The Maduro Regime and the Oil Exports of Venezuela: Implications for the Venezuelan White House and the U.S.

A free and fair presidential election was agreed to by Venezuela and the lifting of the sanctions was temporarily done last October. Analysts say the deal has been broken by the regime of Nicols Maduro who has imprisoned opposition figures.

That’s because, were he to allow a free and fair election, Maduro would almost certainly lose. And if he left office, he could face the prospect of prison because he faces U.S. charges of narco-terrorism, drug trafficking and corruption. The International Criminal Court is looking into the Maduro regime’s alleged crimes against humanity.

The administration agreed to lift oil sanctions for six months after Maduro envoys — during a meeting with Venezuelan opposition leaders in Barbados last October — signed an agreement laying out ground rules to make this summer’s presidential election more competitive. The deal included a legal process for reinstating banned presidential candidates, like opposition leader María Corina Machado.

“The list [of abuses] is so long,” says Ryan Berg, director of the Americas program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. There is accountability and you need to reimposition the sanctions to show that.

He may have also noticed that the sanctions haven’t turned out so well for the United States, either. Crushing sanctions on the country’s oil sector — designed by the Trump administration to shut down Venezuela’s economy and push Mr. Maduro out of power — are partly to blame for the migrant crisis at the U.S. border, a major political problem for Mr. Biden during an election year. They exacerbated the economic collapse that Venezuela was already experiencing. They stopped investing in the industry, made it hard for Venezuela to borrow money, and made it hard to import food and medicine.

The benefits for the regime were immediate. Last month, Venezuela’s oil exports hit a four-year high. The Biden administration moved too quickly, according to the vice president of the Council of the Americas.

Although the Barbados accord led to the release of 10 Americans jailed in Venezuela and several Venezuelan political prisoners, Maduro continues to oppress his opponents and has expelled a U.N. human rights mission from Venezuela.

The Case for Undemocratic Elections: Venezuela’s Former Congresswoman Vicina Maduro’s Last Electoral Candidate

The election date has been set but the leader of the opposition isn’t on it. Several members of her campaign team have been arrested, and she remains disqualified from the race.

In a free election, polls show that the former congresswoman would beat the president. After 11 years in power, Maduro is deeply unpopular for leading Venezuela into its worst economic crisis in history.

Millions of Venezuela’s citizens have been blocked from voting by the regime. The opposition had insisted on updating the voter registry because nearly 8 million Venezuelans — many of whom oppose Maduro — have fled the country. Instead of making it easier for exiles to vote, the regime has made it harder, says César González, a Venezuelan lawyer and activist who lives in neighboring Colombia.

Francisco Rodríguez, a Venezuelan who teaches international studies at the University of Denver, says that for all of these reasons, the July 28 presidential election is shaping up to be “the most undemocratic election since Venezuela became a democracy in 1958.”