Brazil’s most recent presidential election: Jair Bolsonaro, the Amazon, and the challenge of the COVID-19 assault against Brazilian democracy

On the surface, things seem calm. An outsider wouldn’t believe that a presidential election was about to take place. The flags of Brazil have been removed from the facades, as I can see from the window. There is an ambiguous sign that indicates a pre-emptive response to defeat or calm before the storm. There’s not even much talk among friends and family concerning the election; the lines were drawn in 2018 and have not moved much since then.

Bolsonaro’s assault on democratic institutions has escalated in the run-up to the election too. He has spent more than a year prepping his devout base for a possible vote steal, very similar to the false claims made by former President Donald Trump, a big hero of the Brazilian leader.

Then there’s the environment. So far this year, more forest fires have been recorded in the Brazilian Amazon than in all of 2021, which was already catastrophic enough. Several Brazilian states have been covered by dense smoke since the beginning of September. There has been an increase in the number of Indigenous deaths and environmental agencies have been dismantled. It’s crucial to rethink these disastrous environmental policies.

Brazil is going to the polls on Sunday in a national vote that will bring about a new president, who will have to grapple with an economic crisis, Amazon destruction and doubts over the viability of Latin America’s largest democracy.

On the right is current President Jair Bolsonaro, a brash nationalist widely criticized for escalating destruction of the Amazon, bungling Brazil’s COVID-19 response and casting doubts on the country’s electoral system in the run-up to election day.

A win by da Silva would be a stunning political comeback. The 76-year-old former metalworker led Brazil from 2003 to 2010. A boom in commodity prices resulted in the expansion of social welfare programs that helped millions rise out of poverty. Leaving office, da Silva was widely regarded as one of the most popular politicians in the world. He received a prison sentence after being caught up in a corruption investigation called “Operation Car Wash”. Da Silva has always maintained his innocence, and was released in 2019 after spending 580 days in prison. His conviction was annulled.

Brazil has among the world’s highest confirmed coronavirus deaths per capita. It has struggled to emerge from global economic turmoil stoked by fallout from the pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Economic problems, high inflation and discontent over inequality and corruption have led to a shift to the left in other countries in the region, including Chile and Colombia.

Despite trailing in the polls, Bolsonaro insists he’ll win outright on election day, and avoid a second round run-off. He has long claimed that if he doesn’t, it would only be because of widespread voter fraud — just as he alleged, without providing proof, in 2018. Bolsonero is not the first to claim that his country’s voting machines are vulnerable to tampering. As a former army captain, he remains close to the military, which he has said should monitor the election. Recently, Bolsonaro appeared to cool his rhetoric, while also maneuvering a deal for the military to monitor a sampling of voting machines on election day. Since 1996 Brazil has used electronic voting machines and never incurred any significant fraud.

Polls will open from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m. Sunday Brasília time (7 a.m.-4 p.m. ET). Congressional and gubernatorial elections will also be taking place. The results could come out early in Braslia because of the fast voting system. If no one wins 50% of the vote, the top two candidates will face off in a second round.

Consider the consequences of two recent votes — the federal election in Australia and the Conservative Party leadership contest in Britain — and the potential consequences of two upcoming ones: a presidential runoff this month in Brazil and U.S. midterms in November.

All these countries matter hugely in climate terms. The United States, Britain and Australia are some of the largest carbon dioxide emitting countries in the world. Brazil has the largest share of the AMAZON rainforest, which store vast amounts of carbon dioxide for the rest of the world.

In May, voters ousted the conservative coalition that had championed coal and gas and made Australia one of the climate laggards of the world. Within weeks, a new government led by the Labor Party had updated the country’s international climate targets under the Paris accord.

He will be fighting an uphill battle, say analysts and researchers who spoke to Nature. Lula will need to forge his own alliances if he wants to pass climate legislation, since many of Bolsonlio’s allies were elected to the Brazilian Congress. He will also have to contend with Bolsonaro’s legacy, finding ways to reverse actions the former leader took against environmental protection.

The rainforest takes in about one-quarter of all the carbon dioxide absorbed by land on Earth. Research shows1, however, that deforestation is transforming the region from a carbon sink into an emissions source, and scientists worry that in about a decade, the Amazon could reach a tipping point — when disrupted rain cycles and biodiversity loss could convert it into a savannah-like area — if logging goes unchecked.

To put Brazil on a path to net-zero deforestation, the new government should start by strengthening surveillance of the rainforest’s health and use the data to influence environmental policy, Unterstell says. Restoring funding and staff to Brazil’s National Institute for Space Research, which uses satellites to monitor tree cover and greenhouse-gas emissions, would be an important step in that direction.