to cancel the government rocket programme and use private companies, including Musk’s Space X in Hawthorne, Calif., that have developed launch vehicles.
NASA will send astronauts to Mars in the not too distant future. Musk wants people to colonize Mars and is trying to influence NASA to do it sooner using his spaceship, say space-policy researchers. NASA may be pressured to get people to the Moon and then to Mars. “I believe we’re still going to get a lunar landing,” says Laura Forczyk, executive director of space-consulting firm Astralytical in Palm Bay, Florida. “Whether or not Artemis continues into the far future, we don’t know.”
Trump’s choice for NASA administrator, the billionaire private astronaut Jared Isaacman, might also advocate for major changes if he is confirmed. He paid for space travel for him, and he spoke about how waste and delays are part of government contracting.
Meanwhile, China is working on plans to send astronauts to the lunar surface, adding urgency to Trump’s ‘America First’ approach; his administration pledged in 2017 to return humans to the Moon by 2024.
Source: What Trump 2.0 means for science: the likely winners and losers
The Impact of the Trump Campaign on Clean-Energy Reforms in the U.S. and Beyond: The Case for the Department of Energy
Trump might start by trying to reduce agency budgets, which would require action by Congress. The political dynamic has changed because many Republicans are now in favor of Musk calling for massive reductions in federal spending.
Trump’s nominee to lead the EPA, congressman Lee Zeldin of New York, is a long-time supporter of Trump and has a mixed record on supporting EPA budgets and initiatives. If he is confirmed by the Senate, policy analysts are expecting him to reduce staff at the agency and roll back pollution regulations.
There are nonetheless likely to be changes at agencies such as the Department of Energy (DoE), which Trump has tapped oil-industry executive Chris Wright to lead. Federal investments in various clean-energy demonstration projects under the DoE could “fade into the background” under Wright, says Thomas Hochman, director of infrastructure policy at the Foundation for American Innovation in San Francisco.
The United States will exit the 2015 Paris climate agreement a second time, only after Biden rejoins the pact, according to reports. Policy experts say that a move by Trump could help other countries with their climate efforts. But the biggest question for many energy experts is how Trump’s promise to raise tariffs on goods imported from places such as China and Mexico will affect the global transition towards clean energy.